HURRICANE MATTHEW

OMG...

Hmm moving NE, go miss?

Just inside the benchmark

CMC shreds the storm and stays OTS lol

Hmm both GFS and CMC now head east OTS, well maybe that door isn't closing, but where that block go?

ZIt may hook back to maine again, a late capture like yesterday I believe. Ehh to far out to decide anything.

Really CMC? That model sucks.

jmanley32 wrote:Hmm both GFS and CMC now head east OTS, well maybe that door isn't closing, but where that block go?

CMC is OTS but not the GFS. The block is still there on the GFS. The trough is just a little too late on the GFS.

This is a week out so many more solutions to go

Quietace wrote:

algae888 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

algae888 wrote:Today's GFS is on the easternmost side of the cone from official National Hurricane Center forecast by 8 a.m. Sunday. It is Northwest of the official location by at least 150 miles if not more. I would take the GFS with a grain of salt it is not going to be right

Reasoning? I am not saying you are incorrect but why?

Ace I don't believe the GFS positioning is correct it is way off of National Hurricane centers official forecast location. It's off at almost every position for the first 4 days. So then how can we trust the GFS days 5 or later plus most of the more reliable guidance has its south of where the GFS is showing

Whats the more reliable guidance? The NHC cone is basically a mean between the GFS/ECMWF if you take a look at the discussion. The usual prog for a uncertain scenario.

I actually agree that the euro package has a better handle on the overall set up. Specifically the Atlantic ridge. It has been a force to be reckoned with all summer and has persistantly and adamantly reared its ugly head time and time again. In addition I think the track into the the E and Central Caribbean is too far north to begin with. I think the short term modeling of the shear and easterlies in the E and Central Caribbean will knock down the flare up we are seeing today albiet only temporarily. I still believe the combination of a WAR that ends up further west towards the coast will ultimately lend itself to a soln on the western half of the current forecast cone. The Euro IMO is handing these conditions correctly. Current observations of the shear and the low level easterlies out ahead of the system support this idea.

I think for reasons Ray, (RB) mentioned this morning there remains a weakness and an escape plan OTS without a capture as per the GFS LR set up.

sroc4 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

algae888 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

algae888 wrote:Today's GFS is on the easternmost side of the cone from official National Hurricane Center forecast by 8 a.m. Sunday. It is Northwest of the official location by at least 150 miles if not more. I would take the GFS with a grain of salt it is not going to be right

Reasoning? I am not saying you are incorrect but why?

Ace I don't believe the GFS positioning is correct it is way off of National Hurricane centers official forecast location. It's off at almost every position for the first 4 days. So then how can we trust the GFS days 5 or later plus most of the more reliable guidance has its south of where the GFS is showing

Whats the more reliable guidance? The NHC cone is basically a mean between the GFS/ECMWF if you take a look at the discussion. The usual prog for a uncertain scenario.

I actually agree that the euro package has a better handle on the overall set up. Specifically the Atlantic ridge.  It has been a force to be reckoned with all summer and has persistantly and adamantly reared its ugly head time and time again.  In addition I think the track into the the E and Central Caribbean is too far north to begin with.  I think the short term modeling of the shear and easterlies in the E and Central Caribbean will knock down the flare up we are seeing today albiet only temporarily.  I still believe the combination of a WAR that ends up further west towards the coast will ultimately lend itself to a soln on the western half of the current forecast cone.  The Euro IMO is handing these conditions correctly.  Current observations of the shear and the low level easterlies out ahead of the system support this idea.  

I will just stress that all guidance at this point should be handled equally. I wouldn't make definite statements, its a observation period, not forecast period.

Ace I agree that all options are still on the table but the eps and Euro are the most reliable model. That is a fact.  the GFS is wrong from its starting point so why should it be trusted with the track of this system. The Euro and ukie have Matthew taking a Southwest track Saturday and have been consistently showing this for several days even todays nam does this. I'll Trust these models going forward. On a side note having trouble posting on the site today anybody else have the same problem

Ace let me put it this way the GFS will be wrong in the first 72 hours after that all guidance is a crapshoot as you know. just trying to bring a little perspective to the discussion here as most favor and only look at the most extreme outcomes. Eps has a 1004 LP entering the Gulf of Mexico that means there must be many solutions that has no storm at all or very weak one. these solutions we don't hear too much about.

Quietace wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

algae888 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

algae888 wrote:Today's GFS is on the easternmost side of the cone from official National Hurricane Center forecast by 8 a.m. Sunday. It is Northwest of the official location by at least 150 miles if not more. I would take the GFS with a grain of salt it is not going to be right

Reasoning? I am not saying you are incorrect but why?

Ace I don't believe the GFS positioning is correct it is way off of National Hurricane centers official forecast location. It's off at almost every position for the first 4 days. So then how can we trust the GFS days 5 or later plus most of the more reliable guidance has its south of where the GFS is showing

Whats the more reliable guidance? The NHC cone is basically a mean between the GFS/ECMWF if you take a look at the discussion. The usual prog for a uncertain scenario.

I actually agree that the euro package has a better handle on the overall set up. Specifically the Atlantic ridge.  It has been a force to be reckoned with all summer and has persistantly and adamantly reared its ugly head time and time again.  In addition I think the track into the the E and Central Caribbean is too far north to begin with.  I think the short term modeling of the shear and easterlies in the E and Central Caribbean will knock down the flare up we are seeing today albiet only temporarily.  I still believe the combination of a WAR that ends up further west towards the coast will ultimately lend itself to a soln on the western half of the current forecast cone.  The Euro IMO is handing these conditions correctly.  Current observations of the shear and the low level easterlies out ahead of the system support this idea.  

