Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

[Quietace]

Looks like it warms up starting Sunday thru at least Tuesday.  The 29th thru the 2nd.  Sure hope not.

Spring is closer than one may think
Next thing you know you will be in shorts and a t-shirt fishing...

[Guest]

Looks like it warms up starting Sunday thru at least Tuesday.  The 29th thru the 2nd.  Sure hope not.

Spring is closer than one may think
Next thing you know you will be in shorts and a t-shirt fishing...

I already was out in a tee shirt and shorts this weekend and yesterday.

[Dunnzoo]

http://www.usatoday.com/…/supercomputer-reston-no…/80290546/

I'm near Orlando, should I knock and see if they will let me in?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

At the end of February this will go into the books as the second warmest Met Winter in history, although there's still a shot at number one.

The fact is since 2001/02 we have had the 3 warmest Met winters in recorded history. 2001/02, 2011/12 and 2015/16.

I do laugh, or cry inside when I see how the younger members here think the lakes or ponds or back yards freezing over is not a normal thing anymore. When I was a kid you started skating in December and pretty much did until early March. We never had winters this warm and that's just a fact. I know we've had more snow since the winters have gotten warmer but I'm not sure it's worth the tradeoff.

The average temperature in NYC from December to February in the 1960's was 32.6, in the 1970's 33.7, in the 1980's 34.9 and in the 1990's it was 36.4. That is a huge increase for a 3 month period in 30 years time. It seems to have leveled off since then, and so far this decade it is 35.9. I'm not loving these trends however despite the extra snow.

[Grselig]

At the end of February this will go into the books as the second warmest Met Winter in history, although there's still a shot at number one.

The fact is since 2001/02 we have had the 3 warmest Met winters in recorded history. 2001/02, 2011/12 and 2015/16.

I do laugh, or cry inside when I see how the younger members here think the lakes or ponds or back yards freezing over is not a normal thing anymore. When I was a kid you started skating in December and pretty much did until early March. We never had winters this warm and that's just a fact. I know we've had more snow since the winters have gotten warmer but I'm not sure it's worth the tradeoff.

The average temperature in NYC from December to February in the 1960's was 32.6, in the 1970's 33.7, in the 1980's 34.9 and in the 1990's it was 36.4. That is a huge increase for a 3 month period in 30 years time. It seems to have leveled off since then, and so far this decade it is 35.9. I'm not loving these trends however despite the extra snow.

Are the warm winters a result of global warming ? Is it just weather phenomena.

You are correct. I remember playing on the frozen ice with my brother in the back yard. That was fun! Kids today don't know what a winter is!!!!

[Math23x7]

[NjWeatherGuy]

Another big amped up cutter, what else is new? Nice look on satellite and 60+ temps and T-storms possible with this one IMO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/h5-loop-vis.html

[NjWeatherGuy]

Showing moderate lifting and CAPE values.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=02&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=18&fhour=39¶meter=PLI&level=30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[NjWeatherGuy]

High helicity values (0z NAM)

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=02&model_dd=24&model_init_hh=00&fhour=27¶meter=HLCY&level=3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[frank 638]

This has been a strange winter this year .we went from the warmest Dec ever with flowers growing on the trees to a record blizzard in Jan to a record - 2 on valentine's day to almost a rainy Feb .I wonder what march will have for us

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

In NYC since records have been officially recorded since 1870 the average temperature during Met winter is 33.3 degrees and the average seasonal snowfall is 28.9 inches.

In the last 30 years including this one, the average temperature during met winter is 35.8 and the average seasonal snowfall is 28.7 inches.

This year in Central Park there has been 31.2 inches of snow 26.8 of which came in a single day and melted within a week. The average temperature has been 40.9 the second highest ever, more than 5 degrees above the 30 year norm and over 7 and half degrees above the historical norm.

I'm just baffled that anyone in NYC can call this winter a B or better. Even against the historical norms, and if you want to pretend the snowfall was distributed evenly throughout the winter, there is no way this winter is anything better than a C and IMO that's being generous.

