Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Idk if anybody looked at the Euro ensembles from last night, but there is still a heavy northwest lean that are very close to what the OP had yesterday. I'm not letting my guard down at all with it; this could just be another wobble in the modeling. Waiting on the 12z suite.

Not to mention the Control is horrible for the Jersey shore still. Would not be surprised to see things come back for 12z. I'm headed on my computer now so I'll be able to do some legitimate analysis.

rb924119 wrote:Idk if anybody looked at the Euro ensembles from last night, but there is still a heavy northwest lean that are very close to what the OP had yesterday. I'm not letting my guard down at all with it; this could just be another wobble in the modeling. Waiting on the 12z suite.

Agreed

See this is the problem no one knows for sure crazy these models

Wow. Just woke up and caught up. This sucks. What a tease. I went to bed after reading Frank's blog expecting an epic 3 day event and now POOF gone. BS! What a tease. Really frustrating

syosnow94 wrote:Wow. Just woke up and caught up. This sucks. What a tease. I went to bed after reading Frank's blog expecting an epic 3 day event and now POOF gone. BS!  What a tease. Really frustrating

Not gone James

Ok here's my first report from the South Jersey coast. The winds have picked up considerably overnight. Right now very gusty winds under a solid cloudy sky. Wind report is NNE at 22 mph. I'll try to update periodically, but if the models worst case scenarios play out I may skedaddle off this island at some point.

From water vapor imagery it looks like Hermine is moving pretty fast still. Some models had her slowing down by now and moving more north instead of northeast. It seems models over-estimated the location or strength of the block. We'll see what 12z says.

billg315 wrote:Ok here's my first report from the South Jersey coast. The winds have picked up considerably overnight. Right now very gusty winds under a solid cloudy sky. Wind report is NNE at 22 mph. I'll try to update periodically, but if the models worst case scenarios play out I may skedaddle off this island at some point.

Check this out...

There is some convection firing north of the core and it appears the 500mb low is beginning to form and close off. This should slow Hermine down considerably by this afternoon.

Ok, so those of you who know me, know that I only analyze the height patterns of the 00z models when comparing to reality. For what it's worth, both of the hurricane models, HWRF and GFDL are bad for the shore (the GFDL moreso than the HWRF, but the HWRF is not a bargain; it actually heads for LI as a moderate tropical storm). Anyway, from my analysis there is already a CLEAR interaction between the key pieces at H5, as there is a sizeable CLOSED 582 dam height contour extending from Cape May back through the Appalachians and then out towards the NC coast. If you want a storm, to me, this is a GREAT sign, but obviously opposite if you're like me and want this to miss wide-right. Unfortunately, there are only models that I can find that do this are: 00z EURO and GFS. You know what those solutions do. Therefore, I AM NOT INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE EASTWARD TREND IN SOME** OF THE GUIDANCE FROM 06z. The earlier interaction leads me to believe that this will not be allowed to escape as far to the east as some of the runs, and in opinion argues for solutions like we were seeing yesterday to come back for 12z. Secondly, it appears that the northern piece of shear vorticity phasing in is actually stronger than most guidance, which also supports my thinking. It also supports my thinking that this system could end up stronger than modeled, and I think that the EURO and the hurricane models are picking up on, now showing estimated pressures ending up in the 970's. I could be wrong, and lets discuss, but that's what I'm finding for now.

Looks like the EPS came in west of the OP....

Stole my thunder, Frank lol

It looks disorganized

skinsfan1177 wrote:It looks disorganized

Yes. It actually looks like a Nor'easter. Remember that this system is going from Hurricane to extratropical back to Hurricane (or strong Tropical Storm). Once it's over the Atlantic for a day it will go back to looking warm-core.

rb924119 wrote:Stole my thunder, Frank lol

It will be interesting to see what happens.

Im still not impressed, still looks charging NE to me

My gut firmly believes 6zs went east due to obs and 12zs will for sure follow suit, would almost bet on it and not a gambling man.

If you look at it on radar would you say thats gonna hit us? I mean really? You can see its going to sleep with the fishes. Even if it does retrograde its just toying with us, it'll keep all the fun offshore.

Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like the EPS came in west of the OP....

This is not over by any means Frank. When it comes to tracking Hermine, there are several variables at play here that will ultimately affect her track. RB points this out very well. Would not at all shock me if at 12z we're right back in the pressure cooker.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:If you look at it on radar would you say thats gonna hit us? I mean really? You can see its going to sleep with the fishes. Even if it does retrograde its just toying with us, it'll keep all the fun offshore.

You are not getting the point. Coastal flooding and possible wind damage is still very much on the table. A Hurricane that will stall for 2-3 days off the coast is going to be problematic for many people along the shore and a few miles inland. The rest of us are in wait and see mode to see if the retrograde comes to fruition. If it does, the wind will reach TS strength for much of the state. If it does not, we should be able to salvage the holiday weekend with just overcast and breezy conditions. Rain never looked like a big deal for those away from the coast.

Here is the surge forecast

03z SREFs were west too, just realized that lol

Where I am rain will be a secondary concern. It's the wind and more importantly the surge that will determine whether this island goes under water or has structural damage.

Most of the SREF members that correctly portrayed H5 are bad for the coast.