Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

by **snow247** Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:33 am

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/anim8wv.html

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:33 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Are we still looking at 2-4 event for the coast Tommorow. And when should it start?

Yes, 6-7am

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:34 am

NAVGEM

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:38 am

by **amugs** Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:41 am

GOOD MORNING LADS,

WHO READY FOR A SUPER BOWL; OF PLAYS TODAY ON THIS BOARD FROM EVERY FRICKI MODEL KNOWN TO MAN AND MORE.

MY GOD WHAT A NOWCAST NOW WITH THIS 1ST STORM - BRUSHES US OR IF THIS BIAG CAN JOG 75-100 MILES NW THEN AS THE GREAT KEITH NELSON WOULD SAY WHOOAAAAA NELLLLIE!

by **amugs** Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:43 am

IF YOU LOOK AT THE WV LOOP FRANK HOW IN GODS NAME DOES IT MISS US - SO FRICKIN CLOSE TO ABSOLUTE CRUSHING US.

by **sroc4** Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:44 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Sroc just realized your time stamp for mesoanalysis is 15z. Your comparing against 12z models. That's why they're different

Im not sure I completely understand. In theory the model image should indicate a time frame later than the current observation right? ie: valid for the 18z timeframe, vs the 15z current observation. So the trough is neg already whereas the GFS wants to keep it positive in its depiction for 18z. This is a good thing right? Or am I interpreting this wrong?

The mesoanalysis shows it ran at 15z so you can only compare that against 15z model runs. There's a 3 hour difference between the time stamps you posted.

I corrected it in the other forum

by **Quietace** Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:44 am

amugs wrote:GOOD MORNING LADS,

WHO READY FOR A SUPER BOWL; OF PLAYS TODAY ON THIS BOARD FROM EVERY FRICKI MODEL KNOWN TO MAN AND MORE.

MY GOD WHAT A NOWCAST NOW WITH THIS 1ST STORM - BRUSHES US OR IF THIS BIAG CAN JOG 75-100 MILES NW THEN AS THE GREAT KEITH NELSON WOULD SAY WHOOAAAAA NELLLLIE!

Ive been watching the mesoscale Anyl since 5am this morning. Going to very close.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:47 am

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Sroc just realized your time stamp for mesoanalysis is 15z. Your comparing against 12z models. That's why they're different

Im not sure I completely understand. In theory the model image should indicate a time frame later than the current observation right? ie: valid for the 18z timeframe, vs the 15z current observation. So the trough is neg already whereas the GFS wants to keep it positive in its depiction for 18z. This is a good thing right? Or am I interpreting this wrong?

The mesoanalysis shows it ran at 15z so you can only compare that against 15z model runs. There's a 3 hour difference between the time stamps you posted.

I corrected it in the other forum

I saw

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:47 am

Quietace wrote:
amugs wrote:GOOD MORNING LADS,

WHO READY FOR A SUPER BOWL; OF PLAYS TODAY ON THIS BOARD FROM EVERY FRICKI MODEL KNOWN TO MAN AND MORE.

MY GOD WHAT A NOWCAST NOW WITH THIS 1ST STORM - BRUSHES US OR IF THIS BIAG CAN JOG 75-100 MILES NW THEN AS THE GREAT KEITH NELSON WOULD SAY WHOOAAAAA NELLLLIE!
Ive been watching the mesoscale Anyl since 5am this morning. Going to very close.

I'm drinking wine.

It's still morning.

This hobby sucks.

by **amugs** Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:48 am

SCOTT WE ARE LOOKING AT AN INITIALIZATION ERROR BY THE MODELS OF WHERE THE SLP IS AT AND IT IS MORE W THAN MODELLED. I THINK THEIR WILL BE A FEW GOOD SURPRISES COME TOMORROW AT THIS TIME. DEFORM BANDS NEED TO SWING ANOTHER 50 MILES INLAND I MA GUESSING TO GET THE GOOD STUFF FROM THIS, RIGHT THERE I CAN TASTE IT!!

by **sroc4** Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:49 am

This just posted on Twitter by Bernie R

Classic windshield wiper with models.u will continue to see guidance shift things back to the west over next 24 hours into New England

by **amugs** Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:49 am

I JUST GOT UP FROM DRINKING WINE AND BEER LAST NIGHT WATCHING MY BUDDIES BAND PLAY AT OF ALL PLACES - THE RECOVERY ROOM!!

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:49 am

I would shift everything south and east by 30 miles but keeps 3-6 accumulations for Jersey Shore and LI. 2-4 for NYC Metro. 1-3 west of NYC

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 7 Feb_8th_snow_map

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 7 Feb_8th_snow_map

by **Quietace** Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:50 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
Quietace wrote:
amugs wrote:GOOD MORNING LADS,

WHO READY FOR A SUPER BOWL; OF PLAYS TODAY ON THIS BOARD FROM EVERY FRICKI MODEL KNOWN TO MAN AND MORE.

MY GOD WHAT A NOWCAST NOW WITH THIS 1ST STORM - BRUSHES US OR IF THIS BIAG CAN JOG 75-100 MILES NW THEN AS THE GREAT KEITH NELSON WOULD SAY WHOOAAAAA NELLLLIE!
Ive been watching the mesoscale Anyl since 5am this morning. Going to very close.

I'm drinking wine.

It's still morning.

This hobby sucks.