[Frank_Wx]

CP there was a historic storm from DC to NYC and NYC got below zero. 2 facts that may not even be seen for another decade for all we know. This winter is definitely a B in my mind. Obviously everyone has their own point of view, especially if you live north. Some people's B are others people's D's.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Going with B- here, historic storm was great, but snowpack didnt hang around, rest of winter dominated by C-3" events that are gone later that day or by the next due to marginal crappy temps and low precip rates. Getting tired of this same old song and dance.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

CP there was a historic storm from DC to NYC and NYC got below zero. 2 facts that may not even be seen for another decade for all we know. This winter is definitely a B in my mind. Obviously everyone has their own point of view, especially if you live north. Some people's B are others people's D's.

I think part of it may also be generational Frank. People 30 and under are accustomed to these milder winters, where ice is often not present for  long if at all, and snowfall is  somewhat higher but transient in nature and snow cover is often short lived. Very different winters than from what I and anyone over 50 grew up in.

Part of it also goes to the old argument would you rather have one 30 inch storm that melts quickly in a historically mild winter and that's your winter, or 5 six inch storms distributed throughput the winter, in a winter where temperatures are at least historically normal or even bellow normal. I'll take the later every time, but everyone has their own opinion.

[Frank_Wx]

CP there was a historic storm from DC to NYC and NYC got below zero. 2 facts that may not even be seen for another decade for all we know. This winter is definitely a B in my mind. Obviously everyone has their own point of view, especially if you live north. Some people's B are others people's D's.

I think part of it may also be generational Frank. People 30 and under are accustomed to these milder winters, where ice is often not present for  long if at all, and snowfall is  somewhat higher but transient in nature and snow cover is often short lived. Very different winters than from what I and anyone over 50 grew up in.

That's fair.

[Taffy]

CP, the winters are very different. I grew up in Boston so that may make a difference. It snowed several times a week if only a few inches. There were many more major storms and lot's of snow days. Snow days were rare for my kids growing up in NJ. we had them but more delayed openings.

[algae888]

this winter was not as bad as 97-98, 01-02, 11-12, and most of the 80's. what makes this winter seem so bad is that the last 3 winters were very good. also i'm in the camp of 5 or 6 6" snow storms rather than one big one. the fun of winter is tracking storms and this year we only had one to track. i'm not a fan of extreme cold so normal temps work for me with plenty of snow chances. I would grade this year a C so far and if we get another snow storm I would go up to a B. also most of the interior north east this winter was an epic fail. places like Binghamton Albany right up into nne.

[jmanley32]

I remember when I was a kid it snowing constantly, some light long duration storms and some really big ones. Def not like now when we can barely keep snow around.

[algae888]

the storm tracks were somewhat odd this year. either they were off the coast or well to our west. no middle ground and no miller b's. I guess it's because we never had any blocking in the north atlantic. HP to our north was non existent this year.

[billg315]

