Re: June 2013 Casual Observation/Discussion Thread

[Dunnzoo]

Wasn't the long range forecast for a cooler and wetter summer? Sure seems like it will be.....

[Quietace]

I know its a little early, but the Thursday/ Friday storm has a chance to be a "Nor-Easter." With the track it is taking, it could pose a hazard with storm surge. Most models are showing a strengthening LP that is sub 1000mb. Most models are increasing the total QPF and max wind speeds as the days go on. It will have a very good set up for bringing in very strong convection bands into the area, so im not surprised with what models are spitting out. Here is the GGEM.

[Frank_Wx]

If we get another 3-6 inch storm Thursday, we are in trouble.

[Math23x7]

If we get another 3-6 inch storm Thursday, we are in trouble.

Tell me about it! As of 9 PM, NYC has 7.61" this month, making it the 8th wettest June on record at the moment.

[Dunnzoo]

Man, that is sick....can't imagine that much water, we were at minor flooding with 2.5" last week......

[Frank_Wx]

Man, that is sick....can't imagine that much water, we were at minor flooding with 2.5" last week......

Yea make preparations now..this nor'easter threat looks real

[Dunnzoo]

I already warned my friend who is the OEM coordinator for our town...he was asking about tonight and I told him he needs to be more concerned with Thursday.....

[amugs]

This is a scary scenario for everyone - inland and coastal sections! Chat room may have to be activated for this one guys (Frank)!

[Quietace]

More heavy rain on the way for later....

[Math23x7]

As of 4 PM, CPK has 7.09" of rain for June, currently making it the 10th wettest June on record. Here are the top 9 as they stand right now, along with the amount of rain from June 1st to 10th alone during those Junes

Wettest Amount Through June 10th
2003 10.27" 5.25"
2009 10.06" 3.89"
1903 9.78" 0.59"
1972 9.30" 0.93"
1989 8.79" 5.06"
2006 8.55" 6.15"
1887 7.76" N/A
1975 7.58" 4.02"
1938 7.13" 1.77"

I could not get precipitation data for specific dates for June 1887 because I could not find them, but with more rain on the way, this is to put the first ten days of June in perspective. Here is the link:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html?_page=1&state=NY&stationID=94728&_target2=Next+%3E

Update: As of the 11:51 PM updated precipitation totals, Central Park now has 7.83" of rain making it the 7th wettest June on record and surpassing June 1887 which has the N/A in the table I listed above. So it was officially the wettest June 1st-10th on record. And now that it's June 11th, it is currently POURING where I live, and the 2003 June rain total may very well be in reach by the end of the work week with the potential nor'easter coming. Crazy

[Frank_Wx]

This is a scary scenario for everyone - inland and coastal sections! Chat room may have to be activated for this one guys (Frank)!

If things still look interesting after 12z suites tomorrow, we will have a brief chat session tomorrow night during 00z suites and a longer one on Wednesday (if necessary).

Look for my announcement tomorrow after 12z suites

[Quietace]

The GFS and NAM went North on the 00z's. The GGEM held its ground to our south. Its really important were the center of circulation tracks. A track right over the area would push the heaviest precipitation north, while a track like the GGEM would move the heaviest precipitation right over the area. We do know that, were the heaviest precipitation axis is, there will be extreme convection producing heavy rainfall, most models are showing 2-3+ still, after last night.

[Frank_Wx]

The GFS and NAM went North on the 00z's. The GGEM held its ground to our south. Its really important were the center of circulation tracks. A track right over the area would push the heaviest precipitation north, while a track like the GGEM would move the heaviest precipitation right over the area. We do know that, were the heaviest precipitation axis is, there will be extreme convection producing heavy rainfall, most models are showing 2-3+ still, after last night.

6z GFS is just wow.

[amugs]

The GFS and NAM went North on the 00z's. The GGEM held its ground to our south. Its really important were the center of circulation tracks. A track right over the area would push the heaviest precipitation north, while a track like the GGEM would move the heaviest precipitation right over the area. We do know that, were the heaviest precipitation axis is, there will be extreme convection producing heavy rainfall, most models are showing 2-3+ still, after last night.

6z GFS is just wow.

