2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Western Florida monster hit on the GFS. Gets absorbed by the trough and then probably rides the coast after that. Interesting but still ways out.

mugs NJ, the surface pressure is well into the low 900's on both 18z and 00z making this a cat 5 for NO or FL for 00z. Both are show a catestrophic hit for Jamaica and on the 00z ya snow, looks like it would traverse and wreak kavok up the EC with at least TS force conditions,,,but at 384 hrs thats a who knows. Lots of talk bout this one though across weather boards, been a long time since the GFS has shown a monster storm like this even for fantasyland, it like a doomsday storm, i cant even imagine how hude this would look if it did come to fruition. Not counting on anything now, just having fun seeing the models. The Euro jumped off so if it jumps back on that will make things more interesting. I think we can look and say theres at least a somewhat decent chance there is a TS or minimal hurricane around the leewards in about 3-5 days. We track!

not ure what ensembles these are but they put fl and even our area in a much higher liklihood.  gfs ensembles have been showing a much more eastern track too. intensity increases up ec....

Jman, that's the 18z GEFS ( GFS ) ensembles

The 0z ensemble mean has 2 camps. One in the gulf and one on the east coast.

Euro back on board with development. Nhc bumped 5 day to 30%.

I believe this is the marked area of development on the NHC page correct?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Yeppers. 6z cat 5 into around Tampa then dissipates all the way north inland. Similar to hermine but not offshore. Alot ppl believe gfs is overdoing intensity but they also say there's go b very little if anything to hinder this wave. All models have a strong cane around jamaica in 5 or so days that's pretty amazing this far out.

I would like that pattern of a hurricane (not so strong obviously) flung into the gulf states merging with a front and turning into a extratropical low inland and to our west and northwest giving us days of tropical rainfall, we could use some real rain.

They werent kidding when they said the flow was fast out there, holy moly. Enhanced sat, off coast of western Africa:

https://i.imgur.com/vl3DNgE.jpg

Wow Ryan maue posted GEFS ensembles 100% agreement out to 240.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:They werent kidding when they said the flow was fast out there, holy moly. Enhanced sat, off coast of western Africa:

https://i.imgur.com/vl3DNgE.jpg

yep hence why won't b weeks of track this over the atlantic. Things get past 60w as early as wed.

jmanley32 wrote:mugs NJ, the surface pressure is well into the low 900's on both 18z and 00z making this a cat 5 for NO or FL for 00z.  Both are show a catestrophic hit for Jamaica and on the 00z ya snow, looks like it would traverse and wreak kavok up the EC with at least TS force conditions,,,but at 384 hrs thats a who knows.  Lots of talk bout this one though across weather boards, been a long time since the GFS has shown a monster storm like this even for fantasyland, it like a doomsday storm, i cant even imagine how hude this would look if it did come to fruition.  Not counting on anything now, just having fun seeing the models.  The Euro jumped off so if it jumps back on that will make things more interesting.  I think we can look and say theres at least a somewhat decent chance there is a TS or minimal hurricane around the leewards in about 3-5 days.  We track!

That ARmy Corps Project to reinforce the levees and that billions of dollar seas gate they built will be put to teh test if this were to come to fruition. I know the second in command civil engineer for the corps who worked that project - massive politics from their original plan and lessen the effects the seas wall and project in terms of protections - can withstand a CAT 3 from what he said. They had the chance but the govt bureaucracy of course screw this up. Euro will bring it back.

Look at the Cold Air/Trough in teh Mid Section and that 540 blue line - like that look with SE CAN blue
I can tell you this the LES could be off the charts this late fall and winter - the GL are boiling

6z GEFS are mostly into Florida and rides up the coast



http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_6z/ensloopmref.html

CMC

http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/cmc/current/12z/CMC_MSLPThickQPF_na_f240.png?1364096147

GFS slams the storm into Mexico. It's 300+ hours out.

Snow imo this may b a ec threat the ensembles are often right and look where cmc is. Btw nhc jumped to 60% in 5 day. This could and I say could b a really serioysly scary situation for somewhere on the us. Dout it b.nexico. thinking no to ec just a wild guess. If intensity is right dear god. And euro came back full force.

jmanley32 wrote:Snow imo this may b a ec threat the ensembles are often right and look where cmc is. Btw nhc jumped to 60% in 5 day. This could and I say could b a really serioysly scary situation for somewhere on the us. Dout it b.nexico. thinking no to ec just a wild guess. If intensity is right dear god. And euro came back full force.

Full throttle EC devastation on GEFS

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_18z/f324.html

EURO bringing er back - said all along that Matthew would be the most powerful Hcane and one that would affect us up here - why - my son - why - cause when he was little we woudl say his room looked like a hcane hit it - watch it happen!

Mugs, we are all dead if this happens (likely actually a much lower surface pressure so maybe cat 3 ish).....GFS control, for some reason the ensembles keep it more east and crush FL and east coast, muti billion dollar disaster possible, this is go be a cat 5 in caribbean by next weekend watch. The regular GFS run has been all over the place and mostly west not agreeing with the ensembles. Yes in fantasy land but this time we have near all unanimous model support for genesis and placement through 240, it diverges from there but is consolodating a bit more each day, I know no one will pay this much mind thill next week but its concerning for the US and the islands, this could be one of the biggest hurricanes, its size on images is astounding.

amugs wrote:EURO bringing er back - said all along that Matthew would be the most powerful Hcane and one that would affect us up here - why - my son - why - cause when he was little we woudl say his room looked like a hcane hit it - watch it happen!        

Euro brought it back last night, this thing gets to low 900s maybe into 800s mb surface pressure in caribbean and even as it heads towards the US. Everywhere I am reading is saying the conditions are going to be primo.

For instance this image, good god....



mugs i am guessing your childs name is matthew? I am fearing this WILL be a major disaster somewhere. And are we in the threat, yes I imo think we could be. 70% chance development from 20% this morning, the NHC also starting to get recon ready, they not playing.

post on twitter by RM...

"Upper-level wind shear forecast to be light + strong anti-cyclone above potential tropical system in Caribbean could become very intense"

wow watch out ec...

Ridge over troubled waters

sroc4 wrote:Ridge over troubled waters

Heh, when will we get some insight from you sroc, and the others that are so great at analyzing all this, i imagine you will wait till its past 60W?

sroc4 wrote:Ridge over troubled waters

Read JB's post on this and Scott look at the deep trough in Plains and Strong HP 1032-1034 being modelled over SE CAN slipping ENE - IF thi sste where to occur HOLY HANNAHS my son Matthew will devastate teh EC - just like his bedroom!!!

Euro hinting at this



Oh and my friend made this statement on our way to school friday as we carpooled " Sandy was a once in a 100 year storm, we ain't ever going to see that again" KOD!!!!