I think during warmer than normal/less snowy than normal winters we tend to romanticize past winters and ascribe more significance than is probably warranted to the present mild winter. I can tell you that I remember much warmer, snowless winters in the late 80's and early 90s. I went about 5 years without a snow day from school (maybe we had one random one for a 6" storm that I've forgotten). At the time people were just starting to talk about global warming and some were attributing the snowless winters (erroneously) to that phenomena (theory). I honestly started to wonder if I was ever going to see another really snowy winter. We did not get even one historic mega-blizzard like the one most of us experienced this January. I would have killed for just one. Then in the mid-90s we hit a stretch of cold, snowy winters. Since that time it has been my observation that it has been pretty much cyclical. A mild winter or two here, a cold snowy winter or two there. For all the depression around here about this winter (which featured an historic blizzard that may be the greatest snowstorm I've lived through personally) I feel reasonably confident that once this El Nino is banished that in the next winter or two we'll get another cold and snowy winter to make the snow weenies happy. And then, I'll have to listen to the people out there (and believe me, there are many) who HATE winter complain again, like I listened to the last two winters.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I think during warmer than normal/less snowy than normal winters we tend to romanticize past winters and ascribe more significance than is probably warranted to the present mild winter. I can tell you that I remember much warmer, snowless winters in the late 80's and early 90s. I went about 5 years without a snow day from school (maybe we had one random one for a 6" storm that I've forgotten). At the time people were just starting to talk about global warming and some were attributing the snowless winters (erroneously) to that phenomena (theory). I honestly started to wonder if I was ever going to see another really snowy winter. We did not get even one historic mega-blizzard like the one most of us experienced this January. I would have killed for just one.  Then in the mid-90s we hit a stretch of cold, snowy winters. Since that time it has been my observation that it has been pretty much cyclical. A mild winter or two here, a cold snowy winter or two there. For all the depression around here about this winter (which featured an historic blizzard that may be the greatest snowstorm I've lived through personally) I feel reasonably confident that once this El Nino is banished that in the next winter or two we'll get another cold and snowy winter to make the snow weenies happy. And then, I'll have to listen to the people out there (and believe me, there are many) who HATE winter complain again, like I listened to the last two winters.

Billg:

You lived through winters in the 1980's with less snow than this year I'm sure, the 1980's had less snow than any decade in recorded weather history, but you never lived through a warmer winter than this one in the 1980's because the only winter warmer than the one we are now living through was the winter of 2001/02. This winter will end as the second warmest ever and the winter of 2011/12 is the third warmest. The 1980's did not have any winters that are even in the top 10 of all time warmest.

The average temperature in NYC so far this winter is 41.0. The warmest winter in the 1980's was the El Nino season of 1982/83 that averaged 37.9 degrees more than 3 degrees lower than this current season. I don't know if you read my discussion with Frank earlier but the gist of it was that winters use to be colder which they were, there was less snow at times but the snow stayed around a lot longer, as did the ice. Remember these are averages not rules.

In the late 1970's the talk around the weather world was are we entering another ice age? There were many articles written and it was the cover story in Time magazine, showing an almost solidly frozen Hudson river right in front of the World Trade Center. The average winter temperature in NYC in 1976/77 was 28.5 degrees, almost 3 degrees colder than last winter which everyone thought was unbelievably cold. Of course several years after that as winters started to warm, global warming hysteria started. I won't even discuss that subject because I'm not bright enough to know why our winters are warmer. If it is human induced I'd like to know why a mere 12,000 years ago our area was underneath a one mile high glacier and within a couple of hundred years our climate warmed enough that a 5,000 foot thick ice sheet melted as our globe suddenly warmed. What caused that?

It's perception and what you're use to in your lifetime. From my perspective this is the third worst winter ever, only 2001/02 and 1997/98 were worse but 2011/12 was close, and as I was saying to Frank that may be a generational thing.

There are no rights or wrongs here, everyone has a different perspective.

[Guest]

*steps to imaginary podium and makes throat clearing noise* Every winter, I'm here checking out opinions, reactions and analysis on weather that will affect an area so different from where I live that it's like another world. It's gotten to the point that every winter I go from being "Dad" to "Weatherboy". I've lost track of the number of sentences I've started with "Well Frank says...". And while I'm fascinated by the analysis, the analog years and I have nothing but the utmost respect watching guys show levels of understanding in a hobby that I struggled to show getting a college education, I'm still a sucker for "the moment". And it's with that in mind that I present an entirely amateur opinion to a lot of guys that have the acumen needed to make a living do it.

Three of the most remarkable winters I can remember in my life have taken place over the last 5 years. Last year for the mind numbing cold and the other two for an almost total lack of snow. Barring any additional accumulation, DC will have gotten more snow from their blizzard than I received in those winters combined. But for me, that's what will make these winters stand out. If next winter brings the average 37" in 6 installments of 6" each, then I'll look back on it as an average winter. I have no recollection of 1993's winter whatsoever outside of a magical 3 day period where it seemed like it would snow forever. Was it a spectacular winter overall? No clue. But it will always be an A+ winter in my mind. The only other winter that even comes close was one from the late 70s when a storm dumped two feet in the Mohawk Valley where I grew up.

