Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

by **Joe Snow** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:02 am

It starts to pull away Fridays at 12Z holy moly

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:02 am

hr 84-90,it didnt budge at all.

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:03 am

Joe Snow wrote:It starts to pull away Fridays at 12Z holy moly

how the heck u get it tht fast?

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:07 am

GFS holds serve. No major changes from 18z.

by **sroc4** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:15 am

CMC through 24 NW and slight stronger than 12z FWIW.

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:22 am

Woah cmc. Has 6 plus inches rain tip li. Everything was west.

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:25 am

Gets down to 981mb.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:26 am

jmanley32 wrote:Woah cmc. Has 6 plus inches rain tip li. Everything was west.

That was a strange run. Storm was intense but compact. Should have had a much larger rain shield on the western flank into jersey.

by **HectorO** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:27 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:To me it looks like its getting ready to pop off the coast sooner further south towards the southern end of the "cone" if you will, imo this means it will be back over open water and stregnthen sooner, but also be further to the east, may/probably will make some kind of retrograde/loop over open water but highly doubt second landfall or close pass to land, this would keep winds in most areas out of the northeast and fairly light, some far eastern regions and further northeast may experience that damgerous easterly fetch that leads to coastal flooding and erosion but imo it may not be here. I use non-positive words because this storm has waffled so much on guidance and my tropical knowledge is limited, but to me, the threat of excessive rainfall and strong winds, such as with Irene and Sandy, both with a landfalling center in NJ, will not occur with Hermine if she stays several hundred miles SE off the coast. Just my .02, in short, thinking not changed much from earlier, no inital tuck in =/= stronger effects here. Also from a weenie perspective (as in wanting action) concerned about current trajectory and center position.

I'm on board with this. A lot of forecasts seem to have the storm with a sharper kick to the east then a slight turn to the west once it's far out enough. Don't think we're going to see that western turn that sharp like many people are thinking once it goes out to sea.

by **Joe Snow** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:29 am

jmanley32 wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:It starts to pull away Fridays at 12Z holy moly
how the heck u get it tht fast?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

by **Joe Snow** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:34 am

Just watched the CMC put the storm right on us in one of the loops, all models are seeing this going to be a strange one.

by **oldtimer** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:42 am

Joe Another hour for EURO?

by **Snow88** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:47 am

0z Ukie

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 7 X1av77

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 7 2mzcv42

by **Joe Snow** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:48 am

oldtimer wrote:Joe Another hour for EURO?

Yes I think at 1:00 am

by **Joe Snow** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:52 am

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/771928567731085312

OMG!!!!!!!!!! unreal

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:54 am

Snow88 wrote:0z Ukie

Oh MA lord....

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Sep 03, 2016 1:12 am

HectorO wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:To me it looks like its getting ready to pop off the coast sooner further south towards the southern end of the "cone" if you will, imo this means it will be back over open water and stregnthen sooner, but also be further to the east, may/probably will make some kind of retrograde/loop over open water but highly doubt second landfall or close pass to land, this would keep winds in most areas out of the northeast and fairly light, some far eastern regions and further northeast may experience that damgerous easterly fetch that leads to coastal flooding and erosion but imo it may not be here. I use non-positive words because this storm has waffled so much on guidance and my tropical knowledge is limited, but to me, the threat of excessive rainfall and strong winds, such as with Irene and Sandy, both with a landfalling center in NJ, will not occur with Hermine if she stays several hundred miles SE off the coast. Just my .02, in short, thinking not changed much from earlier, no inital tuck in =/= stronger effects here. Also from a weenie perspective (as in wanting action) concerned about current trajectory and center position.

I'm on board with this. A lot of forecasts seem to have the storm with a sharper kick to the east then a slight turn to the west once it's far out enough. Don't think we're going to see that western turn that sharp like many people are thinking once it goes out to sea.

Yep, and what the CMC showed is very CMC showed and highly dubious, NAM and UK have been consistent of further offshore, and unrelated but NAM nailed blizz of 2016 where others struggled due to mesoscale resolution. Globals with a big west retrograde just a tease imo. Havent EVER seen a stall that long at this latitute as long as I can remember, they usually pick up speed and head NE.

by **Snow88** Sat Sep 03, 2016 1:14 am

Ukie isn't offshore

It's similiar to the ggem

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Sep 03, 2016 1:23 am

SoulSingMG wrote:
Snow88 wrote:0z Ukie

Oh MA lord....

