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01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

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01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 29 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:49 pm

@Dtone wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:i was watching 3 meteorologist and the one i trust is nick gregory because he nailed the blizzard of 96 and 03 and 09
nick gregory has 7 to 12 for nyc and parts of long island and 4 to 7 north and east
lonnie quinn has 4 to 7 for nyc long island and parts of westchester and 2 to4 for north and east
news 12 i dont know why 3 to 6 for everyone

News 12 is almost a non factor imo. Only slightly better than NY1.

The storm exiting the coast and heading due east to SSE seems so bizzare. What conditions would cause that,  I've been looking for a logical explanation.  

I offered a prett darn good one earlier but no one seemed interested.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:53 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@Dtone wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:i was watching 3 meteorologist and the one i trust is nick gregory because he nailed the blizzard of 96 and 03 and 09
nick gregory has 7 to 12 for nyc and parts of long island and 4 to 7 north and east
lonnie quinn has 4 to 7 for nyc long island and parts of westchester and 2 to4 for north and east
news 12 i dont know why 3 to 6 for everyone

News 12 is almost a non factor imo. Only slightly better than NY1.

The storm exiting the coast and heading due east to SSE seems so bizzare. What conditions would cause that,  I've been looking for a logical explanation.  

I offered a prett darn good one earlier but no one seemed interested.  

Now you know that's true lol Come on now aha What was it?

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Post by hyde345 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:55 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Here's my First Call ladies and gents (note that this was based on all data up to and including 12z runs today):

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 29 Jan22-10

I'm not going to give an in-depth explanation, as I'm sure Frank will do so later tonight, but if you want me to just let me know. Anyway, I did not feel confident enough to 1) bring some of the higher totals through the Philadelphia region and into parts of central New Jersey, and 2) designate a region for greater than 18". I'm sure there will be localized spots that see more than that, but based on what I'm seeing I don't feel like those values will be common enough to warrant denotation. For anybody that this map angers (including myself), I sincerely apologize.

Wow. You are going to piss off a lot of people with that map, lol. It doesn't matter for me in Mid Hudson because I know I'm getting next to nothing.
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Post by RJB8525 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:56 pm

unless things start to change RB your map is probably spot on too i can see Frank having a very similar map
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Post by snow247 Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:56 pm

@kaos00723 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@snow247 wrote:
@jake732 wrote: ‏@NEweatherHQ  
Hudson Valley into Western Connecticut is a tough one. I'd go with 6-12 inches right now. Potential for a lot more.

Brave call by whoever that is.

Obviously someone that knows nothing about forecasting. But how I wish they were somehow right.

No offense to anyone here but most of you aren't good at actual forecasting either. Reading models and maps maybe, but forecasting, not really.

You need to take common sense and decades of weather knowledge into consideration when forecasting weather, not just what guidance tells you.

Common sense tells us this:


  • Storms usually exit on the same latitude that they entered.
  • Coastal storms don't normally head dead East Southeast all of a sudden out of nowhere and for no reason. Most Mets agree that this simply doesn't make sense.
  • There is still a good amount of room for the storm to move North, there isn't nearly enough nearby blocking it from doing so.
  • The ocean waters are very, very warm still which will drop the pressure of this storm much more than what the models suggest and most likely bomb it out.


Of course none of this could happen and the Euro has been correct all along. That's why Meteorologists like Bernie Sanders make the big bucks and stick to their original forecast from the start without freaking out about every little shift in the models. Accuweather has been consistent on this storm from the start and will make their final determinations by tomorrow evening which is what everyone else should be doing for a storm like this. You really have no idea what's going to happen until it happens like so many times before. It's fun to see what the models are doing and trying to determine what this thing is going to do but in the end common sense tells us that the models are probably having some minor difficulties with the track of this storm once it hits the warm Atlantic waters and anything can happen come Saturday morning. Either way it's best to prepare for snow and/or power outages regardless of what's going to happen. cat

Interesting points you have there, nice first post.
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:00 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I believe boxing day was written off by this time too and look what happened.

