HURRICANE MATTHEW

amugs wrote:And the blocking came back stronger which kept him locked into the coast.
this is like my son sleeping I swear - the roller coaster - blanket on, off fitted sheet and then boom the bed looks like a pile of straw come sunrise - could it be the same?

Anyway winds will easily be hcane force in this scenario and this would be terrible for the NJ Coast and into LI and CT shores. 16 hours plus of trop force winds and huge surf - saying possible 40' seas when he reves up - MADONNEE!!

GFS is

LOL to the pic, not the run. Ya entire metro area and even way inland would be in big trouble on that run.

Notice the trend on the GFS over the last 48hr in the Atlantic regarding ridging.  Could be a big piece to the puzzle as the system gains latitude

sroc4 wrote:Notice the trend on the GFS over the last 48hr in the Atlantic regarding ridging.  Could be a big piece to the puzzle as the system gains latitude

what are the chances this far out that ridging holds and a track like this happens. If it did exactly this we are roughly within 7 days. Im.not too good with this map does it show the ridge nudging ever so further west?

sroc4 wrote:Notice the trend on the GFS over the last 48hr in the Atlantic regarding ridging.  Could be a big piece to the puzzle as the system gains latitude

That's the point I was making this morning. The ridge is trending stronger each run which in turn pushes Matthew closer to the coast. Let's see if the EURO starts to do the same.

Didn't mugs say the solar weather was going to break down the ridge, is that not happening now. That BTW is the first time I ever heard that.

GEFS doesnt look as good as 6z based off the mean. Have to see members.

it's official we have Hurricane Matthew now

Oh wow way ahead of schedule. This is getting interesting. Love tracking these beasts.

We now officially have Hurricane Matthew!!!

So gfs is the only one showing a hit while cmc ots,gefs not good either but it's a long way aways

GEFS not good in what sense? A hit or a miss can u post I'm mobile.

skinsfan1177 wrote:So gfs is the only one showing a hit while cmc ots,gefs not good either but it's a long way aways

well we still have to see the elusive euro...

Matthew has also sped up to 17mph. 993mb much deeper than even the gfs initialized. Tonight I hear we get special recon data called g iv or something like that. Read it on storm2k. They gaga over tropics but I dunno how knowledgable they are. Kinda argumentative lol

jmanley32 wrote:Didn't mugs say the solar weather was going to break down the ridge, is that not happening now. That BTW is the first time I ever heard that.

Not the WAR but the High latitude block over SE CAN and the North Atlantic 50/50 low from this cut off we have now. That is what I meant - I also stated that IF the WAR builds west and explodes/deepens becomes stronger that could cause him to impact the EC.  Also, we have to see how the trough over the Pains interacts - it needs to be deep to help pull my boy back.

And yes Solar has and will be a major player on our patterns. 2009-11 low solar hence strong winter Block. Why do yuo think we had such a strong vortex last year that even the Great Thor could not break until March which is the seasonal change/transition atmospherically.

i will say this IF the GFS is right with this then the EURO needs to be taken out back and given a beat down then overhaul.

Lol mugs ur so funny. Love all ur posts. Alot typos but ehh lol. Euro may b partly right with the intensity I hear on 12z tomorrow morning it's already 979mb. If we have gfs track and euro intensity they can both get some cRedit not to mention cause one hell of a storm.

Hr 120 euro starts an east movement. Ugg no agreement. Wasn't really expecting it but still.

Wait hr 144 jumped nnw

Euro faster by 24 hrs same position 12z 144 hrs as 12z 168hr. Uesterday.

Euro huge shift west from yesterday's 12z wow. Headed toward fl or southern us in bahamas at 168.

Wow I'm mobile and can't post but huge change in lr euro 192 hrs several hundred miles nw of 12z yesterday

Euro at hour 192 Much further west!!!

Did I hear a echo lol just messing nutley. Good grief 939mb and falling if this turns more north it may be time to put up the real concern flag.

nutleyblizzard wrote:Euro at hour 192 Much further west!!!

and north from 12z yesterday coming up in time. Like mugs said gfs may have been right!

Hr 216 nearing Carolinas but did abrupt ne turn. Still way faster than yesterday's 12z still had it in bahamas. Coming in line with gfs.

Wow 240 much closer though a miss. It must found a escape but it moved more in like with gfs. Getting interesting def. Wonder what frank is thinking. Prolly won't chime in till we see if gfs and euro continue to do this.

If we get a GFS speed and track and EURO strength then HOLY SHT we will get obliterated - HAHAHAHA!! Still so much time - look the WAR is being shown stronger but the ULL is stronger too - we wont know this feature till Monday at best when it comes ashore.

Comparison - Levi Thank you

West and faster

Hr 240 OTS. Definite trend towards the GFS and much stronger. My interest and concern for this storm has increased.