Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

by **algae888** Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:47 am

euro came in weaker as far as wind gusts for our area. also doesn't make landfall in cape may as 12z showed but stays about 50 miles offshore. still very uncertain with track and intensity of this storm. I side with nj and sroc on this one as minor to moderate impacts for most areas. obviously closer to the coast the worse conditions will be. this storm could still shift 50 to 100 miles in either direction and is not really out of our area until Thursday.
12z wind gusts not sustained...

00z

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:53 am

SoulSingMG wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:Please try to understand my point, here is the multi-panel GFS loop, click on hr 57 which is the "worst" frame for the area, afterwards winds quickly begin to weaken as the low does and precipitation is a non-issue.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_0z/gfsloop.html#picture

Yes there may be some coastal issues, but thats it. If it were a true threat, there would be a media frenzy, the food store I work at for a second job has been surprisingly quiet. I expect maybe a couple breezy and cloudy days, thats it.

Eeeeek. Why are you downplaying this storm so much? This really has the potential to be historic and unlik6e anything we've seen.

No, Sandy was history, this wont even touch Irene or Floyd in terms of impacts.

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:54 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:Please try to understand my point, here is the multi-panel GFS loop, click on hr 57 which is the "worst" frame for the area, afterwards winds quickly begin to weaken as the low does and precipitation is a non-issue.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_0z/gfsloop.html#picture

Yes there may be some coastal issues, but thats it. If it were a true threat, there would be a media frenzy, the food store I work at for a second job has been surprisingly quiet. I expect maybe a couple breezy and cloudy days, thats it.

Eeeeek. Why are you downplaying this storm so much? This really has the potential to be historic and unlik6e anything we've seen.

No, Sandy was history, this wont even touch Irene or Floyd in terms of impacts.

I truly hope you're right.

by **algae888** Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:56 am

these are some images from forecasts and official data for hurricane sandy...
Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 8 -460

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 8 Gfs-model-hurricane-sandy-wind-gust-forecast

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 8 678475595-600x589

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 8 Sandysustainedwinds

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 8 Sandygustswinds

no model showing anything like this atm. sandy is a one in a hundred year storm. can things change yes and a little to close for comfort for my liking but doubt very much we see anything remotely close to sandy esp away from the coast

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:59 am

Hell, we might not even see a drop of rainfall, just a few cloudy and windy days, call it downplaying, but the track is just leading me to believe theres not much to happen in our area, if we were a few hundred miles east we'd see quite a show as it looks to go back to full tropical but thats probably whats keeping it offshore. Had it merged fully with the trough and ridden up the coast it would likely have turned extratropical and had more impacts on us as many of past the storms had.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Sep 03, 2016 4:02 am

The hybrid/extratropical transition we are no longer seeing modeled to happen by us us probably why its staying out to see. Less trough interaction and capture.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Sep 03, 2016 4:06 am

Listen I would really like to see something interesting like Sandy again but obviously less devastating, interesting but not devastating, sadly i dont think we'll see anything even interesting with this, which is why im PO'D, I actually want the extratropical transition but waters too warm, wind and precip field spreads out that way. But probably not gonna happen.

by **algae888** Sat Sep 03, 2016 4:17 am

6z nam is 7mb weaker than 00z at hr 36. wow!
Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 8 Nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_12

6z

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 8 Nam_mslp_pcpn_us_14

00z

by **algae888** Sat Sep 03, 2016 4:34 am

big changes on the nam and most models as hermine is coming in weaker...
Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 8 Nam_mslp_uv850_us_18

6z

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 8 Nam_mslp_uv850_us_20

00z

by **algae888** Sat Sep 03, 2016 4:41 am

here is latest nws disco for nyc metro...
The following impacts are at least possible if not expected:

1) Dangerous Rip Currents are expected from this weekend through
the middle of next week.

2) Moderate to probably major coastal flooding is likely from
Sunday into at least Monday and possibly Tuesday. Significant
beach erosion from high surf is also likely. Refer to the tides
and coastal flooding section of the AFD for details.

3) Sustained Winds to Tropical Storm Force (at least 39 mph) are
possible over mainly southern coastal areas from late Sunday into
Monday morning.

4) Locally heavy rainfall producing localized fresh water flooding
remains a relatively low threat. Refer to the hydrology section of
the AFD for details.

The ECMWF is alone in bringing in measurable precipitation before
12z Sunday...so have basically followed a non-ECMWF blend for
timing/distribution of precipitation. As a result have only chance
pops Sunday, then likely pops from Sunday night into Monday night.
Still have uncertainty on how fast Hermine exits to the east (The
ECMWF for now is a progressive outlier), so linger chance pops
into Wednesday - mainly over eastern zones.
beach erosion and coastal flooding main concern. tropical force sustained winds now confined to southern most areas.

by **algae888** Sat Sep 03, 2016 4:45 am

6z nam has no rain or tropical force winds for most of our area...
Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 8 Namconus_apcpn_us_22

4k nam also and 10 mb weaker.
Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 8 Nam4km_apcpn_us_17

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Sep 03, 2016 5:06 am

After reading up it now appears to be less impactful

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Sep 03, 2016 5:24 am

Observations seem to show precip shield hitting a wall as storm movement becomes more ENE, looks like its probably centered over water already, again, southern edge of cone = well south of hatteras verifying = further east solution.

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Sep 03, 2016 5:41 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Observations seem to show precip shield hitting a wall as storm movement becomes more ENE, looks like its probably centered over water already, again, southern edge of cone = well south of hatteras verifying = further east solution.

Yup. Big turn of events overnight. Dodged a big bullet it seems.

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Sep 03, 2016 5:46 am

Will see I wouldn't rule anything out yet a shift here or their could mean big problems or not

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 03, 2016 5:53 am

Wow I for one really wanted to see a decent storm and as of 5am she's already restrengthened to a 60mph ts. What a tease hermine. We aren't done thpugh so even thpugh models headed for a lesser or non event I still wouldn't let ur guard down until we see 12z and Franks update. Something still tells me hermine may surprise for more impacts or now it appears possible less. I know one thing if ends up being less a lot of us are go look silly to people we were warning and I for one don't want b there again.

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 03, 2016 5:54 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Will see I wouldn't rule anything out yet a shift here or their could mean big problems or not

ugg skins this is aging me and I'm only 35 lol

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 03, 2016 5:57 am

Mugs my friend that 50 miles nw u wanted opposite sigh.

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Sep 03, 2016 6:11 am

Looks like we dodged one

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 03, 2016 6:14 am

Well I dunno if I'd write it off yet but if 12z don't show more west I think it's go b pretty much a done deal. What a bunch bs that would b.

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Sep 03, 2016 6:15 am

Honestly I'm ok with it after I went through with Sandy that's was enough for me

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 03, 2016 6:32 am

I'll check in this afternoon to see what's up got plans first half day. Talk u all soon. Kinda want this shift at least a bit so we see a decent storm.don't want devastation but a decent storm I'll b happy if not it's not the first one we missed I guess. Hope not sign of the upcoming winter.

by **docstox12** Sat Sep 03, 2016 6:34 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Honestly I'm ok with it after I went through with Sandy that's was enough for me

EXACTLY skins.So glad to read this thing is becoming less and less of a threat.The NJ Shore has just recovered from that disaster.Let's get a Hermine that hits us in JANUARY so we can enjoy an area wide 25 to 30 inch snowstorm, with less winds and MORE snow!!!

by **sroc4** Sat Sep 03, 2016 6:39 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote: Hell, we might not even see a drop of rainfall, just a few cloudy and windy days, call it downplaying, but the track is just leading me to believe theres not much to happen in our area, if we were a few hundred miles east we'd see quite a show as it looks to go back to full tropical but thats probably whats keeping it offshore. Had it merged fully with the trough and ridden up the coast it would likely have turned extratropical and had more impacts on us as many of past the storms had.

The hybrid/extratropical transition we are no longer seeing modeled to happen by us us probably why its staying out to see. Less trough interaction and capture.

After looking over the models this morning there is no doubt the axis of heaviest impacts are seemingly trending away from the coast, but I was trying to see what was different in the modeling. Tom I think you really hit the nail on the head with your comments highlighted above. We will have to look very closely at observations today and hone in on the hi res models.

by **sroc4** Sat Sep 03, 2016 6:47 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Observations seem to show precip shield hitting a wall as storm movement becomes more ENE, looks like its probably centered over water already, again, southern edge of cone = well south of hatteras verifying = further east solution.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 8 Pmsl

by **sroc4** Sat Sep 03, 2016 6:50 am

by **rb924119** Sat Sep 03, 2016 7:22 am

Idk if anybody looked at the Euro ensembles from last night, but there is still a heavy northwest lean that are very close to what the OP had yesterday. I'm not letting my guard down at all with it; this could just be another wobble in the modeling. Waiting on the 12z suite.

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