2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

sroc4 wrote:Ridge over troubled waters

Heh, when will we get some insight from you sroc, and the others that are so great at analyzing all this, i imagine you will wait till its past 60W?

sroc4 wrote:Ridge over troubled waters

Read JB's post on this and Scott look at the deep trough in Plains and Strong HP 1032-1034 being modelled over SE CAN slipping ENE - IF thi sste where to occur HOLY HANNAHS my son Matthew will devastate teh EC - just like his bedroom!!!

Euro hinting at this



Oh and my friend made this statement on our way to school friday as we carpooled " Sandy was a once in a 100 year storm, we ain't ever going to see that again" KOD!!!!

MJO forecast is favorable of Caribbean Western Atlantic Development as well - EPAC is dying off allowing this region with GOM to ignite.

JB map MOMMA MIA!!

mugs, us that care about the hurricane season should have a get together if this threatens the area, next weekend would be well before any landfall risk up here unless this thing doesnt slow down. Its a scary thought what this could do if it is as intense as models are showing and goes right up coast and slams us, even  a indirect hit from a cat 2+ would be really bad.

so let me see if i get this right, the ridges progged to be around that time would bring to be matthew up the coast but keep him from going OTS? Still trying to to totally understand the ridging setup.

Holy crap 898mb!!

We have 97L now, so now we will get more track and intensity info. I think this will be a depression soon.

Well damn you don't rarely see a ramp up with most of the models like this!

0z GFS turns into a strong noreaster and rides up the coast, heavy wet snow breaks out in interior New England, heavy cold rain elsewhere.

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Ridge over troubled waters

Heh, when will we get some insight from you sroc, and the others that are so great at analyzing all this, i imagine you will wait till its past 60W?

Ok Jman since Mugsys little Mathew looks to potentially pack a mean punch to someone.............



Lets discuss him briefly.   First off remember long term upper level patterns WILL change as we get into the md and short range.  What we see now at 500mb over NA beyond 7days steering the sytem, although giving us a general idea of the overall pattern, the details of which WILL change.  As we know small changes at 500mb can have big impacts on the surface outcomes.  For this reason I'm not going to get into too much details on where I think it will go yet.  What I will say is this...If the trough ridge complex that Mugsy showed above and Mathew takes a path like the GFS and its ens are showing an EC landfall is def possible........................



  Over the next 3-5days as 97L, that will be Mathew, will be passing the "magical" 60W mark, and into the E Caribbean.  Here is where I start to see some subtle differences between euro and GFS camps.  

Both the GFS ens and operational have a more northerly track vs the Euro Ens and operational have a more southerly track leading to the possibility of interactions with land on the southern periphery of the system as it enters and begins the westward journey through the Caribbean.  A more southerly track into the E Caribbean MAY slow its progression, and MAY delay its organization a little depending on just how close to land the LP center tracks.  

Another key part of our equation in the next 3-5-7days is going to be wind shear.  So far this year with EVERY system the wind shear and its affects on development have been under modeled in the short and md range.  Most recent example of this is Karl.  He was supposed to develop into a hurricane and actualy the LR had it a major hurricane, but the NHC each day kept delaying its development.  Why?? because conditions, although modeling kept saying were going to improve, never did.    
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/graphics/al12/loop_5NLW.shtml

The infamous Hermine was also a great example of this.  We kept waiting and waiting and waiting for the wind shear to diminish for days and days.  Forecasts kept calling for improving conditions.  Hermine; however, is also a great example to use for Mathew because although the conditions took forever to become more favorable we saw just how fast a furious she organized in the NE GOM within less than a 12-24hr period once conditions did improve.  My point here is that once Mathew is into the open waters of the Caribbean, esp the NW part where the Ocean Heat Content(OHC) is at the highest, if conditions are right expect rapid and explosive intensification to occur.  As of now I would say this is likely going to be the case but may still be at least 5-7days away.  

Ive looked at the shear forecasts on both the GFS and the Euro and would say that moderate shear, which is currently present on the N and NW side of the system, looks to follow 97L/Mathew for at least the next 3-5days so I'm not expecting an officially named system, even though I am calling it Mathew already, until at least the 5-7day(79.8% confident in this call at this time).  Like Hermine, however, expect it to be like a Lamborghini, 0-60 in under 3seconds, once intensification does in fact get going.  Ill have another update on this probably on Tuesday.  

