Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

[dkodgis]

CP, let's call it El NoNo with a wink and a nod to Amy Winehouse and her song.

[Snow88]

That's what I remember 2011 being a La Niña and lots of snow.

yes but odds heavily favor less snow. we must have had  a -nao during that year. my memory of la nina is cold and dry (1970's). my hope is for a 95-96 repeat. that year oni was -.9 and 75.6" of snow. do not think we get below-1 next winter. we shall see.

In 2010-2011, I had 60 inches of snow by Feb 1 thanks to a strong -NAO and -AO until February.

[dkodgis]

or maybe La Nada En Particular

[dkodgis]

But if a weak La Nina or a neutral El NoNo or La Nada =less snow, what does that mean for the north of I-84 people?  We move from 4 inches to just a dusting?  

[docstox12]

The ENSO regions were in an anomalously warm state. These things usually counteract each other. After the 1997-1998 super El Nino, the following year we saw a super La Nina. At the least I think we'll see a moderate Niña next year

Frank, if what you say is true, and I have no reason to believe it isn't, both of those winters 97/98 and 98/99 were both horrible and among the top ten warmest of all time and among the least snowiest of all time.

1997/98 had a Dec-Feb average temperature of 39.6, which at the time made it the second warmest winter in history, snowfall in NYC was a meager 5.5 among the 5 worst winters ever.

1998/99 which you identify as a super La Nina was almost as bad. The winter average in NYC was 38.7, which at the time made it the fourth warmest winter ever and the snowfall was a paltry 12.7 inches. This three year period from 96/97 to 98/99 had the least amount of snowfall in any 3 year period by far in NYC history.

So if a Super El Nino gives us horrible winters and a Super la Nina gives us horrible winters than we really need to avoid any extremes.

What we need is a Super El Noneia, which is the exact neutral zone of a super El Nino and a super la Nina.

Actually there is no such term but it sounds good to me so I thought I'd throw it in there. You may feel free to use it as you wish. It was inspired by Doc's coining of the phrase Hell Nino to describe this past winter, which certainly was apropos.

Yes, CP those super Nino's and Nina's bust out for us here.Those late 90's years following the massive '95-'96 year, were terrible.

Hate to say this but with the very snowy years recently, two or three bust years in a row could be in store.Those maps Mugsy put on above this post show the evolution of the Super Nina just in time for our winter.However it may not reach full intensity on that projection until after December so that month could be a good one.

Let's hope the Super Nina rockets and peaks before the winter so at that time it will be declining to a moderate-weak status which could really help us.

Hell Nino was exactly what us Hudson Valley folks endured this winter, more "Hell" as you went further north.

[Frank_Wx]

A -NAO is poised to develop by the end of this week into next week. This does not necessarily mean cooler weather is on the way. In fact, it could mean the opposite. Some models have the ridge centered over Greenland, with a mean trough over the west. This keeps the southeast ridge pumping over the east. We're looking at normal to above normal temps through the rest of April. Any days that fall below normal are supplemented from disturbances bringing rain.

[Frank_Wx]

Weeeeee

[Math23x7]

Weeeeee

That's yesterday's 8-14 day outlook.  Today's 8-14 day outlook has a cooler air possibility over northern New England:

[Snow88]

Weeeeee

Doesnt look like that anymore with the back door cold fronts on the GFS and Euro.

[Frank_Wx]

Huge -NAO this weekend into early next week. That's probably why guidance is beginning to trend cooler. The -NAO is preventing a cut-off trough from escaping east. Literally just sits and spins over southeast Canada for an entire week. THAT WOULD BE AWFUL!





We'll see how this plays out. Maybe the blocking is overdone.

[Frank_Wx]

Excuse me while I throw up......

[frank 638]

Wow what is this march weather again it's almost may already

[stdmk04]

Are there any signals indicating possible rain for Mother's Day Weekend (May 7-?

[Math23x7]

Well Well Well.  Check this out.  The Nino 1.2 region's temperature anomaly continues to fall.  Now approaching Super La Nina territory.  Of course, Regions 3, 3.4, and 4 are still at El Nino status, but this is a start:

[amugs]

BYE BYE NINO - in the EPAC







Tradewinds blowing opposite - interesting to see at this time of year



3.4 holding


4 as well



The collapse from east to west

[frank 638]

Finally we say Good bye to hell nino that destroyed our winter now does it mean for our summer this year because I don't want a hot hot summer ??

[algae888]

this from a poster from another board concerning this el-nino to la nina transition....
"Yeah, the only El Nino to La Nina spring transition that looks remotely similar is 1995. That

El Nino ended with a strong cooling in the eastern ENSO regions with stronger trades closer

to the South American coast also. While the PDO was rising during that spring, this year is

much stronger. So this super El Nino continues to rewrite the playbook even as it's fading out.

Like you mentioned, the 97-98 super El Nino held onto the warmer waters east and the

strongest spring trades focused further west back to the WPAC and DL."
95-96 incoming oh baby!

[Frank_Wx]

I have done some research ahead of my Summer Outlook release. I'll admit this is tough. In my Winter outlook I decided against using analogs and it actually worked out well for me. I may do the same for the summer outlook

[weatherwatchermom]

I have done some research ahead of my Summer Outlook release. I'll admit this is tough. In my Winter outlook I decided against using analogs and it actually worked out well for me. I may do the same for the summer outlook

Looking forward to reading your outlook....

[algae888]

I have done some research ahead of my Summer Outlook release. I'll admit this is tough. In my Winter outlook I decided against using analogs and it actually worked out well for me. I may do the same for the summer outlook

yes frank I agree as there aren't two seasons exactly alike. however last winter resembled 82-83 super nino with the one big snow event and warmth although not as warm as this year. many mets had that year as their top analog.

[frank 638]

looks like for Thursday a nor'easter might affect us with heavy rain strong winds and coastal flooding why can't we have this in February or March

[Frank_Wx]

Weather next week looks much better than this week. 70's and possibly 80's. There will be a day or two of rain, or overcast skies, but it should not be as wet. Strong High in the southeast will keep us dry, with more severe weather and flooding across the Mississippi unfortunately.

[Frank_Wx]

Be on the lookout for my summer outlook Friday!

[jmanley32]

Be on the lookout for my summer outlook Friday!

Looking forward to it, will you discuss severe weather potential and tropics?

[skinsfan1177]

Can't wait for the summer outlook frank

[RJB8525]

looks like for Thursday a nor'easter might affect us with heavy rain strong winds and coastal flooding why can't we have this in February or March

looks like that's off the table now down to showers again

[skinsfan1177]

What's in store for the week ahead any sun?

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