Absolutely. Went to bed "tonight" MAD only to wake Christmas AM the next day to a complete flip and blizzard warnings by noon for the next day. Never forget it.
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Post by Snow88 Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:01 pm

18z JMA is still showing a lot of snow for many areas. This model never wavered at all.

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 29 Ibhzfa
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Post by snow247 Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:07 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I believe boxing day was written off by this time too and look what happened.

Absolutely. Went to bed "tonight" MAD only to wake Christmas AM the next day to a complete flip and blizzard warnings by noon for the next day. Never forget it.

Same happened with me, I remember that well.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:08 pm

@Snow88 wrote:18z JMA is still showing a lot of snow for many areas. This model never wavered at all.

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 29 Ibhzfa
the brightest green is converted only 6 inches backed off big time it's in mm.
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Post by snow247 Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:09 pm

RPM!!!!!!!!!!!! WOW

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 29 IMG_20160121_190522.jpg.a802b9cb6f0a33b1460b9efae89a36ea
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Post by lglickman1 Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:13 pm

Are any of these models worth listening to?

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Post by snow247 Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:14 pm

Extra balloons being launched tonight... I think.

CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...

CWD WILL BE DECLARED AT 21/1200Z AND EXTEND THROUGH 24/1200Z DUE
TO ANTICIPATED IMPACTS FROM A LATE WEEK WINTER STORM IMPACTING
THE U.S. EAST COAST.

IN SUPPORT OF MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF A LATE WEEK WINTER
STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE U.S. EAST COAST, SPECIAL SOUNDINGS
ARE REQUESTED BEGINNING TODAY AT 1800Z.  ALL REGIONAL DIRECTORS
HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE SCHEDULE BELOW.  IF
THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS, CONTACT YOUR REGION OR THE SDM.

*** SPECIAL SOUNDING REQUESTS ***

CENTRAL REGION: ENTIRE REGION FROM 20/1800Z TO 22/0600Z

SOUTHERN REGION: EXCLUDING TX AND FL...FROM TX EASTWARD BEGINNING
FROM 21/1800Z TO 22/1800Z.

EASTERN REGION:  WFOs RNK, GSO, MHX, IAD, PIT, OKX, ALB, CHH
BEGINNING FROM 21/1800Z TO 23/0600Z.

READY/SDM/NCO/NCEP
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Post by RJB8525 Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:17 pm

@snow247 wrote:Extra balloons being launched tonight... I think.

CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...

CWD WILL BE DECLARED AT 21/1200Z AND EXTEND THROUGH 24/1200Z DUE
TO ANTICIPATED IMPACTS FROM A LATE WEEK WINTER STORM IMPACTING
THE U.S. EAST COAST.

IN SUPPORT OF MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF A LATE WEEK WINTER
STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE U.S. EAST COAST, SPECIAL SOUNDINGS
ARE REQUESTED BEGINNING TODAY AT 1800Z.  ALL REGIONAL DIRECTORS
HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE SCHEDULE BELOW.  IF
THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS, CONTACT YOUR REGION OR THE SDM.

*** SPECIAL SOUNDING REQUESTS ***

CENTRAL REGION: ENTIRE REGION FROM 20/1800Z TO 22/0600Z

SOUTHERN REGION: EXCLUDING TX AND FL...FROM TX EASTWARD BEGINNING
FROM 21/1800Z TO 22/1800Z.

EASTERN REGION:  WFOs RNK, GSO, MHX, IAD, PIT, OKX, ALB, CHH
BEGINNING FROM 21/1800Z TO 23/0600Z.

