Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion

by **algae888** Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:52 pm

Yes jman i realize now what you were saying my bad. And just to be clear I never said this was not devastating but not for the entire area. this will be devastating to the Jersey Shore and anyone who lives near the Water by That bays and rivers even up into the City and Long Island but Inland areas this will not be bad in my opinion. We can't use the word devastating for areas North and West of the city that's all I'm saying.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:52 pm

amugs wrote:

that is an incredibly large area of wing chances jesus. Def trending west nhc totally buying it. I expect ts warnings up nyc area at 6pm update or later tonight if this continues.

by **algae888** Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:55 pm

18z nam is south and east almost no rain for the city

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:55 pm

algae888 wrote:Yes jman i realize now what you were saying my bad. And just to be clear I never said this was not devastating but not for the entire area. this will be devastating to the Jersey Shore and anyone who lives near the Water by That bays and rivers even up into the City and Long Island but Inland areas this will not be bad in my opinion. We can't use the word devastating for areas North and West of the city that's all I'm saying call.

devastating no but could there b a lot tree damage and power outages. I think that's very possible if not likely. Being inland really.only concern is wind and rain. What amazes me is how little rain is shown. I think as we get closer mesoscale models will pick up on bands and show heavier totals.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:57 pm

algae888 wrote:18z nam is south and east almost no rain for the city

it's the Nam and it's also weaker. I would personally toss it. Unless 00z models start show east again at which pt. I will pull my hair out lol

by **frank 638** Fri Sep 02, 2016 4:59 pm

just watched lee forcast he has nyc and west with half inch to 1 inch of rain with 40 to 60 mph winds while long island and south of jersey with 1 to 2 inches of rain with 60 to 80 mph winds.i thought nyc and west would see more rainfall

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 02, 2016 5:00 pm

There has been a lack of rain on most models for most areas even jersey shore to north. I just do not buy that.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 02, 2016 5:01 pm

frank 638 wrote:just watched lee forcast he has nyc and west with half inch to 1 inch of rain with 40 to 60 mph winds while long island and south of jersey with 1 to 2 inches of rain with 60 to 80 mph winds.i thought nyc and west would see more rainfall

did he say wind gusts or sustained? The rain perplexes me.

by kaos00723 Fri Sep 02, 2016 5:03 pm

jmanley32 wrote:There has been a lack of rain on most models for most areas even jersey shore to north. I just do not buy that.

Both Accuweather and TWC show not a drop of rain and almost no wind through Weds for North Jersey so I'm going with that. Smile

by **frank 638** Fri Sep 02, 2016 5:08 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:just watched lee forcast he has nyc and west with half inch to 1 inch of rain with 40 to 60 mph winds while long island and south of jersey with 1 to 2 inches of rain with 60 to 80 mph winds.i thought nyc and west would see more rainfall
did he say wind gusts or sustained? The rain perplexes me.

by **GreyBeard** Fri Sep 02, 2016 5:15 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/022045.shtml

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Sep 02, 2016 5:21 pm

Looking forward to a write up from Frank later to nail this thing down.

by New Yorker 234 Fri Sep 02, 2016 5:23 pm

Hi. I'm just a lurker here but I appreciate this forum.

I live in mid-Manhattan on a somewhat high floor with lots of glass. Sandy was scary but I survived with no damage or power loss.

Should I be concerned about Hermine other than normally so?

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 02, 2016 5:24 pm

That was a interesting read from.nhc lots gping on and uncertsinties. this is not nailed down yet 00z might get even more intense. But yes I'm hoping Franks analysis is at least somewhat towards a solution though we still have 2 days.

by **frank 638** Fri Sep 02, 2016 5:30 pm

what time frank will have another update i trust frank and everyone else on this board. also thank you for wonderful job u guys do hopefully we will have a get together soon and get to know everyone on this board .

by Guest Fri Sep 02, 2016 5:43 pm

.....to sound like a broken record, now that the track has shifted west and slightly north, HOW IS IT POSSIBLE that Long Island will get sustained 30 mph winds with gusts to 60+ and major surge for 3+ days from a storm located off Atlantic City NJ and inside the Benchmark yet only receive 1-2" of rain. This IMO is a freakin meteorological impossibility

....should be 1-2" in 30 minutes on and off from bands for heavens sake

by **Quietace** Fri Sep 02, 2016 5:48 pm

syosnow94 wrote:.....to sound like a broken record, now that the track has shifted west and slightly north, HOW IS IT POSSIBLE that Long Island will get sustained 30 mph winds with gusts to 60+ and major surge for 3+ days from a storm located off Atlantic City NJ and inside the Benchmark yet only receive 1-2" of rain. This IMO is a freakin meteorological impossibility

....should be 1-2" in 30 minutes on and off from bands for heavens sake

Agree. Convective nature of bands due to SST will drop that in reasonable amount of time. Though it may be more "localized" then widespread, but Ill pay closer attention to banding on hi-res models.

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Sep 02, 2016 5:49 pm

18z GFS has come in further west and stronger, in line with Latest Euro. Eric Holthaus just said on Twitter, "prepare for a Hurricane..."

by **amugs** Fri Sep 02, 2016 5:51 pm

18z GFS considerably west WOW

Hurricane Hermine Discussion - Page 38 4fd85524-ee93-405a-abcd-1153d28a2b8f

by Guest Fri Sep 02, 2016 5:52 pm

Quietace wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:.....to sound like a broken record, now that the track has shifted west and slightly north, HOW IS IT POSSIBLE that Long Island will get sustained 30 mph winds with gusts to 60+ and major surge for 3+ days from a storm located off Atlantic City NJ and inside the Benchmark yet only receive 1-2" of rain. This IMO is a freakin meteorological impossibility

....should be 1-2" in 30 minutes on and off from bands for heavens sake
Agree. Convective nature of bands due to SST will drop that in reasonable amount of time. Though it may be more "localized" then widespread, but Ill pay closer attention to banding on hi-res models.

I agree about the localized part, but over 3 full days you can reasonably expect several heavy squalls a day if not steady rain and even though the specific squall may be localized over this kind of duration all areas should easily get hit enough to total well over several inches.

by Guest Fri Sep 02, 2016 5:53 pm

amugs wrote:18z GFS considerably west WOW

...AND SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH by 100 miles????

by **amugs** Fri Sep 02, 2016 5:53 pm

Hurricane Hermine Discussion - Page 38 Edc29f2d-feb1-4c4b-bb2c-bdcf44b4db2b

a little north jog to it?

by **snow247** Fri Sep 02, 2016 5:55 pm

Still hits the wall stopping it from moving any further north.

by **amugs** Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:03 pm

The trends are there with the west aspect to this the North aspect for those who are a Dr. Destructor need about another 50 mile jog North if you want this.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:09 pm

Increased wind potential from nhc ts watch to 58 to 73mph. I'll post advisory when I get home but they upped potential for southern westchester.

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