HURRICANE MATTHEW

If we get a GFS speed and track and EURO strength then HOLY SHT we will get obliterated - HAHAHAHA!! Still so much time - look the WAR is being shown stronger but the ULL is stronger too - we wont know this feature till Monday at best when it comes ashore.

Comparison - Levi Thank you

West and faster

Hr 240 OTS. Definite trend towards the GFS and much stronger. My interest and concern for this storm has increased.

Hey I believed in gfs all along. It had too much support from itself run after run. That said we still got a week or so b4 he will be moving in and we will find out the fate of this storm. At least it's not 16 days. The old runs of euro would been that long maybe longer. Nutley u think frank may sound the alarm this weekend if this continues. His banner has held the treat all week and it has increased as u also stated.

Matthew is getting media attention now. Imagine the chaos if the ec threat continues. Oy

jmanley32 wrote:Hey I believed in gfs all along. It had too much support from itself run after run. That said we still got a week or so b4 he will be moving in and we will find out the fate of this storm. At least it's not 16 days. The old runs of euro would been that long maybe longer. Nutley u think frank may sound the alarm this weekend if this continues. His banner has held the treat all week and it has increased as u also stated.

I think Frank and most forecasters will wait till Matthew emerges into the Bahamas before sounding any alarms. Got to give it a few more days. Upper air pattern is complex and ever evolving.

jmanley32 wrote:Matthew is getting media attention now. Imagine the chaos if the ec threat continues. Oy

Interesting day so far regarding that. Some pro METS I follow are saying the GEFS are trending OTS now and the operational is a west outlier. And now Euro is OTS too? No one knows anything and won't for days.

Nice central core blowup this afternoon. Matthew is getting stronger!!!

Right no alarms to be made yet our way. The upper air pattern changes constantly. A lot of players in the field and they are always changing.

Okayy lol I didn't need the whole forum to answer. Probably a smart move on their part. Accuweather is probably the most hyping as usual. Matthew getting stronger earlier may or may not be a concern, as has been said the turn will be the time to start really seeing where this goes. A ways off but def not as far away as it has been with each day we will know a little more, well right now we do not know much more than the GFS and Euro moved into somewhat of a agreement, but as stated above OTS could be the answer or as I have thought all along GFS has this down, or at least close.

I wonder if 5pm full update is pushed up faster in time due to the models like euro moving faster.  Also someone needs to change title of the thread to hurricane. Interested to see Euro ensembles, gonna be complete in a little while on Wxbell.

models coming in agreement now that Matthew will head out to sea. Cmc euro and ukie gefs. If anyone wants to believe the GFS operational do so at your own peril

skinsfan1177 wrote:Right no alarms to be made yet our way. The upper air pattern changes constantly. A lot of players in the field and they are always changing.

Nobody knows where Matthew ultimately ends up, but I firmly believe we will have a CAT 4 or 5 storm at some point. At the very least this weather forum has finally woke up after months of boredom.

Did you guys see how close matthew was to a capture though before going OTS, Why is the ridge on the GFS and not so much the Euro. Disagreement on that is a big deal.

I should add things could change nothing is written in stone at this point but the trends are not good if you want the landfallgin Hurricane along the east coast

algae888 wrote: models coming in agreement now that Matthew will head out to sea. Cmc euro and ukie gefs. If anyone wants to believe the GFS operational do so at your own peril

My peril? Fine I will not put my nuts in the basket for any model then because we really still do not know, a few runs is not a trend, that has been said here before especially this far out.

algae888 wrote:I should add things could change nothing is written in stone at this point but the trends are not good if you want the landfallgin Hurricane along the east coast

I respect your insights but I have heard just as many saying the opposite on other tropical forums etc, maybe they are wishcasting I dunno, we will see.

jmanley32 wrote:Did you guys see how close matthew was to a capture though before going OTS, Why is the ridge on the GFS and not so much the Euro.  Disagreement on that is a big deal.

