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2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map

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Post by docstox12 Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:49 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@snow247 wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:it looks like YET AGAIN this storm goes S and E of me and I get a coating to an inch.

That's the new normal, doc. We should really look into why every storm has screwed N & W areas the past few years. I am starting to believe it's not just bad luck.

Doc and or snow do you guys have a reference for snow totals for your areas over the last few decades?  

Doc,CP is our Hudson Valley Stat Man .He should be able to answer this question.

Hope you are well good Buddy and enjoy the snow to come!
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:51 am

This is sounding like A SE coastal special also to note temp was 39° it's dropped to 36° in last 2 hours
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Post by WOLVES1 Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:52 am

Any euro maps?
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Post by Radz Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:53 am

Sunny 31.1°
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Post by oldtimer Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:57 am

Partly Sunny. 35*

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Post by frank 638 Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:58 am

partly cloudy skies and 34 deg i am glad that the snow will happen late tonight in to tom morning at least it will try stick

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Post by sroc4 Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:04 am

@WOLVES1 wrote:Any euro maps?

2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map - Page 2 Euro10

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:05 am

Latest SREFS looks great. The bullseye appears to be from Jersey Shore through all of Long Island. 6 to 10 inches. I'll stick with 4-8 inches though. Then there's a sharp gradient for those N&W. Probably 3-6" for NYC, 2-4" for NJ and 1-3 as you go into west NJ and those N&W. 

2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map - Page 2 Image.gif.a51d17c96ad579a25dd13eb3dc943102

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:06 am

6z JMA 

2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map - Page 2 PR_000-048_0000.thumb.gif.91818575614d18cc8f95698b12ac1ca4

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Post by amugs Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:30 am

Let's see if we get a 20 mile tick nw the precip amounts n all 12z runs today that have started to show up somewhat . Frank and Sroc maps will verify and people will be left hanging.


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Post by billg315 Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:33 am

36* and mostly cloudy but with a few breaks of sun. pretty noticeable northeast breeze probably about 10-12 mph.
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Post by oldtimer Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:35 am

Are we at nowcasting at this point. 37.5 still partly sunny

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Post by billg315 Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:38 am

The fact that the bulk of this should come after dark will be a plus for accumulations as at this time of year with a stronger sun and temps expected above freezing it would be real hard to get anything to stick during the day. Even tonight I think it will have to get heavy at times to really stick on any paved surfaces which is why I suspect totals (in terms of what we actually see on roadways/walkways) will be a suppressed a bit from what is actually falling.
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Post by jake732 Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:38 am

37
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Post by snow247 Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:39 am

Already lightly snowing here, 30*.
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Post by Snow88 Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:42 am

SREF Plumes are 3-6 for the NYC area. Not bad.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:02 am

Can someone explain to me that radar looks like storm going way east so is it the northern storm that comes into the area later
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Post by oldtimer Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:02 am

Frank. Any change in the timing at all??

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:14 am

@oldtimer wrote:Frank. Any change in the timing at all??

Nope, on and off rain and snow showers all day today. The main precip from the coastal storm won't arrive until 6-8pm.

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Post by Snow88 Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:15 am

1-3 inches for NYC with more to the east
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:17 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Can someone explain to me that radar looks like storm going way east so is it the northern storm that comes into the area later

Skins, the LP is still off the NC coast so it will take time to get up here. The northern energy may give some folks a little flurry action this morning.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:27 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Can someone explain to me that radar looks like storm going way east so is it the northern storm that comes into the area later

Skins, the LP is still off the NC coast so it will take time to get up here. The northern energy may give some folks a little flurry action this morning.
That's what I thought thank you
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Post by jake732 Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:28 am

Some mets are predicting 1 and some 6 this is coming down to the wire
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:37 am

@jake732 wrote:Some mets  are predicting  1 and some 6 this is coming down to the  wire

The network mets seem to like the gfs which seems to be the outlier for precip totals. The short range models are a little more robust.

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Post by sroc4 Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:43 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Can someone explain to me that radar looks like storm going way east so is it the northern storm that comes into the area later


We were always going to get an initial weak wave of LP that moved east OTS associated with the frontal boundary labeled 1.

CURRENT CONDITIONS:
2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map - Page 2 Wv-animated
2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map - Page 2 Wv-ani10
2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map - Page 2 Namconus_z500_vort_us_1
2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map - Page 2 Namconus_ref_frzn_us_1
2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map - Page 2 Pmsl

As the ULL drops into the central plains a new more defined LP takes shape off of the EC somewhere between the Delmarva and Cape Hat and moves NE towards the BM along the frontal boundary labeled 2 in association with the vorticity embedded with the mean trough.  

Later tonight

2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map - Page 2 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_7
2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map - Page 2 Namconus_z500_vort_us_6

The timing of this newly difined LP, and more importantly the timing of its intensification relative to our latitude is what makes or breaks this storm and how far west the precip comes.  The intensification occurs as the trough tilts from pos to neutral to neg as it begins to interact with the northern most trough labeled 3 above.  I think its fair to say that the trough does not go negative before it passes the BM; however, it still may go neutral.  Also there appears to be pretty decent vertical velocities which will lead to frontogenic forcings setting up for a period of about 6-8hrs that will enhance snowfall rates.  Where exactly the frontogenesis sets up will jackpot for our area.  The chances are def out over Nassau and Suffolk counties of LI, S CT, and areas along the NJ coast from say Toms river on northward.   

2016 Spring Snowstorm: Observations & Snow Map - Page 2 Vert_v10



Without the trough going neg the enhanced lifting mechanisms described will be relied upon to achieve the higher snowfall amounts IMO making the ceiling for this storm 4-8"; however if the trough goes neutral or neg sooner than forecast totals will need to be increased.  Areas just to our N and E like RI and Eastern Mass have a much better chance at seeing the CCB bands, and maybe N eastern most LI that will devlop as the trough phass with the northern energy and tilts neg.  My heart is telling me my first call snow map will verify, esp for eastern sections; however, my gut tells me my lines need to shift 30-40miles to the east.  We are pretty much into the Now cast timeframe.  Ill prob only look at rgem, NAM, RAP, and HRRR today.  Global models are in too tight IMO.


Last edited by sroc4 on Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:45 am; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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