2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

@sroc4 wrote:

@snow247 wrote:

@docstox12 wrote:it looks like YET AGAIN this storm goes S and E of me and I get a coating to an inch.

That's the new normal, doc. We should really look into why every storm has screwed N & W areas the past few years. I am starting to believe it's not just bad luck.

Doc and or snow do you guys have a reference for snow totals for your areas over the last few decades?  

Doc,CP is our Hudson Valley Stat Man .He should be able to answer this question.

Hope you are well good Buddy and enjoy the snow to come!

This is sounding like A SE coastal special also to note temp was 39° it's dropped to 36° in last 2 hours

Any euro maps?

Sunny 31.1°

Partly Sunny. 35*

Latest SREFS looks great. The bullseye appears to be from Jersey Shore through all of Long Island. 6 to 10 inches. I'll stick with 4-8 inches though. Then there's a sharp gradient for those N&W. Probably 3-6" for NYC, 2-4" for NJ and 1-3 as you go into west NJ and those N&W. 

6z JMA 

Let's see if we get a 20 mile tick nw the precip amounts n all 12z runs today that have started to show up somewhat . Frank and Sroc maps will verify and people will be left hanging.

36* and mostly cloudy but with a few breaks of sun. pretty noticeable northeast breeze probably about 10-12 mph.

Are we at nowcasting at this point. 37.5 still partly sunny

The fact that the bulk of this should come after dark will be a plus for accumulations as at this time of year with a stronger sun and temps expected above freezing it would be real hard to get anything to stick during the day. Even tonight I think it will have to get heavy at times to really stick on any paved surfaces which is why I suspect totals (in terms of what we actually see on roadways/walkways) will be a suppressed a bit from what is actually falling.

37

Already lightly snowing here, 30*.

SREF Plumes are 3-6 for the NYC area. Not bad.

Can someone explain to me that radar looks like storm going way east so is it the northern storm that comes into the area later

Frank. Any change in the timing at all??

@oldtimer wrote:Frank. Any change in the timing at all??

Nope, on and off rain and snow showers all day today. The main precip from the coastal storm won't arrive until 6-8pm.

1-3 inches for NYC with more to the east

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Can someone explain to me that radar looks like storm going way east so is it the northern storm that comes into the area later

Skins, the LP is still off the NC coast so it will take time to get up here. The northern energy may give some folks a little flurry action this morning.

@Dunnzoo wrote:

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Can someone explain to me that radar looks like storm going way east so is it the northern storm that comes into the area later

Skins, the LP is still off the NC coast so it will take time to get up here. The northern energy may give some folks a little flurry action this morning.

That's what I thought thank you

Some mets are predicting 1 and some 6 this is coming down to the wire

@jake732 wrote:Some mets  are predicting  1 and some 6 this is coming down to the  wire

The network mets seem to like the gfs which seems to be the outlier for precip totals. The short range models are a little more robust.

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Can someone explain to me that radar looks like storm going way east so is it the northern storm that comes into the area later

We were always going to get an initial weak wave of LP that moved east OTS associated with the frontal boundary labeled 1.

CURRENT CONDITIONS:






As the ULL drops into the central plains a new more defined LP takes shape off of the EC somewhere between the Delmarva and Cape Hat and moves NE towards the BM along the frontal boundary labeled 2 in association with the vorticity embedded with the mean trough.  

Later tonight



The timing of this newly difined LP, and more importantly the timing of its intensification relative to our latitude is what makes or breaks this storm and how far west the precip comes.  The intensification occurs as the trough tilts from pos to neutral to neg as it begins to interact with the northern most trough labeled 3 above.  I think its fair to say that the trough does not go negative before it passes the BM; however, it still may go neutral.  Also there appears to be pretty decent vertical velocities which will lead to frontogenic forcings setting up for a period of about 6-8hrs that will enhance snowfall rates.  Where exactly the frontogenesis sets up will jackpot for our area.  The chances are def out over Nassau and Suffolk counties of LI, S CT, and areas along the NJ coast from say Toms river on northward.   





Without the trough going neg the enhanced lifting mechanisms described will be relied upon to achieve the higher snowfall amounts IMO making the ceiling for this storm 4-8"; however if the trough goes neutral or neg sooner than forecast totals will need to be increased.  Areas just to our N and E like RI and Eastern Mass have a much better chance at seeing the CCB bands, and maybe N eastern most LI that will devlop as the trough phass with the northern energy and tilts neg.  My heart is telling me my first call snow map will verify, esp for eastern sections; however, my gut tells me my lines need to shift 30-40miles to the east.  We are pretty much into the Now cast timeframe.  Ill prob only look at rgem, NAM, RAP, and HRRR today.  Global models are in too tight IMO.