Nor"easter WOW or bad thundersdtorms/rain wow?

[Frank_Wx]

I started a new thread to talk about Thursday.

[Frank_Wx]

*REMINDER*

Chat room tonight from 10-11pm. Spread the word!

[Snow88]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p60&cycle=00&image=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_063_precip_p60.gif

[Quietace]

ahhhh......the GFS for Monday.......here we go again

[Dunnzoo]

haha Ryan....can't trust anything anymore! Let's skip the models and nowcast......

[Quietace]

haha Ryan....can't trust anything anymore! Let's skip the models and nowcast......

I mean....we dont even know the day before so whats the use lol
BTW, the GGEM agrees

[amugs]

Ace - looks like a nasty storm until the day of and we get showers and basically squat - WTF??

[Quietace]

Ace - looks like a nasty storm until the day of and we get showers and basically squat - WTF??

Well, the models had a very difficult time recognizing all the elements of the storm.The convection associated with the MCS pushing out of the west threw the models off with the placement of the low, and the associated convection with it. The models also had to handle the positing of the warm front, hence the severe weather threat, and a always difficult to model LP transfer. All of these components with the phasing and interaction of upper level systems made it a even more difficult forecast for models in terms of QPF, and forecast of the strength and location o f the heaviest convection. All in all the models failed at finding the correct solution and providing a basis  and guidance for us to forecast off. With so much discrepancy, we had to infer a large amount that what the guidance was suggesting. We, or at least I, thought some of the guidance was incorrect, due to this or that reason. I thought there was no way the original LP would track that far north, yet it did. I saw your post in the other thread about the heat you took, i think many of people who complain dont realize how difficult the job is to forecast and what goes into it. Many people think they can do it......but they dont even know lol ( a great example is the kids in my school...yesterday they were like, Ryan whats going down tomorrow, and i said im ot sure yet, and they said why......then i went off on a technical discussion they didn't understand....then again most of my friends are complete morons with too many concussions from sports (what can i expect? im in the sports group at school but I should complain, I have had the same group of friends since I can remember ) lol, ) ...Taking criticism is part of the job, and something we have to take alot of. when we blow 3 or 4 calls a year...Anyway  i digress..i need to study for finals

[Snow88]

Heavy rain right now. The Belt Parkway is a big mess right now. A lot of parts are flooded. I had a tough time driving on the Belt this evening.

[Snow88]

58 degrees right now  on June 13. Insane.

[amugs]

Ace - looks like a nasty storm until the day of and we get showers and basically squat - WTF??

Well, the models had a very difficult time recognizing all the elements of the storm.The convection associated with the MCS pushing out of the west threw the models off with the placement of the low, and the associated convection with it. The models also had to handle the positing of the warm front, hence the severe weather threat, and a always difficult to model LP transfer. All of these components with the phasing and interaction of upper level systems made it a even more difficult forecast for models in terms of QPF, and forecast of the strength and location o f the heaviest convection. All in all the models failed at finding the correct solution and providing a basis  and guidance for us to forecast off. With so much discrepancy, we had to infer a large amount that what the guidance was suggesting. We, or at least I, thought some of the guidance was incorrect, due to this or that reason. I thought there was no way the original LP would track that far north, yet it did. I saw your post in the other thread about the heat you took, i think many of people who complain dont realize how difficult the job is to forecast and what goes into it. Many people think they can do it......but they dont even know lol ( a great example is the kids in my school...yesterday they were like, Ryan whats going down tomorrow, and i said im ot sure yet, and they said why......then i went off on a technical discussion they didn't understand....then again most of my friends are complete morons with too many concussions from sports (what can i expect? im in the sports group at school) lol, ) ...Taking criticism is part of the job, and something we have to take alot of. when we blow 3 or 4 calls a year...Anyway  i digress..i need to study for finals

Ace,  Thanks for the detailed and awesome explanation. I do not have the knowledge as you do and some others on the board technically speaking but I do thoroughly enjoy reading and learning from all of you as  passionate amateur weather guy.  I tell my group that it is a forecast never etched in stone.  Like you said onto the next one -water under a bridge! Thanks Kid

[Math23x7]

Ace - looks like a nasty storm until the day of and we get showers and basically squat - WTF??