My point piggy backs off of CP's: It's all about perception and personal preference. Some people want a winter that's only remarkable for how incredibly average it was. It was cold. It snowed. It was cold. The snow stayed there. It was cold. It snowed. It was cold. Then spring came and it was warm. For myself? Like I said, I'm very much an "at that moment" fan of weather. It's nice to look out and see the snow covered ground, but it's nothing compared to being the only person out in the street when the snow is falling and the wind is blowing. Obviously, I didn't get that this year, but it's still been an interesting winter. After all, it's not too often you go from historic cold to seeing people in shorts 48 hours later. (Even though I live in an area where a lot of the people who wear shorts shouldn't be allowed to.)

So with what will likely be remembered by most as a pretty sub-par winter slowly heading towards an end, I wondering what it was that kept you guys going all winter. If anybody wants to explain, I'd appreciate it and if one of the mods feels this is an unnecessary post, feel free to delete it with no hard feelings. Thank you. *steps away from the podium*

[docstox12]

Excellent discussions above here.For us in the Lower Hudson Valley, I have to go with a "D", snow total way below average.The folks S and E can call it a "B" for the huge blizzard and the record setting cold night in NYC.I'm good with that.For the poor guys N of I-84, this winter is a solid "F".

CP's average winter temp. study says it all.Winters , for one reason or another, are getting warmer .The snow totals are also way up over the last 15 years.This fits in to what the global warmists argue, warmer winters but stormier and snowier.I have been watching winter since 1960 and have lived and seen it all.Whether the warmists are right or not, I do not know but I see what I see.

Sadly, I was thinking this late Feb. time would produce a major snowstorm.This recent storm could have done it but too far west and no cold air.We are rapidly running out of time now.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

CP there was a historic storm from DC to NYC and NYC got below zero. 2 facts that may not even be seen for another decade for all we know. This winter is definitely a B in my mind. Obviously everyone has their own point of view, especially if you live north. Some people's B are others people's D's.

I think part of it may also be generational Frank. People 30 and under are accustomed to these milder winters, where ice is often not present for  long if at all, and snowfall is  somewhat higher but transient in nature and snow cover is often short lived. Very different winters than from what I and anyone over 50 grew up in.

That's fair.

LOL to the banner Frank, I just noticed it now.

I'm honored just to be mentioned.

[docstox12]

CP there was a historic storm from DC to NYC and NYC got below zero. 2 facts that may not even be seen for another decade for all we know. This winter is definitely a B in my mind. Obviously everyone has their own point of view, especially if you live north. Some people's B are others people's D's.

I think part of it may also be generational Frank. People 30 and under are accustomed to these milder winters, where ice is often not present for  long if at all, and snowfall is  somewhat higher but transient in nature and snow cover is often short lived. Very different winters than from what I and anyone over 50 grew up in.

That's fair.

LOL to the banner Frank,     I just noticed it now.

I'm honored just to be mentioned.

Frank, Frank, Frank.... a true "spit out my coffee, ROTFLMAO moment with that CP banner.Friggn' HILARIOUS!!!!!

[Grselig]

Ok looks like a very bad winter for many of us. I am still happy that some of us found gold in a pile of Sh.. with Roidzilla

[essexcountypete]

Saw the banner and had to come to banter to see what was up. April Fools a little early? LOL!

I'm loving the discussion about the perception of the weather over time, and thank you CP for helping me understand my own bias. I'm 47 so I kind of fall in that range you mention and my overall perception of winter as an adult is through the eyes of a child growing up through the 70's. There always seemed to be sledding at Mountainside Park, and Edgemont Pond was always frozen solid for skating every year that I can remember.

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