01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible

oldtimer wrote:Is the timing more like Sat-Sun then Fri ??

No, late Friday into Saturday

frank, is this a 24 hour event? more?

Anyone see the CIPS analogs? Apparently they're epic. I'm not even sure what the hell they are...? Lol

Expect shifts to continue.

I'm hoping it doesn't mean too much and it probably doesn't this far out but almost every run today , especially this last one has most of the western 2/3 of long island in a precip hole. Areas west and south as well as east and north get more than double the QPF. I know it's the op runs but any validity to this? Or is it just way too difficult to pin down at this point which is how I feel

LOOKY SEE EVERY BLIZZARD FOR NE EVVVVVVVER CANSIPS ANALOGS - MOMMA MIA 2 X OVER

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2016011812

SoulSingMG wrote:Anyone see the CIPS analogs? Apparently they're epic. I'm not even sure what the hell they are...? Lol

They find the top 15 analogs this setup best resembles and male an impact map out of it. They were very accurate last year. Here is what they're thinking. AMAZING

Frank_Wx wrote:So...18z GFS was incredible

Yes, yes it was

Frank_Wx wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Anyone see the CIPS analogs? Apparently they're epic. I'm not even sure what the hell they are...? Lol

They find the top 15 analogs this setup best resembles and male an impact map out of it. They were very accurate last year. Here is what they're thinking. AMAZING

Niiiiiiiiiice! Yes, I figured all that white meant something good. ;-) Thx for explanation, Frank!

syosnow94 wrote:I'm hoping it doesn't mean too much and it probably doesn't this far out but almost every run today , especially this last one has most of the western 2/3 of long island in a precip hole. Areas west and south as well as east and north get more than double the QPF. I know it's the op runs but any validity to this?  Or is it just way too difficult to pin down at this point which is how I feel

It's because the storm closes H5 so early it almost snows itself out by the time it gets to us. We actually wanted a later phase than what most guidance is showing if we want Roidzilla amounts over our area. If it's an early phase, we'll get the Godzilla amounts. It's a win win haha

SoulSingMG wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Anyone see the CIPS analogs? Apparently they're epic. I'm not even sure what the hell they are...? Lol

They find the top 15 analogs this setup best resembles and male an impact map out of it. They were very accurate last year. Here is what they're thinking. AMAZING

Niiiiiiiiiice! Yes, I figured all that white meant something good. ;-) Thx for explanation, Frank!

Here's the full list. Some of these dates are jaw dropping 

Frank_Wx wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:I'm hoping it doesn't mean too much and it probably doesn't this far out but almost every run today , especially this last one has most of the western 2/3 of long island in a precip hole. Areas west and south as well as east and north get more than double the QPF. I know it's the op runs but any validity to this?  Or is it just way too difficult to pin down at this point which is how I feel

It's because the storm closes H5 so early it almost snows itself out by the time it gets to us. We actually wanted a later phase than what most guidance is showing if we want Roidzilla amounts over our area. If it's an early phase, we'll get the Godzilla amounts. It's a win win haha

Sort of want it to close off and stall off ACY, not down off MD.

Got ya frank. But the heavier precipitation extends due west up to my latitude and even due ne at my latitude. Just confusing

syosnow94 wrote:Mike Franscessa on WFAN sports radio is talking about rumors of 2 feet of snow on sarurday

we can put the models away when he brings up snow

syosnow94 wrote:Got ya frank. But the heavier precipitation extends due west up to my latitude and even due ne at my latitude. Just confusing

Because the H5 low is actually S&W of you. Those on the NE quadrant are not getting the same dynamics as those on the W-NW quadrant.

haaaaa

Frank_Wx wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:I'm hoping it doesn't mean too much and it probably doesn't this far out but almost every run today , especially this last one has most of the western 2/3 of long island in a precip hole. Areas west and south as well as east and north get more than double the QPF. I know it's the op runs but any validity to this?  Or is it just way too difficult to pin down at this point which is how I feel

It's because the storm closes H5 so early it almost snows itself out by the time it gets to us. We actually wanted a later phase than what most guidance is showing if we want Roidzilla amounts over our area. If it's an early phase, we'll get the Godzilla amounts. It's a win win haha

And this is what the 18z GFS did verbatim....imagine that actually verifies good Lord Alimighty

Frank_Wx wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Anyone see the CIPS analogs? Apparently they're epic. I'm not even sure what the hell they are...? Lol

They find the top 15 analogs this setup best resembles and male an impact map out of it. They were very accurate last year. Here is what they're thinking. AMAZING

Niiiiiiiiiice! Yes, I figured all that white meant something good. ;-) Thx for explanation, Frank!

Here's the full list. Some of these dates are jaw dropping 

Boxing Day Blizzard, one of my all-time favorite Christmas gifts, is in there!!!

Northwest trend on the GFS Ensembles continues!!! Another 50-75 miles baby!!!

RB Youre referring to the location of the center of the LP?

Holy crap, 35-45mph sustained winds inland...

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_18z/gfsloop.html#picture

lglickman1 wrote:RB Youre referring to the location of the center of the LP?

Yup

I'm also hearing what Frank mentioned earlier: WINDS are some of the most impressive forecasted in a Nor'easter than many can remember seeing.

rb924119 wrote:Northwest trend on the GFS Ensembles continues!!! Another 50-75 miles baby!!!

18z? Post maps or your banned

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Northwest trend on the GFS Ensembles continues!!! Another 50-75 miles baby!!!

18z? Post maps or your banned

18z



12z

More than 50% inside and more amped than even the Op, which would steer the surface low further north, especially when compared to the mean.....

18z Ensemble MEAN: