Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

by **WeatherBob** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:07 pm

OK, seems like the forecast is loaded, locked and just fired! affraid

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:10 pm

At this time nhc calling for ts force winds al I'm sure they consider the convection lacking. But we will see. Getting a light breeze now. Maybe it won't b up to 73 mph but ts force is 39 to 73mph sustained which is still high enough to cause msinly tree and line damage.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:10 pm

Math23x7 wrote:Tom, what are your thoughts on the 12Z RGEM?

Just looked at it, its certainly aggressive, so this is tomorrow night according to it.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016090312&fh=36&xpos=0&ypos=53

Than this is Monday morning??
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016090312&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=429

Not like we havent seen that, but its very rare and I'm just doubtful still.

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:13 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Here's the moral of the story:

1. Very little rain impact for most, including the coast. Shores could see 1-2 inches of rain which is not a big deal. Everyone inland will see little to no rain. Dry air will wrap into the storm and prevent any convective banding from moving onshore, though coastal areas could still see heavy banding.

2. Winds along the coast will be sustained 35-45mph with gusts reaching 70mph at times. I wouldn't be shocked if someone recorded hurricane force winds at 75mph. Winds away from the coast will be sustained 25-35mph with gusts exceeding 50mph at times. There could be a period of time where winds are consistently above 40mph and that could lead to isolated power outages.

3. Coastal flooding is the main takeaway. Some towns in SNJ are already seeing it. Surge of 4-6 feet is expected up and down NJ into LI too. In conjunction with the tropical storm force winds that is not a pleasant situation. If you live on the shore I would prepare for flooding and power outages now just in case.

Overall, Hermine does not look like it will take a westerly turn once it gets 50-75 miles east of NJ. It may spin and stall, but that's different then physically tracking due west which would have been disastrous for the area. We're catching a huge break.

If anything changes with modeling today that would make me think the above forecast needs to be updated I will let you know. For now, that's my forecast.

Edit:

Timing is Sunday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. Yes, that's almost 4 days of high winds and dangerous surge. Consider this, that's like 8 high tide cycles Hermine has to work with. We'll begin to clear by Thursday when another heat wave is set to warm the area. Just remember...4 days! Worst of it will be Monday and Tuesday.

are those winds ur forcast for all areas including the warning areas up here in nyc and southern wc ct shore etc? So now it's pushed to monday? What do u think about the highest hurricane level it will reach wind wise. I understand won't b close enough just curious as its got a lot warm water to feed off of.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:14 pm

GGEM

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 15 Gem_mslp_pwat_us_10

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:17 pm

Not sure what I stumbled upon, but I highly doubt its accurate...
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=054&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=048

by **rb924119** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:19 pm

Buh-bye NJ :'(

by **WeatherBob** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:21 pm

NjWeatherGuy, its just insane with all of these models. How can anyone make sense of like 100 models !!!!! It drives me crazy. In my day, early 80's there was like 2 or 3 models. The LFM and then there was a tropical model, didn't know the name.

by **Snow88** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:22 pm

GGEM is further west and south but still very strong winds for the coast and some rain up here in NYC with more down south

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:28 pm

Yep 1st model to show actual rainfall tip nj sees 6 plus. Cmc puts a notch in the trend again lol. Makes full landfall crazy. Winds in nyc look to b high ts force if that run played out.

by **Snow88** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:33 pm

12z GGEM has over an inch of rain for NYC with 2 inches + just south of the NYC area

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016090312/gem_apcpn_us_20.png

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:34 pm

Never really noticed the 6z GFDL hurricane model after 12z was further east, wonder what 12z shows, should run soon
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl&region=09L&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2016090306&fh=42&xpos=0&ypos=249

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:36 pm

All nyc beaches closed tomorrow and posdibly monday per news.

by **Snow88** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:46 pm

12z Ukie has the similiar position as 0z but it's weaker and further north than the rest of the models.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=060

by **Math23x7** Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:54 pm

I pieced together some information regarding the 9Z SREFs. I used JFK airport because I'm just a few miles NNE of there. Using the 26 members, I put in the highest sustained wind speed (which I converted from kts to mph) and put in the time of the peak sustained winds. I then summarized the information:

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 15 Srefsh10

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 15 Srefsh10

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 03, 2016 1:04 pm

Math23x7 wrote:I pieced together some information regarding the 9Z SREFs. I used JFK airport because I'm just a few miles NNE of there. Using the 26 members, I put in the highest sustained wind speed (which I converted from kts to mph) and put in the time of the peak sustained winds. I then summarized the information: Franks forecast almost exactly. Prolly bout same here in southern wc. Maybe bit less. We will see. We really don't totally know how far north or west hermine will go and it appears intensity all over on models. They seem useless honestly.

by **amugs** Sat Sep 03, 2016 1:04 pm

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 15 Rbtop-animated

Slowing down - HP is going to flex its muscle -Ukie showing a North jog but a more west trend
Gfs is chasing the convection on teh east side of this - displaces the L center of circulation to far east imo as per satellite.

Jersey shore is going to be saying 1962 storm?

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 03, 2016 1:05 pm

Sorry math embedded my response in ur txt will fix when home. Mobile now.

by **aiannone** Sat Sep 03, 2016 1:06 pm

I am home on Long Island and ready to ride it out!

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 03, 2016 1:07 pm

Stores still pretty empty here. O know it's just go b mainly strong windstorm but people usually freak so I guess didn't hear ts,warning or changed and font panic anymore.

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 03, 2016 1:09 pm

amugs wrote:

Slowing down - HP is going to flex its muscle -Ukie showing a North jog but a more west trend
Gfs is chasing the convection on teh east side of this - displaces the L center of circulation to far east imo as per satellite.

Jersey shore is going to be saying 1962 storm?

when is it supposed to reintensify no real convection firing center pretty devoid.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Sep 03, 2016 1:10 pm

12z HWRF seems quite a bit further west

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=09L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016090312&fh=51&xpos=0&ypos=199

by **rb924119** Sat Sep 03, 2016 1:14 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:12z HWRF seems quite a bit further west

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf®ion=09L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016090312&fh=51&xpos=0&ypos=199

It's comparable to 00z. Are you comparing to 06z?

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 03, 2016 1:14 pm

Hwrf is string sub 980mb. Looks bout same at hr 69 rain bands into nyc can't really see wind field up there

by **jmanley32** Sat Sep 03, 2016 1:17 pm

Hwrf wayyyyy west of 06z.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Sep 03, 2016 1:18 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Not sure what I stumbled upon, but I highly doubt its accurate...
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=054&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=048

Yep its the CMC, these models really do drive you nuts. I've been up all night since work and have to work again tonight and we'll see where things are. Since things keep evolving (initally it was shown to ride the coast and possibly make second landfall and come right at us, then we see an OTS solution, now a possible close pass retrograde after heading NE off the Carolinas), I still think a further east solution is possible, (misses capture), I think a stall somewhere where the GFS shows is possible, and now maybe a close call to or maybe even a second landfall again could be trending, still another day or two of runs before its nailed down completely. Tropical systems are very unpredictable, may check in a few more times as I eat my much before I go to bed but this has been a hell of a ride...

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Sep 03, 2016 1:21 pm

rb924119 wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:12z HWRF seems quite a bit further west

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=09L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016090312&fh=51&xpos=0&ypos=199

It's comparable to 00z. Are you comparing to 06z?

Yes to the 6z its significantly further west, to the 0z its a hair north and a mb stronger.

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