Even if it does retrograde closer to us, it loses all of its power while its over the open ocean, checked via E-wall maps, they show near 50kts sustained near the center but thats when its well offshore. When it retrogrades closer and drops to upper 990s and lower 1000s like CMC/GFS/UK show, winds are only 10-20kts sustained even close to the center (further out too, wind field spreads itself out by then). I'll reiterate, as a weenie, the current position, is concerning...

https://i.imgur.com/FqICqj6.jpg

If it somehow cant tug the coast closer or manage to retrograde earlier while a stronger low, I cant see much of anyone besides the immediate eastern and southern coasts getting any significant impacts.

by **Joe Snow** Sat Sep 03, 2016 1:57 am

Watching it live on Radar (GRLevel 3 and GRAnalyst) an outer band over the water in the North East section dropping 2.5" of rain in an hour.

Several Tornadoes broke out, a house was destroyed in Hatters from a tornado, and its all heading this way...............

by **pdubz** Sat Sep 03, 2016 2:23 am

from twitter

"The Euro brings Hermine further North than its last run. Bigger Problem for NJ and Long Island."

"0z Euro coming in. Theme continues, and it's a bad one. Jersey Shore/Long Island - now is the time to prepare."

by **billg315** Sat Sep 03, 2016 2:45 am

I'm at the South Jersey shore. Pleasant evening with a slight breeze. Everyone is just doing their Labor Day weekend thing. Nobody seems overly concerned. No Governor on the sand saying "get the Hell off the beach." Nobody boarding up or packing cars to leave. If this is as bad as some models - and folks on here - suggest, it appears unlike Irene and Sandy, the Jersey shore will have been woefully unprepared.

by **billg315** Sat Sep 03, 2016 2:49 am

This could be a disaster for the NJ coast, but my gut tells me, it stays far enough offshore to just be a nuisance. Models showing a storm like this retrograding to the coast and stalling for 3 or 4 days just don't seem credible. If they are, God help us.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:11 am

Please try to understand my point, here is the multi-panel GFS loop, click on hr 57 which is the "worst" frame for the area, afterwards winds quickly begin to weaken as the low does and precipitation is a non-issue.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_0z/gfsloop.html#picture

Yes there may be some coastal issues, but thats it. If it were a true threat, there would be a media frenzy, the food store I work at for a second job has been surprisingly quiet. I expect maybe a couple breezy and cloudy days, thats it.

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:32 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Please try to understand my point, here is the multi-panel GFS loop, click on hr 57 which is the "worst" frame for the area, afterwards winds quickly begin to weaken as the low does and precipitation is a non-issue.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_0z/gfsloop.html#picture

Yes there may be some coastal issues, but thats it. If it were a true threat, there would be a media frenzy, the food store I work at for a second job has been surprisingly quiet. I expect maybe a couple breezy and cloudy days, thats it.

Eeeeek. Why are you downplaying this storm so much? This really has the potential to be historic and unlike anything we've seen.

by **algae888** Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:47 am

euro came in weaker as far as wind gusts for our area. also doesn't make landfall in cape may as 12z showed but stays about 50 miles offshore. still very uncertain with track and intensity of this storm. I side with nj and sroc on this one as minor to moderate impacts for most areas. obviously closer to the coast the worse conditions will be. this storm could still shift 50 to 100 miles in either direction and is not really out of our area until Thursday.
12z wind gusts not sustained...

00z

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:53 am

SoulSingMG wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:Please try to understand my point, here is the multi-panel GFS loop, click on hr 57 which is the "worst" frame for the area, afterwards winds quickly begin to weaken as the low does and precipitation is a non-issue.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_0z/gfsloop.html#picture

Yes there may be some coastal issues, but thats it. If it were a true threat, there would be a media frenzy, the food store I work at for a second job has been surprisingly quiet. I expect maybe a couple breezy and cloudy days, thats it.

Eeeeek. Why are you downplaying this storm so much? This really has the potential to be historic and unlik6e anything we've seen.

No, Sandy was history, this wont even touch Irene or Floyd in terms of impacts.

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