Jman that's a neutral to slightly positive tilted trough on the GFS it would push Matthew out to sea. The trough needs to be negative to pull him back. all the guidance today has the trough lifting North into Canada, weakening or staying positive. Can this change absolutely but the trends were not good today 4 landfall on East Coast hurricane

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote: models coming in agreement now that Matthew will head out to sea. Cmc euro and ukie gefs. If anyone wants to believe the GFS operational do so at your own peril

My peril? Fine I will not put my nuts in the basket for any model then because we really still do not know, a few runs is not a trend, that has been said here before especially this far out.

When I say peril I mean the time emotions and energy invested in tracking this storm. More than likely it will be a big let-down it usually is post 7 day operational runs in all seasons. I know this very well ive been there many times.

True Al

algae888 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Did you guys see how close matthew was to a capture though before going OTS, Why is the ridge on the GFS and not so much the Euro.  Disagreement on that is a big deal.

Jman that's a neutral to slightly positive tilted trough on the GFS it would push Matthew out to sea. The trough needs to be negative to pull him back. all the guidance today has the trough lifting North into Canada, weakening or staying positive. Can this change absolutely but the trends were not good today 4 landfall on East Coast hurricane

your right, goes to show u do not listen to non-pros got this from another forum. I lurk you guys are the only ones I talk to and a chat that is full of a lot of BS.

algae888 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Did you guys see how close matthew was to a capture though before going OTS, Why is the ridge on the GFS and not so much the Euro.  Disagreement on that is a big deal.

Jman that's a neutral to slightly positive tilted trough on the GFS it would push Matthew out to sea. The trough needs to be negative to pull him back. all the guidance today has the trough lifting North into Canada, weakening or staying positive. Can this change absolutely but the trends were not good today 4 landfall on East Coast hurricane

This looks more netral to neg to me Al.  And honestly right now the long term track right now is more dependent on the happenings of the deep layer trough currently in the east and the ridging complex to the N of the system and in the Atlantic than the approaching trough.  The euro has actually trended more favorable since yetserday in that regards.  The DLT is actually further N and east just SE of maine vs off the NC coast yetserday at 12z because the Atlantic ridge is fighting back.  The system is also located further west today vs yesterday and is faster in gaining latitutde.  Likely because of the increase in intensity of Matt today vs where it had it by this time today yesterday.  In addition The trough in the west is actually deeper than yesterday at 12z but maybe a bit faster.  IMO there are trends on both GFS and Euro that still has me very concerned with an EC landfall. Im not calling anything right now because it could all trend 500miles one way or the other still.

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Did you guys see how close matthew was to a capture though before going OTS, Why is the ridge on the GFS and not so much the Euro.  Disagreement on that is a big deal.

Jman that's a neutral to slightly positive tilted trough on the GFS it would push Matthew out to sea. The trough needs to be negative to pull him back. all the guidance today has the trough lifting North into Canada, weakening or staying positive. Can this change absolutely but the trends were not good today 4 landfall on East Coast hurricane

your right, goes to show u do not listen to non-pros got this from another forum.  I lurk you guys are the only ones I talk to and a chat that is full of a lot of BS.

I am going to advise again to not set anything in stone. Pattern evolution is still occurring, as we have already seen in the past 24 hours or so. These solutions may not exist in another 24 hours as pieces adjust past day 5.

algae888 wrote: models coming in agreement now that Matthew will head out to sea. Cmc euro and ukie gefs. If anyone wants to believe the GFS operational do so at your own peril

I agree. OTS is the most likely scenario although not guaranteed this far out. I bet the 18z GFS backs away from a land falling hurricane.

Wow impressive given he is moving through shear, is intensifying despite.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/html5-vis-short.html

Ensembles are still west of Operationals.

sroc4 wrote:Ensembles are still west of Operationals.  

so does that tell us anything? Msybe euro go even more west. If it does it will make landfall in fl or se if similar track to 12z but more west. When do u think u will start to become more certain or is that even too hard to tell now?