Well, the models had a very difficult time recognizing all the elements of the storm.The convection associated with the MCS pushing out of the west threw the models off with the placement of the low, and the associated convection with it. The models also had to handle the positing of the warm front, hence the severe weather threat, and a always difficult to model LP transfer. All of these components with the phasing and interaction of upper level systems made it a even more difficult forecast for models in terms of QPF, and forecast of the strength and location o f the heaviest convection. All in all the models failed at finding the correct solution and providing a basis  and guidance for us to forecast off. With so much discrepancy, we had to infer a large amount that what the guidance was suggesting. We, or at least I, thought some of the guidance was incorrect, due to this or that reason. I thought there was no way the original LP would track that far north, yet it did. I saw your post in the other thread about the heat you took, i think many of people who complain dont realize how difficult the job is to forecast and what goes into it. Many people think they can do it......but they dont even know lol ( a great example is the kids in my school...yesterday they were like, Ryan whats going down tomorrow, and i said im ot sure yet, and they said why......then i went off on a technical discussion they didn't understand....then again most of my friends are complete morons with too many concussions from sports (what can i expect? im in the sports group at school but I should complain, I have had the same group of friends since I can remember ) lol, ) ...Taking criticism is part of the job, and something we have to take alot of. when we blow 3 or 4 calls a year...Anyway  i digress..i need to study for finals

Ryan, I know how you feel about this particular situation.  From 2001-06 (I was 11-16 years old then, and will be 23 in a couple of weeks), I was very passionate about weather.  I would get excited waiting for Sam Champion (then with Eyewitness News) to give the weather forecast and I became obsessed with not only past events but also with weather forecasting and my dream job at the time was to become a meteorologist.  At the age of 16, however, when I was in my junior year of high school, I got a lot of discouragement from the people at my school telling me that meteorologists are clueless with the information and are rarely correct. In fact, someone even told me a story of a met that came close to losing his job (might have been Bolaris, not sure) because he was wrong on his forecasts.  Being the reactive person that I was then, I decided to stop following the weather closely.  It was in early-2009 that I became interested in weather again as I have come across weather forums and blogs (including the Channel 7 board), that have enhanced my weather knowledge further than it had before.  However, I had already decided on a different career path, and I am simply a hobbyist today.  Looking back, I certainly would have acted differently seven years ago.  

Now, it appears than many of the "busts" we have experienced have ended up giving us a fair amount in the end.  Examples:
February 8-9 blizzard: it appeared at one point during the storm that NYC and NJ would not get big snows but rather a couple of inches, with a dry slot and sleet.  A couple of hours later, however, the heavy snow bands we had been waiting for had finally come and I ended up with a satisfying 12.5" (I was expecting 15" before the storm)
March 6-8 winter storm: I was expecting 3-6 inches for NYC over that whole stretch.  From the morning of the 6th to the evening of the 7th, it produced nothing more than snow flurries, and I thought that was a complete bust.   Later that night, however, the temps gradually lowered below freezing, and the snow CONTINUED into the morning and afternoon EVEN WITH the March sun angle.  In fact, I actually ended up with MORE snow than I expected (8"!)
June 13-14 (ongoing) It appeared that it would be a torrential rain from late morning to the following morning with several inches of rain for NYC.  The system, however, ended up moving out faster than anticipated and brought 0.59" of rain ending by 2 PM.  I, like many others, was depressed with the "bust" feeling.  By the evening, however, storms along the low pressure system began to form.  And now, the radar depicts a classic nor'easter-like setup.  Central Park has well over an inch so far, and when all is said and done, I think 1.5"-2" may be the total, maybe not what I was expecting, but given my depressed feeling earlier, that's all I could ask for.

Ryan, "busts" are not always what they seem.  To some extent, weather forecasts usually have a tendency to verify, just not as we would like them to.  Do you have interest to become a meteorologist?  Because if you do, I think you will turn out great. Don't listen to what your peers at school have to say about weather forecasting. You provide great insight to the discussion to this forum and I hope you have success down the road with this!

[Snow88]

56 right now in Brooklyn.

[Sponsored content]