2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

partly cloudy skies and 34 deg i am glad that the snow will happen late tonight in to tom morning at least it will try stick

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Can someone explain to me that radar looks like storm going way east so is it the northern storm that comes into the area later

We were always going to get an initial weak wave of LP that moved east OTS associated with the frontal boundary labeled 1.

CURRENT CONDITIONS:






As the ULL drops into the central plains a new more defined LP takes shape off of the EC somewhere between the Delmarva and Cape Hat and moves NE towards the BM along the frontal boundary labeled 2 in association with the vorticity embedded with the mean trough.  

Later tonight



The timing of this newly difined LP, and more importantly the timing of its intensification relative to our latitude is what makes or breaks this storm and how far west the precip comes.  The intensification occurs as the trough tilts from pos to neutral to neg as it begins to interact with the northern most trough labeled 3 above.  I think its fair to say that the trough does not go negative before it passes the BM; however, it still may go neutral.  Also there appears to be pretty decent vertical velocities which will lead to frontogenic forcings setting up for a period of about 6-8hrs that will enhance snowfall rates.  Where exactly the frontogenesis sets up will jackpot for our area.  The chances are def out over Nassau and Suffolk counties of LI, S CT, and areas along the NJ coast from say Toms river on northward.   





Without the trough going neg the enhanced lifting mechanisms described will be relied upon to achieve the higher snowfall amounts IMO making the ceiling for this storm 4-8"; however if the trough goes neutral or neg sooner than forecast totals will need to be increased.  Areas just to our N and E like RI and Eastern Mass have a much better chance at seeing the CCB bands, and maybe N eastern most LI that will devlop as the trough phass with the northern energy and tilts neg.  My heart is telling me my first call snow map will verify, esp for eastern sections; however, my gut tells me my lines need to shift 30-40miles to the east.  We are pretty much into the Now cast timeframe.  Ill prob only look at rgem, NAM, RAP, and HRRR today.  Global models are in too tight IMO.