Re: June 12th-13th Severe Weather Discussions/Observations Thread

[Math23x7]

The 12Z Canadian run just came out. Holy smokes!

[Frank_Wx]

I will make a blog with my rainfall map and update the 12z runs.

[Frank_Wx]

Map for tomorrow

[Quietace]

Heard the 12z Euro only had about 1.75 for NYC

[Frank_Wx]

The models are kind of sheering the storm apart now. We have to see what radar looks like tomorrow morning and nowcast the storm

[Frank_Wx]

NAM radar is impressive for tomorrow.

[Quietace]

HPC is going with a more southern Precipitation axis, which means they also see a more southern track. 

[Quietace]

The models are kind of sheering the storm apart now. We have to see what radar looks like tomorrow morning and nowcast the storm

The GFS and NAM aren't really phasing with the energy coming out of Canada, its causing a much weaker system. With no phase, the precipitation is weaker and dies out until the coastal low gets going. 
For example the 12z NAM, the original piece of energy moving east is almost off shore. The second energy hasnt even interacted with it, and almost never does, this causes no energy to pump into the system, so it never really strengthens that severely.  

Yesterday, we were worried why the NAM was too north, it had too much interaction with the energy, phased it early and pulled it north with exaggerated QPF totals. I feel, since the complexity of the upper level systems, all three of them ( ULL near Maine, Energy in Canada, and the low out west), just as in winter, the models may be mishandling them. As frank said, looking at the current obs, tonight and tomorrow will give us more info on how the low is deepening, and how the systems are interacting.  
I think the models will trend back to a stronger system, this is a classic model shift back and forth.

[Frank_Wx]

18z NAM is looking more bullish now. Lets see if it phases

[Frank_Wx]

12z NAVGEM is an all out phase and worst case scenario 

[Math23x7]

Lee Goldberg seems to be backing off the really heavy rain in the NYC region and calls for 1-2 inches of rain for that region and that it'll be in between the soaking rain (north of NYC) and the severe weather (south of NYC).  Awaiting tonight's short-term model updates.

[Quietace]

18z NAM went crazy, 2-4 inches widespread all the way down to Central Jersey. The coastal really intensified quick after phasing and threw another batch of very heavy precip into the area. The low was also pretty south. If it had a little earlier phase, i think it could have looked like the NAVGEM above.
Im a little worried for coastal areas, that run was screaming east winds slamming into the coast for a while

[Frank_Wx]

GFS is garbage. I am considering never looking at this model again.

[Frank_Wx]

This is why this storm is a lose-lose situation for most of us. This is the CAPE from the 18z GFS. Since the low tracked further north, look how far northeast the highest CAPE gets. This would spark severe supercells

[Quietace]

The tornado threat would also move north with that.....but that wont happen, GFS is dead wrong as you said
And i just looked at the GFS 500mb, the way it handles everything is just flat out bizarre, it phases with the energy put of Canada early, pulling it and the convection to the north, and then phases with a piece of energy that broke off the ULL and pulls it and the convection further north. That third piece of energy breaking off the ULL dose not exist that far south, on other models, it only interacts with it when its past the Canadian Maritime. 
Here is the early interaction


They phase then start to interact with a piece of energy attached to the ULL


Then you can see both piece of energy converge, pulling the LP north




Unless every other model is not picking up on that last piece of energy breaking off the ULL that south, then the GFS is wrong. Jeez, i though the Model Madness was over this morning......i was wrong lol

[Quietace]

Just a quick FYI, look what happening out west.....goodbye Chicago

There is you MCS

[Frank_Wx]

Everything split before it reached Chicago. Kind funny. Lol

[amugs]

We talking Chat Room tonight? or is this going to be a nowcast storm?

[Dunnzoo]

I'm in for a chat, here now...

[Quietace]

Were in the chat box if everyone wants to join

[amugs]

'I'm there guys!

[Quietace]

Hour 39 precip total on HI-Res NAM

[Frank_Wx]

00z GFS has around 2 inches of rain for NYC Metro

[Frank_Wx]

Officially a Derecho

[Math23x7]

Not sure how to say this, but after the current band of rain in New Jersey, with it's back edge near Allentown, I don't see how the NYC tri-state area gets any more rain.  This storm seems to be moving much faster than anticipated.

[Frank_Wx]

The surface low ended up taking the north track. So less rain is expected, but now we have to worry about severe weather this afternoon developing along the front. It's a trade off. Rain or severe weather? Looks like we will see severe Wx

[Frank_Wx]

This storm was a bust and I'm pissed.

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