READY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

the NWS sends these in to get a reading etc like they do with tropical storms?

i heard about this on TWC sending balloons
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:19 pm

@sroc4 wrote:It looks like at H5 on the CMC the trough is neutral by hr 30 and remains so by hr 42 or so. At that time the Trough actually tilts back pos intead of tilting neg. due to the S/w coming over top of the western ridge forcing it to roll over the ULL.    The LP is just set to come up the coast perfectly before it actaully elongates and jumps east.  Precip shield is immedietaly strung out. This is all because trough goes from neutral to pos instead of remaining neutral or going neg.  Basically the flow becomes progressive and the LP weakens and elongates

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 29 <img src=" />
01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 29 Gem_z500_vort_us_8
01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 29 Gem_z500_vort_us_9


Found it lol Nice!! Something also to take notice of is your jet positions relative to the lows. The jets are cruising off to the east, and actually, this system is being driven almost entirely by the northern branch until it gets well offshore, and the northern branch is quick to move out to the east so the surface has to follow.

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Post by snow247 Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:19 pm

@RJB8525 wrote:
@snow247 wrote:Extra balloons being launched tonight... I think.

CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...

CWD WILL BE DECLARED AT 21/1200Z AND EXTEND THROUGH 24/1200Z DUE
TO ANTICIPATED IMPACTS FROM A LATE WEEK WINTER STORM IMPACTING
THE U.S. EAST COAST.

IN SUPPORT OF MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF A LATE WEEK WINTER
STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE U.S. EAST COAST, SPECIAL SOUNDINGS
ARE REQUESTED BEGINNING TODAY AT 1800Z.  ALL REGIONAL DIRECTORS
HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE SCHEDULE BELOW.  IF
THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS, CONTACT YOUR REGION OR THE SDM.

*** SPECIAL SOUNDING REQUESTS ***

CENTRAL REGION: ENTIRE REGION FROM 20/1800Z TO 22/0600Z

SOUTHERN REGION: EXCLUDING TX AND FL...FROM TX EASTWARD BEGINNING
FROM 21/1800Z TO 22/1800Z.

EASTERN REGION:  WFOs RNK, GSO, MHX, IAD, PIT, OKX, ALB, CHH
BEGINNING FROM 21/1800Z TO 23/0600Z.

READY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

the NWS sends these in to get a reading etc like they do with tropical storms?

i heard about this on TWC sending balloons

Yea apparently they are launching extra balloons tonight in the entire middle of the country. Maybe we will have a better idea of this storm by the 00z runs since they will have more data.

EDIT: The 18z runs had some extra data too, maybe that's why they went north a bit?
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Post by Guest Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:27 pm

@kaos00723 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@snow247 wrote:
@jake732 wrote: ‏@NEweatherHQ  
Hudson Valley into Western Connecticut is a tough one. I'd go with 6-12 inches right now. Potential for a lot more.

Brave call by whoever that is.

Obviously someone that knows nothing about forecasting. But how I wish they were somehow right.

No offense to anyone here but most of you aren't good at actual forecasting either. Reading models and maps maybe, but forecasting, not really.

You need to take common sense and decades of weather knowledge into consideration when forecasting weather, not just what guidance tells you.

Common sense tells us this:


  • Storms usually exit on the same latitude that they entered.
  • Coastal storms don't normally head dead East Southeast all of a sudden out of nowhere and for no reason. Most Mets agree that this simply doesn't make sense.
  • There is still a good amount of room for the storm to move North, there isn't nearly enough nearby blocking it from doing so.
  • The ocean waters are very, very warm still which will drop the pressure of this storm much more than what the models suggest and most likely bomb it out.


Of course none of this could happen and the Euro has been correct all along. That's why Meteorologists like Bernie Sanders make the big bucks and stick to their original forecast from the start without freaking out about every little shift in the models. Accuweather has been consistent on this storm from the start and will make their final determinations by tomorrow evening which is what everyone else should be doing for a storm like this. You really have no idea what's going to happen until it happens like so many times before. It's fun to see what the models are doing and trying to determine what this thing is going to do but in the end common sense tells us that the models are probably having some minor difficulties with the track of this storm once it hits the warm Atlantic waters and anything can happen come Saturday morning. Either way it's best to prepare for snow and/or power outages regardless of what's going to happen. cat

I've been following the weather closely for 35 years, and really into the science behind it for the last 20 years. With the internet I can go anywhere to learn about the weather and get a good forecast, but nowhere that I've been or no one I've followed is as accurate as Frank is! (some of the other forecasters are pretty darn good too.) For you to choose to come on here and criticize the forecasting ability of the Mets on here with your first ever post is pretty ballsy and rude. Using Bernie Rayno's (who many of us like) reasoning word for word completely destroys your credibility!

