Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Not sure what I stumbled upon, but I highly doubt its accurate...
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=054&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=048

Yep its the CMC, these models really do drive you nuts. I've been up all night since work and have to work again tonight and we'll see where things are. Since things keep evolving (initally it was shown to ride the coast and possibly make second landfall and come right at us, then we see an OTS solution, now a possible close pass retrograde after heading NE off the Carolinas), I still think a further east solution is possible, (misses capture), I think a stall somewhere where the GFS shows is possible, and now maybe a close call to or maybe even a second landfall again could be trending, still another day or two of runs before its nailed down completely. Tropical systems are very unpredictable, may check in a few more times as I eat my much before I go to bed but this has been a hell of a ride...

rb924119 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:12z HWRF seems quite a bit further west

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=09L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016090312&fh=51&xpos=0&ypos=199

It's comparable to 00z. Are you comparing to 06z?

Yes to the 6z its significantly further west, to the 0z its a hair north and a mb stronger.

Buoy off VA Beach saying we have Hcane gusts

18' waves
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44014

Anyone noticed how this storm keeps getting delayed on the models by the time it comes up here? Seems like it keeps getting pushed back. Ukie has it around 54-60 hours over here now.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Not sure what I stumbled upon, but I highly doubt its accurate...
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=054&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=048

Yep its the CMC, these models really do drive you nuts. I've been up all night since work and have to work again tonight and we'll see where things are. Since things keep evolving (initally it was shown to ride the coast and possibly make second landfall and come right at us, then we see an OTS solution, now a possible close pass retrograde after heading NE off the Carolinas), I still think a further east solution is possible, (misses capture), I think a stall somewhere where the GFS shows is possible, and now maybe a close call to or maybe even a second landfall again could be trending, still another day or two of runs before its nailed down completely. Tropical systems are very unpredictable, may check in a few more times as I eat my much before I go to bed but this has been a hell of a ride...

SO true and we have 2-3 more days - YIPPEEEEEE!!

jmanley32 wrote:All nyc beaches closed tomorrow and posdibly monday per news.

oh yeah de Blasio already flexed his muscle on TV lol, Cuomo hasn't said anything yet. He also said bridges would be closed as appropriate if the winds hit a certain speed.

i am surprised the mayor hasnt given another press conference or that there hasnt been any evacuations for fire island

Wow hwrf sits off central jersey shore forever pumping ts winds into the entire area for over 48 hrs!

Christie made his famous deceleration state of emergency a few minutes ago

"Being prepared before an event happens is probably the most important thing you can do," Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone said. "We don't have enough information to warrant a suggestion that people don't go to Fire Island for the weekend. We want people to enjoy the Labor Day weekend."

MIND BLOWN!

Tropical Storm Warning.... go to the barrier island....idiot

2 pm update from Sea Isle: still Cloudy but no rain. At times it looks like the sun is trying to peek through, but not quite succeeding. If you look to the west you see broken cloud cover, to the east solid gray. Winds are whipping. NE at 25 mph with higher gusts. Just went to the beach and the sea was rough, but not crazy. Island is preparing for more flooding at next high tide this evening.

Didn't realize hermine now 65mph almost a hurricane again.

Oh, and I discovered sand REALLY stings your legs and face when it's this windy. Lol.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016090312/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_3.png

rb924119 wrote:Euro is east through 54!

Hooked back very far west

These models are still all over the place

Euro east not good if you want a storm

Got one of those calls from Nassau County Emergency Communication Notification county exec. Ed Mangano, and all that was said was that people in coastal communities should be aware of a strong tidal surge. No mention of damaging wind possibilities or anything like that.

Euro went east but then came way west close to li north of earlier. Models got no clue. This run puts very strong winds all along jersey to ct and to and inland some.

rb924119 wrote:Way east!! WOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!! Only problem is this complicates things. Imagine that. We have the NAM, CMC, RGEM, GDFL all west, GFS, UKMET and HWRF held serve, and now the EURO is east. I can't anymore. I just can't lol

rb wait u must b out far enough comes wayyyyy back west.