Re: June 2013 Casual Observation/Discussion Thread

[Math23x7]

Ace - looks like a nasty storm until the day of and we get showers and basically squat - WTF??

Well, the models had a very difficult time recognizing all the elements of the storm.The convection associated with the MCS pushing out of the west threw the models off with the placement of the low, and the associated convection with it. The models also had to handle the positing of the warm front, hence the severe weather threat, and a always difficult to model LP transfer. All of these components with the phasing and interaction of upper level systems made it a even more difficult forecast for models in terms of QPF, and forecast of the strength and location o f the heaviest convection. All in all the models failed at finding the correct solution and providing a basis  and guidance for us to forecast off. With so much discrepancy, we had to infer a large amount that what the guidance was suggesting. We, or at least I, thought some of the guidance was incorrect, due to this or that reason. I thought there was no way the original LP would track that far north, yet it did. I saw your post in the other thread about the heat you took, i think many of people who complain dont realize how difficult the job is to forecast and what goes into it. Many people think they can do it......but they dont even know lol ( a great example is the kids in my school...yesterday they were like, Ryan whats going down tomorrow, and i said im ot sure yet, and they said why......then i went off on a technical discussion they didn't understand....then again most of my friends are complete morons with too many concussions from sports (what can i expect? im in the sports group at school but I should complain, I have had the same group of friends since I can remember ) lol, ) ...Taking criticism is part of the job, and something we have to take alot of. when we blow 3 or 4 calls a year...Anyway  i digress..i need to study for finals

Ryan, I know how you feel about this particular situation.  From 2001-06 (I was 11-16 years old then, and will be 23 in a couple of weeks), I was very passionate about weather.  I would get excited waiting for Sam Champion (then with Eyewitness News) to give the weather forecast and I became obsessed with not only past events but also with weather forecasting and my dream job at the time was to become a meteorologist.  At the age of 16, however, when I was in my junior year of high school, I got a lot of discouragement from the people at my school telling me that meteorologists are clueless with the information and are rarely correct. In fact, someone even told me a story of a met that came close to losing his job (might have been Bolaris, not sure) because he was wrong on his forecasts.  Being the reactive person that I was then, I decided to stop following the weather closely.  It was in early-2009 that I became interested in weather again as I have come across weather forums and blogs (including the Channel 7 board), that have enhanced my weather knowledge further than it had before.  However, I had already decided on a different career path, and I am simply a hobbyist today.  Looking back, I certainly would have acted differently seven years ago.  

Now, it appears than many of the "busts" we have experienced have ended up giving us a fair amount in the end.  Examples:
February 8-9 blizzard: it appeared at one point during the storm that NYC and NJ would not get big snows but rather a couple of inches, with a dry slot and sleet.  A couple of hours later, however, the heavy snow bands we had been waiting for had finally come and I ended up with a satisfying 12.5" (I was expecting 15" before the storm)
March 6-8 winter storm: I was expecting 3-6 inches for NYC over that whole stretch.  From the morning of the 6th to the evening of the 7th, it produced nothing more than snow flurries, and I thought that was a complete bust.   Later that night, however, the temps gradually lowered below freezing, and the snow CONTINUED into the morning and afternoon EVEN WITH the March sun angle.  In fact, I actually ended up with MORE snow than I expected (8"!)
June 13-14 (ongoing) It appeared that it would be a torrential rain from late morning to the following morning with several inches of rain for NYC.  The system, however, ended up moving out faster than anticipated and brought 0.59" of rain ending by 2 PM.  I, like many others, was depressed with the "bust" feeling.  By the evening, however, storms along the low pressure system began to form.  And now, the radar depicts a classic nor'easter-like setup.  Central Park has well over an inch so far, and when all is said and done, I think 1.5"-2" may be the total, maybe not what I was expecting, but given my depressed feeling earlier, that's all I could ask for.

Ryan, "busts" are not always what they seem.  To some extent, weather forecasts usually have a tendency to verify, just not as we would like them to.  Do you have interest to become a meteorologist?  Because if you do, I think you will turn out great. Don't listen to what your peers at school have to say about weather forecasting. You provide great insight to the discussion to this forum and I hope you have success down the road with this!

[Snow88]

56 right now in Brooklyn.

[Frank_Wx]

Storms moving south into our area. Heavy downpours possible. 

[Snow88]

0z GFS continues to show the storm for next week

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=00&image=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_105_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[Frank_Wx]

Will be interesting to see if other models pick up on it

[Quietace]

A nice warm Dry week of weather ahead

[Snow88]

12z Nam  and Rgem shows some rain for tomorrow.