A little closer to home and in the near term for our sensible weather I think we need to keep a close eye on the possibility of some tropical like LP or at least moisture enhancement to an ULL and cold front for later in the week.
Take a look at the current WV imagery.  



Notice two features.  First one is an ULL spinning centered over Southern Mississippi with convection from it just off the SE Fla coast.  Second is an ULL spinning in the N plains.  The ULL over the N plains is forecasted to move east; then push south and may draw the energy and moisture in the SE up along the coast and may spawn a LP center to dvelop.  This is something that might affect us or may stay to our south affecting the Delmarva area, but Im expecting someone to get a high rain total by the end of the week because of this feature.  Here are the Euro, which is more pronounced with the interaction, and GFS.    




We will have to see where the track of the ULL goes as well.  This too may lead to a LP off our coast somewhere depending on the ULL track leading to additional rainfall.  We could have several days of wet weather beginning later this week and into next weekend.

WE TRACK!!!!!!!

Anybody see the 6z GFS, lol.

This ones going in the GFS fantasy storm catalogs... 960s mb low deepening inland.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016092506&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Anybody see the 6z GFS, lol.

It Miller B's/phases with a northern branch s/w. This is a Sandy like soln only over land. This type of interaction is plausible, but timing, intensity, positioning of the tropical system, the approaching trough, and the blocking ridge to the NE dictates if this is in fact a plausible soln. Euro shows similar 500mb set up, but doesn't go out far enough to see it through, see Mugsy's image above. Again LR 500mb solns are mere fantasy so we will have to see how it evolves.

WOW AT THESE RUNS!!

Jman remember I said that the fartherer south it tracks the best shot of it forming it a hcane and missing the OTS westerlies this time of year - GIDDEEE UP !
Timing of course is crucial and teh 500mb maps will give us some insight as to what will happen with Matthew? Will he tear apart his room in a fit of anger (EC destruction), will he close teh door and walk away (OTS) of will he go inside and see what he can salvage (inland runner)?

Only he knows as does Big Momma - his bed is actually worse than his room - when he wakes up in the morning the fitted sheets is wrapped around him how I have no idea but all I can do is laugh!!

EURO ENS on board


GFS is definitely one scary track but the Heta Potnetial in the CArribena as Sroc said above will allow this bad boy to rev up fast and there is a favorable MJO and light hsear forecasted for this region of grwoth

The en dof the 6Z run as Tom alluded too will bring snow to teh interior sections of the NE and freeze into the mid atlantic as currently depicted - It shows two polar HP systems dropping in - ala Sandys aftermath.

GEFS still shows a few members hitting the east coast hard.

06z gfs was a over land hurricane had us under 90kt i50mb winds. I guess that's prolly ts sustained not hurricane. Lots to watch. Lots will change and ya it is really low latitude. I knew that already. It will get past 60w ots I think is unlikely.

I have to say even though I lurk other boards u guys are the most sensible. People on a board I will remain nameless are say oh go b a recurVe east of bermuda. Really? Really like it's a done deal. I dont even see that happening at all.

12z is looking concerning for ec and people are referencing 1954 hazel. Who in this area went through hazel? What was it like in the nyc area bad? I read battery recorded highest ever gust to 113mph. Didn't bastardi say 1954 was a analog year...

Damn so far through 252 it's nearly identical to hazel. But yes just one run.

GFS and GGEM say no gulf storm but wow GFS was very close to a major hurricane a long the east coast

Wow a sub 950s mb cane huge barely misses us on this run. I'm reading it's all go depend on that u'll one of you was talking about to have to turn north and nw.

Cape cod gets hit. The wind field is huge.

Snow88 wrote:GFS and GGEM say no gulf storm but wow GFS was very close to a major hurricane a long the east coast

I'm thinking in about 5 days we will b about 5 days away from a impact if we were to get one. This should develop midweek if not sooner. I don't see it being a gom storm.

sandy's big brother is named"mathew"staying south of the high to the north and it gets stronger ec have 2 get prepare 4 this major onslaught named"mathew"....

GEFS still like a storm a long the coast

Too early to get really concerned as its still about 10 to 12 days out per 12z gfs but yeah this is def a posdibly scary and devastating storm for at least the carribean and imo the ec. The cmc came back west in line with gfs at hr 240.

Snow88 wrote:GEFS still like  a storm a long the coast

how many days is that now? It's been pretty consistant. I hate being 12 days away from any kind of storm hurricane or winter. Time just drags lol