Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

[RJB8525]

looks like for Thursday a nor'easter might affect us with heavy rain strong winds and coastal flooding why can't we have this in February or March

looks like that's off the table now down to showers again

[skinsfan1177]

What's in store for the week ahead any sun?

[amugs]

For the love of Pete - this would really suck !!

Next Weekend at night - Sat and Sun - frost and freeze warning for the NNJ,HV area ugghh!

I have used more heat this month - natural gas ccf's than Almost ALL of March so far - bite me!!!
If this happens next week I surpass March - reallyyyyy????

[algae888]

regions 3.4 and 4 on the rise again...


most guidance did not forecast regions 3.4 and 4 to be this warm at this time so question becomes how fast and strong nina gets.
happy mothers day moms!

[algae888]

Hearing several of the newest long-range guidance for the summer is wetter and not as warm as they have been. Is this a result of El Nino not dying as quickly as forecast?

[Frank_Wx]

The upcoming week should be fairly mild - temps at average or slightly above - but the weekend into early next week could be cool/wet again.

[Frank_Wx]

I think the week of the 22nd will be a warm one. Looking forward to it.

[amugs]

Here is the blocking - once again at the wrong FRIGGIN' TIME!!!

[algae888]

how about some may snow  north and west suburbs next week. near record -epo delivering some big cold sunday thru tueday next week about 10*+ below normal.

[Frank_Wx]

I think we're looking at a warm up by the last week of May. Once the blocking breaks down and the cut off pattern evaporates, we'll see more of a southerly flow get into the region. I'm thinking 80s by the end of this month.

[amugs]

Interesting Article on what happened with Nino and gives some insight as to WHY is was such a monster and the snap back effect will be just as strong - SCRIPPS may not be to off its rocker with its strong Nina prediction but only as we say time will tell.
http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/05/current-el-ninos-strength-due-partly-to-an-earlier-fizzle/

[nutleyblizzard]

Interesting Article on what happened with Nino and gives some insight as to WHY is was such a monster and the snap back effect will be just as strong - SCRIPPS may not be to off its rocker with its strong Nina prediction but only as we say time will tell.
http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/05/current-el-ninos-strength-due-partly-to-an-earlier-fizzle/

With the increasing likelihood of a strong La Nina next winter, the SE ridge will be flexing its muscles. We will need atlantic blocking to offset that feature or our upcoming winter prospects will go down the crapper.

[amugs]

Interesting Article on what happened with Nino and gives some insight as to WHY is was such a monster and the snap back effect will be just as strong - SCRIPPS may not be to off its rocker with its strong Nina prediction but only as we say time will tell.
http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/05/current-el-ninos-strength-due-partly-to-an-earlier-fizzle/

With the increasing likelihood of a strong La Nina next winter, the SE ridge will be flexing its muscles. We will need atlantic blocking to offset that feature or our upcoming winter prospects will go down the crapper.

Nuts - it could be back to back winter of meh if this comes to fruition - Nino torched us and Nina scorches us - one two punch!
Yuo are absolutely right that if Nina is strong as predicted then we WILL need the AO and NAO to be N for us to have a winter hate to say but that is a good ways off.

Nino is trying to hold on - lookat 1.2 spike - this i crazy after it crashed - lookslike DOCSTOX penny stocks chart !!
1.2


3.4


4


NINA taking over the PAC by this blue map


PDO still strong POS in the NW PAC

[Frank_Wx]

I've mentioned the last week of May could be warm. Models are still hinting at this being the case, after the 24th. A stretch of 80 degree weather is possible 25th-30th. We'll see.

[amugs]

Give me a friggin' break - WHERE THE H WERE YOU IN JAN/FEB !!

[amugs]

2016** 1.53 1.75 2.40 2.62

PDO is on roids here - highest PDO since teh year I graduated HS baby '87!!

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[Frank_Wx]

The EURO is showing impressive heat by the end of this month. I have been thinking we'll warm up big time come Memorial Day. It looks like we're on our way there. I will not be surprised to see a 90-degree reading somewhere if a ridge like this comes to fruition.