Wanna help me with some Calc II white flag

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:50 am

Actually I would move the 6-12 into central LI and 4-8 for west LI.

by **snow247** Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:51 am

Anyone see the ggem?

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:51 am

Quietace wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
Quietace wrote:
amugs wrote:GOOD MORNING LADS,

WHO READY FOR A SUPER BOWL; OF PLAYS TODAY ON THIS BOARD FROM EVERY FRICKI MODEL KNOWN TO MAN AND MORE.

MY GOD WHAT A NOWCAST NOW WITH THIS 1ST STORM - BRUSHES US OR IF THIS BIAG CAN JOG 75-100 MILES NW THEN AS THE GREAT KEITH NELSON WOULD SAY WHOOAAAAA NELLLLIE!
Ive been watching the mesoscale Anyl since 5am this morning. Going to very close.

I'm drinking wine.

It's still morning.

This hobby sucks.
Wanna help me with some Calc II

That would require a 2nd bottle of wine.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:51 am

snow247 wrote:Anyone see the ggem?

Looks like GFS. Scraper with more on LI

by **skinsfan1177** Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:54 am

So what is everyone take on amounts with this storm. Frank says 2-4. Is their any temp issues

by **amugs** Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:54 am

sroc4 wrote:This just posted on Twitter by Bernie R

Classic windshield wiper with models.u will continue to see guidance shift things back to the west over next 24 hours into New England

YUP AND GRAZES US, MAYBE MORE - SOB!!! SOMEONE TURN ON THE MEGA VACUUM CLEANER AND SUCK THE SLP OVER 75 MILES!!

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:56 am

Latest RAP matches my thoughts exactly. This is how I would draw it up.

by **docstox12** Sun Feb 07, 2016 11:57 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
Quietace wrote:
amugs wrote:GOOD MORNING LADS,

WHO READY FOR A SUPER BOWL; OF PLAYS TODAY ON THIS BOARD FROM EVERY FRICKI MODEL KNOWN TO MAN AND MORE.

MY GOD WHAT A NOWCAST NOW WITH THIS 1ST STORM - BRUSHES US OR IF THIS BIAG CAN JOG 75-100 MILES NW THEN AS THE GREAT KEITH NELSON WOULD SAY WHOOAAAAA NELLLLIE!
Ive been watching the mesoscale Anyl since 5am this morning. Going to very close.

I'm drinking wine.

It's still morning.

This hobby sucks.

I will incur wrath from the fine ladies on the Board, but I just can't help it.

Trying to figure out these models is like trying to figure out how a woman thinks. (covering my head and ducking to avoid the frying pans being thrown my way!)

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 07, 2016 12:00 pm

Updated snow call posted in the scroll. Refer to RAP model image above. NOTE: IF THIS KEEPS SHIFTING NW SO WILL THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THIS IS A TRUE NOWCAST SITUATION AS MODELS HAVE NOT AGREED ON EXACT TRACK YET

by **weatherwatchermom** Sun Feb 07, 2016 12:03 pm

docstox12 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
Quietace wrote:
amugs wrote:GOOD MORNING LADS,

WHO READY FOR A SUPER BOWL; OF PLAYS TODAY ON THIS BOARD FROM EVERY FRICKI MODEL KNOWN TO MAN AND MORE.

MY GOD WHAT A NOWCAST NOW WITH THIS 1ST STORM - BRUSHES US OR IF THIS BIAG CAN JOG 75-100 MILES NW THEN AS THE GREAT KEITH NELSON WOULD SAY WHOOAAAAA NELLLLIE!
Ive been watching the mesoscale Anyl since 5am this morning. Going to very close.

I'm drinking wine.

It's still morning.

This hobby sucks.

I will incur wrath from the fine ladies on the Board, but I just can't help it.

Trying to figure out these models is like trying to figure out how a woman thinks. (covering my head and ducking to avoid the frying pans being thrown my way!)

your lucky I just put them all away!! but you are right..this is nerve racking I am trying to get ready for tonight and I keep running to my computer or look at my pad on the counter...

by **snow247** Sun Feb 07, 2016 12:04 pm

UKMET for the coastal:

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 7 Image.gif.e8585378a885d908b231a76617678117

UKMET for the IVT:

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 7 Image.gif.a48a02b4d9940850eee31f8a6fc0a94c

UKMET total for both storms:

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 7 Image.gif.5f3c1e8917dca30682cab711d635278f

by **Dunnzoo** Sun Feb 07, 2016 12:05 pm

docstox12 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
Quietace wrote:
amugs wrote:GOOD MORNING LADS,

WHO READY FOR A SUPER BOWL; OF PLAYS TODAY ON THIS BOARD FROM EVERY FRICKI MODEL KNOWN TO MAN AND MORE.

MY GOD WHAT A NOWCAST NOW WITH THIS 1ST STORM - BRUSHES US OR IF THIS BIAG CAN JOG 75-100 MILES NW THEN AS THE GREAT KEITH NELSON WOULD SAY WHOOAAAAA NELLLLIE!
Ive been watching the mesoscale Anyl since 5am this morning. Going to very close.

I'm drinking wine.

It's still morning.

This hobby sucks.

I will incur wrath from the fine ladies on the Board, but I just can't help it.

Trying to figure out these models is like trying to figure out how a woman thinks. (covering my head and ducking to avoid the frying pans being thrown my way!)

No offense taken doc, you guys will never figure us out! cheers

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