01/22/16 - 01/23/16 Update #2 - Models Not Backing Off

Yes the 6z is extremely encouraging.

I noticed the 6z GFS shafts CT and the HV, weird

That map is without ratios. The orange Rockland area is 10-15 inches in that run with ratios more likely 15-22. I'll sign up for that scrooing right now.

jake732 wrote:Yes the 6z is extremely encouraging.

Jake for us we will take euro,6z, late phase all this to cut down on mixing issues of they even occur

Waiting on the 6z GFS ensembles suite. If they show they are N/W of the OP, that would be a very good sign. I would then throw away the 0z Euro at that point.

Frank Whats it looking like on LI ?

Honestly I wouldn't discount anything yet

We want a later closing off and more east track. (just not too much so the HV people cash in too) This is not a bad Euro run. Much colder. A 50/50 blend between Euro and GFS would be perfect.

Wow I am too like Ryan thinking the jackpot is going to end up over the area look how much it moved toward us on o6z. The nws knows their stuff I'm guessing they right that euro had a issue last night.

syosnow94 wrote:We want a later closing off and more east track.  (just not too much so the HV people cash in too) This is not a bad Euro run.  Much colder.  A 50/50 blend between Euro and GFS would be perfect.

Syo, Don't leave out the peeps in EPA.  

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:That map is without ratios. The orange Rockland area is 10-15 inches in that run with ratios more likely 15-22. I'll sign up for that scrooing right now.

This. We are going to see our first accumulating snowfall! It seems that the storm MAY stay S&E of the area especially if you are leaning toward the Euro solution like DT and Joe Cioffi explain in their write-ups, BUT this is going to be an AMAZING storm. Nothing etched in stone and any deviations in track will yield huge differences in conditions. We all have to sit back and realize that there could be sharp cut offs, fringe snows, and yes jackpot snow accumulations, and we don't yet know where the final track will be. Maybe this should be in banter, but you get the idea

The 06z gfs has a sharp cutoff at ct boarder what is cause of this very close for me to have the 15 plus shown or 6 to 12. Not gping to stress over snow maps still gping to b changes. But imo for the better.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:That map is without ratios. The orange Rockland area is 10-15 inches in that run with ratios more likely 15-22. I'll sign up for that scrooing right now.

These overnight runs CP have me thinking more like 6 to 12 for us while S and E YET AGAIN gets more,LOL.Of course, it is still very early here and a jog this way or that could turn things our way.I''ll be watching Lee two nights in a row and I trust his judgement.

How did the Euro Para run compare? Anyone know?

I'm hearing EURO PARALLEL was a huge hit for our area, brought system further north than than the Op

EPAWA: "Good morning... aside from the European model OP run with its convective feedback issues last night, we are still on course. Godzilla today?"

Radz wrote:How did the Euro Para run compare? Anyone know?

I heard someone said at American wx board that it was a big hit for the NYC metro area. Similar to the GFS. Can't confirm that though without maps.

Any word on the 6z GFS ensembles???

SoulSingMG wrote:I'm hearing EURO PARALLEL was a huge hit for our area, brought system further north than than the Op

Good to hear! Was wondering if it would mirror the reg OP run

nutleyblizzard wrote:

Radz wrote:How did the Euro Para run compare? Anyone know?

I heard someone said at American wx board that it was a big hit for the NYC metro area. Similar to the GFS. Can't confirm that though without maps.

Seems those maps are hard to come by

Radz wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:I'm hearing EURO PARALLEL was a huge hit for our area, brought system further north than than the Op

Good to hear! Was wondering if it would mirror the reg OP run

And here's the crazy part; it was OTS yesterday. Lol. Still a lot TBD with this event. But its top analog
is the B_____ of 96.

So as stated over the last couple of days the trends we see yest, today and tonight need to be digested and taken with a grain of salt.  I am concerned by a few things.  Yes people think the Euro has convective feedback issue, and yes I would like to believe that, but I am concerned by the fact that both the Euro(for several runs now), and the CMC are showing similar things.  And that is the idea that by the time the main LP makes it to us the precip shield seems to fall apart or better stated spread out away from the center of the main low and we get more of an elongated LP with a second lobe popping and these crazy precip shields.  For now see my write up from yesterday morning: (about halfway down the page) https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t632p125-01-22-16-01-23-16-update-1-historic-storm-possible  This occlusion of the LP is a normal process in such a set up, but typically signals the beginning of the end to the system.  

What I am worried about with what the euro and CMC are showing are an ULL that closes off too soon, and the normal maturation 500mb trough and associated LP associated with the 500mb short wave embedded within the 500mb trough, is at the normal tail end  of its life cycle by the time it gets to us because of how and when the 500mb features evolve.  I will have more on this after the 12z runs as I want to see if this is simply the normal waffling by models at this time frame, or if this could be real.

Doc I thing we get are about to get screwed again don't mean to be negative but just get ready don't tell cp

morning everyone , being I don't know how to read the maps above but reading all your comments makes me excited, so with this storm are we going to have strong winds? I am all up for huge snow storm but not up for losing power and pipes freezing.

Bernie Rayno's latest: http://bit.ly/1Zym292

People are worried about the Euro; and I get that. I really do. BUT DID ANYBODY SEE THE CONTROL????

Up to 60mph in some spots winds will be a big big problem