I will just stress that all guidance at this point should be handled equally. I wouldn't make definite statements, its a observation period, not forecast period.

I agree in part. There is no reason to weight the Euro equal to the GFS in the next 1-3days if you think its wrong. And I dont think its unreasonable to make inferences about a 5day period based on what happens inside 3 days. If we cant forecast something inside 3 days then when can we? My point is there are still differences in the forecast inside 3days on position and strength which play a huge role in what happens between 3-5days. Based on current observations combined with modeling I believe that the euro is handling what I believe to be the the overall outcome to hold true. Every good forecaster has to go on what he/she feels is handling the conditions correctly. I also believe the NHC is also leaning left towards the euro soln as only the N part of the cone is where the GFS has been consistantly, and the furthest west the GFS has the track once it heads N is western tip of Haiti, yet the cone of uncertailty leans way L of that. This is a clear indication that the GFS is not weighted as heavily right now as the Euro and its ensembles. Could it shift towards the GFS of course.

sroc4 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

algae888 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

algae888 wrote:Today's GFS is on the easternmost side of the cone from official National Hurricane Center forecast by 8 a.m. Sunday. It is Northwest of the official location by at least 150 miles if not more. I would take the GFS with a grain of salt it is not going to be right

Reasoning? I am not saying you are incorrect but why?

Ace I don't believe the GFS positioning is correct it is way off of National Hurricane centers official forecast location. It's off at almost every position for the first 4 days. So then how can we trust the GFS days 5 or later plus most of the more reliable guidance has its south of where the GFS is showing

Whats the more reliable guidance? The NHC cone is basically a mean between the GFS/ECMWF if you take a look at the discussion. The usual prog for a uncertain scenario.

I actually agree that the euro package has a better handle on the overall set up. Specifically the Atlantic ridge.  It has been a force to be reckoned with all summer and has persistantly and adamantly reared its ugly head time and time again.  In addition I think the track into the the E and Central Caribbean is too far north to begin with.  I think the short term modeling of the shear and easterlies in the E and Central Caribbean will knock down the flare up we are seeing today albiet only temporarily.  I still believe the combination of a WAR that ends up further west towards the coast will ultimately lend itself to a soln on the western half of the current forecast cone.  The Euro IMO is handing these conditions correctly.  Current observations of the shear and the low level easterlies out ahead of the system support this idea.  

I will just stress that all guidance at this point should be handled equally. I wouldn't make definite statements, its a observation period, not forecast period.

I agree in part. There is no reason to weight the Euro equal to the GFS in the next 1-3days if you think its wrong.  And I dont think its unreasonable to make inferences about a 5day period based on what happens inside 3 days.  If we cant forecast something inside 3 days then when can we?  My point is there are still differences in the forecast inside 3days on position and strength which play a huge role in what happens between 3-5days.  Based on current observations combined with modeling I believe that the euro is handling what I believe to be the the overall outcome to hold true.  Every good forecaster has to go on what he/she feels is handling the conditions correctly. I also believe the NHC is also leaning left towards the euro soln as only the N part of the cone is where the GFS has been consistantly, and the furthest west the GFS has the track once it heads N is western tip of Haiti, yet the cone of uncertailty leans way L of that.  This is a clear indication that the GFS is not weighted as heavily right now as the Euro and its ensembles.  Could it shift towards the GFS of course.    

Well just agree to disagree.

sroc4 wrote:I think for reasons Ray, (RB) mentioned this morning there remains a weakness and an escape plan OTS without a capture as per the GFS LR set up.  

CMC shows similar escape route:

Oy now we are talking OTS more likely?

GEFS is further west than the op

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2016092812&fh=186&xpos=0&ypos=927

Some heavy hitters

jmanley32 wrote:Oy now we are talking OTS more likely?

No

They are discussing the model runs. Every option is on the table with a storm more than a week away.

Snow88 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Oy now we are talking OTS more likely?

No

They are discussing the model runs. Every option is on the table with a storm more than a week away.

This ^ Thank you Tony. Anything beyond 3-5 days is all in play. From OTS to GOM track. We still have to nail down 1-3

HOLY HANNAHS HERE:

Larry Cosgrove this morning:

There is considerable difficulty in predicting the likely track of what is now Invest 97L. While I am confident that this system will be deemed "Matthew" and eventually acquire hurricane status, the lack of cohesion among the numerical forecast models and ensembles makes for a tough task in deciding where, when, and if this potentially dangerous system makes landfall. The ECMWF group stalls the storm over the Bahamas before a westward lurch into the Gulf of Mexico. At this time, I am cautiously following the GFS panels with a move from NC to NY between October 7-9.

Very intriguing solutions and the points I made will be at playas we get closer- this is going to be a fun one. I bet all tv mets side with climo and say OTS - they did the same with Sandy even though we had a frickin mega block over Greenland - they were riding the GFS until about 36 hours before.

All I can say is this is very exciting if you're a weenie.

amugs wrote:Very intriguing solutions and the points I made will be at playas we get closer- this is going to be a fun one. I bet all tv mets side with climo and say OTS - they did the same with Sandy even though we had a frickin mega block over Greenland - they were riding the GFS until about 36 hours before.

All I can say is this is very exciting if you're a weenie.

You said it Brother!!

Euro still insistent on a southern and weaker track relative to GFS

Those ensembles show quite a few recurves west now than before. Main black line shows late OTS, but who knows.