[amugs]

Hopefully this will come true like Frank said then we get this Normal/BN if the blocking comes back

[amugs]

This from another poster/board:

"The signal for tropical/subtropical genesis is stronger than ever off the SE coast over the next 6-10 days coming. The GFS and ECMWF both now indicate the development that I and many others have mentioned was going to be possible with the hemispheric set-up that's coming. "

End of Euro and GFS both have a system as such - going to be interesting.

[Isotherm]

Interesting Article on what happened with Nino and gives some insight as to WHY is was such a monster and the snap back effect will be just as strong - SCRIPPS may not be to off its rocker with its strong Nina prediction but only as we say time will tell.
http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/05/current-el-ninos-strength-due-partly-to-an-earlier-fizzle/

With the increasing likelihood of a strong La Nina next winter, the SE ridge will be flexing its muscles. We will need atlantic blocking to offset that feature or our upcoming winter prospects will go down the crapper.

Strong La Nina's are typically worse than Strong El Nino's for our area, snowfall wise. Those who complained about this winter's warmth and 30-40" of snow will be praying for such a situation if a strong La Nina devoid of blocking occurs. The low AAM state / proclivity for western US troughiness makes it very difficult to achieve significant/major snowfalls in a strong La Nina. With that being said, it's still very early in the game, and ENSO forecasts must be taken w/ a grain of salt.

[Isotherm]

2016**   1.53   1.75   2.40   2.62  

PDO is on roids here - highest PDO since teh year I graduated HS baby '87!!

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

Yes mugs - very interesting combination we have this summer, and likely autumn: positive/strongly positive PDO in concert w/ a developing La Nina. Rare in the database. It's one of the primary factors which caused me to limit the heat a bit for the Northeast this summer (really, one of the only variables controverting the heat signal).

[algae888]

june looks like it will be cool to start...

[algae888]

we would probably be looking at a major snowstorm with these tele connectors if this was winter. not the same impact for summer but june looks to start with a trough in the east and delay any big heat wave for the foreseeable future.

[algae888]

if la-nina gets as strong as modeled we will need the pdo to remain strongly positive with help from the nao to get +snowfall departures for upcoming winter. or have to hope la-nina stays between -.5 and -1 something similar to 95-96 nina.

[amugs]

@Al - your posts above are so true - looks like after this summerish type of weekend/weather the trough builds from the GL east - this will probably mean a cooler, wet type of pattern like we saw earlier this month.

GEPS agree and look how the trough deepens on teh GEFS



This darn transition from Nino to Nina is the culprit and we have to hope the PDO which is off the charts during this transition holds through the Fall - late NOV in my estimation - so we can get a good winter with Nina at a moderate state - if Mrs. Nino decides to go as strong as Nino then in all snow weenie lands there will be carnage!!

3.4 near nuetral



and 4 holding on to weak nino


Look at how we have cooled right along the equator but the PDo areas - just off teh west coast are holding on


BUT look at we are cooling the PAC overall though - lots of blue - only wish this was snow depth!!
This is a classic transition to a Nina state here peeps


Now look at the IO - Madonne - this thing kep cooling - I HATE YOU!! Should have happened in Dec so we did not have an IO block over the top in the PAC this winter!!


From what I have read this will help our winter but strengthening teh Walker Cell - Scott I think yuo talked about if I recall about what happened this winter

This is what could happen

[algae888]

Al I think it as you have stated before we needed the Nino 2 weaken sooner and we would have had a nice back loaded winter this year. Also from another board I'm hearing the Qbo will be positive next year easterly I believe I'm not very familiar with it but it looks to be in our favor plus a weakening Sun ( solar flares). So while the enso is very important for our winter there are other factors to consider

[amugs]

Al calling this 1st week of June after this summer weather comes to an end look at the trough by June7/8
U G L Y u don't need no Aliby u ugly ugly hey hey u ugly!!

BN and unsettled with lots of wetness

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