HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

jmanley32 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Now it looked like to me with the latest gfs run when it got to our latitude of the jersey coast to be disorganized somewhat. I guess the interaction with land down in N.C. could it regain strength back up this way.

It could especially with a capture or phase.

Thought so Jman. So on that run did it phase? Also didn't the Euro last run had it more West.

Oh right let me post Euro, yes it scrapes outer banks and is much closer to us.

Also I going to mention this the jersey coast in ocean county is real bad shape just from this weekend on shore flow and winds at 40mph the ocean was hitting the dunes.

If the Euro is right we got 10 days still plus to track this darn thing, I really hope it doesnt stall like it shows off the carolinas.

I think it was nutley who also mentioned it looked like if this went past 240 it would get a capture.

Versus 12z Euro, which is also a heck of a lot faster than last nights 00z.

I can't see this thing taking 10 days to get up here

Go Matthew! Look at how far west he is getting, he is nearing the 4th dot towards 75W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/html5-rb-short.html

jmanley32 wrote:Go Matthew! Look at how far west he is getting, he is nearing the 4th dot towards 75W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/html5-rb-short.html

Getting closer

euro control, close and strong!

pressure has risen to 947mb, 8am still 150mph winds. same speed nw 5mph.

Recon just found a WNW movement. Looks at about 74.5W . Closer to the GFS.

skinsfan1177 wrote:Also I going to mention this the jersey coast in ocean county is real bad shape just from this weekend on shore flow and winds at 40mph the ocean was hitting the dunes.

skins that is terrible...I hope this storm gets settled on a track soon so that those that need to prepare have time...

jmanley32 wrote:euro control, close and strong!

Going away for 2 days. When I get back and check in I want to see this picture 150 miles west and I'll be giddy. And before you all get angry YES I live on LI on the coast and I understand what this could do to areas that were devestated by Sandy. But I love weather and this would be memorable to say the least.

Snow88 wrote:Recon just found a WNW  movement. Looks at about 74.5W . Closer to the GFS.

Matthew's just clearing past western tip of Haiti now.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Also I going to mention this the jersey coast in ocean county is real bad shape just from this weekend on shore flow and winds at 40mph the ocean was hitting the dunes.

skins that is terrible...I hope this storm gets settled on a track soon so that those that need to prepare have time...

Yeah I hope we get enough time to get people prepared.

Frank_Wx wrote:

Ha Ha. I thought this mornings developments would get you excited.

Can someone post the wind and rain maps

I actually have an honest question, and for our board leaders, it's mostly directed at you: Are you taking the off-hour runs (06/18z) seriously, or are you purely relaying your analysis? Not just the recent runs like last night and yesterday afternoon, but in general. Just curious lol

12z Hurricane Models


Closer to the coast

rb924119 wrote:I actually have an honest question, and for our board leaders, it's mostly directed at you: Are you taking the off-hour runs (06/18z) seriously, or are you purely relaying your analysis? Not just the recent runs like last night and yesterday afternoon, but in general. Just curious lol

Yes, I take them seriously. The 06z GFS nailed Boxing Day 2010.

Snow88 wrote:12z Hurricane Models


Closer to the coast

The closer Matthew gets to Florida, the higher the chance he makes it up the coast into our area. Not only does the WAR expand toward the coast, but he's in closer proximity with the trough. The thing is, we actually don't need a capture with the trough. He can come up the coast just based off the position of the WAR and High over New England.

if Matthew does come up the coast, how strong do you think he will be by NYC?

Looking at the latest image of the NOAA floater loop, to my eyes it looks like Matthew is taking a western jog.

Matthew is always in a forward motion on the GFS. He may slow down but he's not stalling at all. The euro stalls him which gives time for the upper air pattern to turn unfavorable for an EC landfall by the time he resumes forward motion. The only way the EURO shows landfall is if a secondary trough enters the country and comes to capture him. Something has to give soon. The timing on both these models are vastly different.

I too take it seriously...sometimes. In this situation 6z went right back to what was consistently being depicted for 3 to 4 straight days on the GFS. So despite the last 12 Z and 0Z I think my current observations and the way I see the main players setting up I'm still on the fence about out to see versus East Coast landfall with again leaning towards an East Coast landfall my only by a small margin for now