[Quietace]

Thunderstorms firing up over PA and NY state. We could see some isolated downpours across our area.

[Frank_Wx]

Boring boring boring.

[Quietace]

Nothing in the Longer Range really grabs my attention, but we could see some heat return for the end of the month......

[Frank_Wx]

Could be some severe weather this afternoon around our area. This is the NAM radar and it shows strong storms moving in after 3pm today. These storms will contain heavy downpours, hail, and gusty winds. No tornados expected. 

[Quietace]

Heads up, severe storms and heavy rain moving into the area...flash flooding possible, and is already reported in PA as these storms are very slow movers

[Math23x7]

As of 7:51 PM, Central Park has 9.79" of rain this June, surpassing 1903 as the third wettest June on record, behind only 2009 (10.06") and 2003 (10.27")

[Quietace]

I believe we have a chance for a period of extended 85+ heat next week (probably starting Saturday or Sunday to mid to late week) .....We will be seeing very warm 850s approaching 18-20 degrees celcius through out the week around the area, with a strong south westerly to westerly influence. It is a pretty decent setup for heat in our area. Only thing hindering tempatures would be annoying afternoon thunderstorms from the increased instability. Could be our potential 2nd heat wave of the year

[Frank_Wx]

We are going to enter a dry/warm pattern over the course of the next 7-10 days. A western ridge is going to build into the northeast as an area of High Pressure develops to our south and east, keeping us dry and in a southwesterly flow. By midweek next week, our pattern turns zonal and there will be some chances for showers or t-storms, but no prolonged rain events in sight. I was thinking NYC could see the all-time wettest June, but unless the last few days of June feature a rainstorm, we may not make it. We currently sit in 3rd place. Temps this weekend and next week will be in the mid 80's to low 90's for the most part. It will likely be our warmest stretch of weather so far this year. Some areas, specifically the Mid-Atlantic, will see a heat wave of 90+ degree days for 3 consecutive days.

[Frank_Wx]

Happy 1st day of summer

[Quietace]

After this mostly dry weather this week it, Looks like we will start off July with a massive ridge out to the west and a trough over the Great Lakes Region. This is also with a developing Bermuda high out east. The ridge in the west will start developing thus forcing the front over the Rockies to react on push east. This will cause the front to create a trough as it pushes toward the coast. Most models have  The Trough over the Great Lakes, and  looks to be setting it up to our west, but the  final location of the trough (how east it develops) depends on how fast and west the Bermuda High itself develops. Most models locate the trough to the west of us keeping us on the aforementioned east side.   Either way,  This would allow us to be located between the trough and the high to the east. Thus, that would bring us a warm humid SSW to S flow of "tropical" air out of the South. That tropical flow with this setup, would allow another extremely wet pattern to enter our area, with warm humid days between days with convection.  The Verdict on 4th of July is still out, but the overall pattern entering very early July is Warm, Humid, and Wet...

[Dunnzoo]

I think I'll be in my second heatwave this season starting today......91.4* today and it's only going to get hotter....

[Snow88]

92 and sunny right now in Sheepshead Bay

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=11229&sp=KNYBROOK41

[Dunnzoo]

I hit 94.5* today, so day 2 for me......

[Frank_Wx]

We have a lot of rain headed our way. Probably a good 2-4 inches of rain will fall through the next 7 days.

[Dunnzoo]

Looks a little lighter for Sunday, i hope, got tickets to the Mets game....

[Frank_Wx]

An upper level low is tracking across PA and towards NJ. Out in front of the primary low is a potent squall line producing severe weather in designated areas. As this squall line runs into the unstable air mass in NJ, it will bring the threat for severe weather, including isolated tornados, to the state (besides the Jersey Shore and immediate coast). Helping to fuel these storms are the upper level winds coming out of the southwest thanks to the positioning of the upper low. Keep an eye on the sky between 4:00-10:00pm tonight. Even before the squall line gets here, some cells may develop ahead of it. Even more rain can be expected into tomorrow morning as this low wraps around NJ and brings steady rain to the area. Off to work. Talk to you all later.

[Snow88]

Dangerous heat ongoing in the west. Las Vegas and Death Valley, CA are going to be in the upper 110's.

[Frank_Wx]

Meanwhile, SPC keeps getting our hopes up for storms every day and not a thing happens.

Lol.

[Quietace]

Well in upstate NY...it has rained everyday the last week....what a vacation. Lol. The lake I'm on is at flood stage...

[Dunnzoo]

OMG Ryan, you are a weather magnet.....stop by Bergen County on your way home, we need the rain, it has been passing us by all week except last night lol

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