Enjoy the non-storm No No

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Post by frank 638 Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:30 pm

1010 wind still has 6 to 12 for NYC Parts of Long Island and less north and west and east

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Post by meeka312 Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:37 pm

Just have a question cause I'm no expert and this is getting hard to follow with everyone's emotions tied to what snow they will personally recieve. I live in CNJ right along the coast, maybe 6 miles inland. Has our forcast stayed relatively the same that I should expect around 9-15 inches of snow?


Last edited by meeka312 on Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:38 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:37 pm

@snow247 wrote:RPM!!!!!!!!!!!! WOW

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 29 IMG_20160121_190522.jpg.a802b9cb6f0a33b1460b9efae89a36ea

Looks like a copy paste of the low res NAM.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:39 pm

@snow247 wrote:RPM!!!!!!!!!!!! WOW

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 29 IMG_20160121_190522.jpg.a802b9cb6f0a33b1460b9efae89a36ea
thst matches the 30 inch hv nam. Hmmm
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:40 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:
@snow247 wrote:RPM!!!!!!!!!!!! WOW

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 29 IMG_20160121_190522.jpg.a802b9cb6f0a33b1460b9efae89a36ea

Looks like a copy paste of the low res NAM.
oy nj same time !
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:42 pm

My fellow weather nut jobs...

Check out this great analysis I just found via Weather Optics..

http://www.weatheroptics.net/scott-pecoriello
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:52 pm

@meeka312 wrote:Just have a question cause I'm no expert and this is getting hard to follow with everyone's emotions tied to what snow they will personally recieve. I live in CNJ right along the coast, maybe 6 miles inland. Has our forcast stayed relatively the same that I should expect around 9-15 inches of snow?
Hi meeka yes pretty much the same and for me as well but for me my totals are a tad lower bc of some mixing I guess but all along we have been in a good spot
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:52 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:It looks like at H5 on the CMC the trough is neutral by hr 30 and remains so by hr 42 or so. At that time the Trough actually tilts back pos intead of tilting neg. due to the S/w coming over top of the western ridge forcing it to roll over the ULL.    The LP is just set to come up the coast perfectly before it actaully elongates and jumps east.  Precip shield is immedietaly strung out. This is all because trough goes from neutral to pos instead of remaining neutral or going neg.  Basically the flow becomes progressive and the LP weakens and elongates

01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 29 <img src=" />
01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 29 Gem_z500_vort_us_8
01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 29 Gem_z500_vort_us_9


Found it lol Nice!! Something also to take notice of is your jet positions relative to the lows. The jets are cruising off to the east, and actually, this system is being driven almost entirely by the northern branch until it gets well offshore, and the northern branch is quick to move out to the east so the surface has to follow.

Yeah I think there are some small holes in my theory, ie: LP isn't exactly weakening, but the main point about the ridge and trough axis is fairly sound. I actually am still a believer that this actually comes north still even if the 00z are not perfect as there really is still so much subtle run to run inconsistency within most models. Yes they are close in the basic evolution at H5, but the very subtle differences in some of the H5 components, and I mean subtle, will mean the difference between the 6" line in say Hartford Ct through the bulk of the HV vs cutting through central LI and NYC. I am very reluctant to change my map just yet without the 00z under my belt; however. My updated second call will be out in the morning.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 29 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:59 pm

New thread.

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CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
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01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call - Page 29 Empty Re: 01/23/16 Storm Update #4 - A Tough 1st Call

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