HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Matthew is always in a forward motion on the GFS. He may slow down but he's not stalling at all. The euro stalls him which gives time for the upper air pattern to turn unfavorable for an EC landfall by the time he resumes forward motion. The only way the EURO shows landfall is if a secondary trough enters the country and comes to capture him. Something has to give soon. The timing on both these models are vastly different.

I too take it seriously...sometimes. In this situation 6z went right back to what was consistently being depicted for 3 to 4 straight days on the GFS. So despite the last 12 Z and 0Z I think my current observations and the way I see the main players setting up I'm still on the fence about out to see versus East Coast landfall with again leaning towards an East Coast landfall my only by a small margin for now

snowlover 12345 wrote:if Matthew does come up the coast, how strong do you think he will be by NYC?

Hmmm, tough to say still but anywhere from category 1 to a 2 IMO. Not sure he remains category 3 status. But let's see if he even gets here first!

nutleyblizzard wrote:Looking at the latest image of the NOAA floater loop, to my eyes it looks like Matthew is taking a western jog.

Yup, he's going to reach 75L today. This means Matthew will have higher odds of hitting the EC. If he stayed east of 75L, good chance he stayed OTS. He may still stay OTS but odds are increased of landfall. Let's see...

Frank_Wx wrote:

Snow88 wrote:12z Hurricane Models


Closer to the coast

The closer Matthew gets to Florida, the higher the chance he makes it up the coast into our area. Not only does the WAR expand toward the coast, but he's in closer proximity with the trough. The thing is, we actually don't need a capture with the trough. He can come up the coast just based off the position of the WAR and High over New England.

so now that it looks fairly likely he gets to pr passes 75w wpuld u say that the chances of the threat to our area have increased or decreased? And who would thpugh wnw movement wow.

Nvm u answered my question in post to Nutley I was typing when that came in

Frank ur get a bunch of new members with this thread aren't u glad I suggested we start track tropics

Hmmm, ok. I was just wondering. Do you remember how far out the 06z got the blizzard? I just don't trust them as much beyond the short term because they don't take in any actual data and instead use the six-hour forecast from the previous run as initialization, which makes me fearful that the geometric progression of the decay is increased.

So, I generally follow Steve Dimartino on Twitter and he's saying that NYC and Philly won't be affected. What is he seeing that we aren't? Or is he being cautious because of what happened with Hermine?

About to pass the magic number, looks to have sped up too.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/html5-rb-short.html

obsessedwithweather wrote:So, I generally follow Steve Dimartino on Twitter and he's saying that NYC and Philly won't be affected. What is he seeing that we aren't? Or is he being cautious because of what happened with Hermine?

everyone is going to have their own thoughts on this until we have a really set in stone track wich we won't have for a while bit still.

.....
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl-p&region=14L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016100206&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=70

NJ you missed one frame, landfall on carolinas, now we are getting that senario, my guess is this isnt a recurve senario but just right up the coast, and as frank said possibly cat 1 or 2 effects, staying a cat 3 will be tough but not impossible. Def cat 3 maybe 4 on gfdl.

jmanley32 wrote:Frank ur get a bunch of new members with this thread aren't u glad I suggested we start track tropics

New member here! Not because of this thread though. I've been lurking for a year or two. Finally figured I would dive in. Won't add much science unfortunately. I will likely just sit back and have a question every once in a while.

And while I certainly can understand Frank's sentiments re: the destruction of Fenway Park, as a baseball history fanatic, I would not condone such an action by Mother Nature.

jmanley32 wrote:About to pass the magic number, looks to have sped up too.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/html5-rb-short.html

Weird i refreshed the sattelite and it was way west of earlier, now its back east, glitch in the sattelite? Or am I bugging lol still ways to go to 75W.

rb924119 wrote:Hmmm, ok. I was just wondering. Do you remember how far out the 06z got the blizzard? I just don't trust them as much beyond the short term because they don't take in any actual data and instead use the six-hour forecast from the previous run as initialization, which makes me fearful that the geometric progression of the decay is increased.

5 hours.

obsessedwithweather wrote:So, I generally follow Steve Dimartino on Twitter and he's saying that NYC and Philly won't be affected. What is he seeing that we aren't? Or is he being cautious because of what happened with Hermine?

To be clear, no one here is suggesting Matthew will make landfall in our area. I know sroc (Scott) says he's leaning to an east coast landfall but that could be anywhere from Florida to Maine. I don't think any forecaster should be making definitive statements, whether they say out to sea or landfall. I truly feel not many know how Matthew will track. Models are struggling and tropical cyclones tend to have a mind of their own. Do I think the odds are better for an EC landfall since he seems to be moving more west than north this morning? Yes. But I am not confident on an EC landfall nor am I confident he stays out to sea. Until I see a semblance of agreement on guidance I remain cautious.

rb924119 wrote:Hmmm, ok. I was just wondering. Do you remember how far out the 06z got the blizzard? I just don't trust them as much beyond the short term because they don't take in any actual data and instead use the six-hour forecast from the previous run as initialization, which makes me fearful that the geometric progression of the decay is increased.

It's not that  we're taking an "off run" seriously or not, we are  trying to find some sort of trend with the models. Sadly this is not the case with this powerhouse of a storm. I recall three times that the models have "trended" to an OTS solution, only to come back west again. This makes me and a lot of other people very nervous on this board. What do I think will happen? I haven't got a clue. Can Matthew enter the Bahamas and then get shunted OTS? Sure. But my excitement and fear is starting to build if the other scenario were to occur.

Welcome aboard, Bob!! Every member adds something, even if questions. Chances are if you have a question, somebody else probably has it too, so they generate discussion. It's a win-win!

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Hmmm, ok. I was just wondering. Do you remember how far out the 06z got the blizzard? I just don't trust them as much beyond the short term because they don't take in any actual data and instead use the six-hour forecast from the previous run as initialization, which makes me fearful that the geometric progression of the decay is increased.

5 hours.

obsessedwithweather wrote:So, I generally follow Steve Dimartino on Twitter and he's saying that NYC and Philly won't be affected. What is he seeing that we aren't? Or is he being cautious because of what happened with Hermine?

To be clear, no one here is suggesting Matthew will make landfall in our area. I know sroc (Scott) says he's leaning to an east coast landfall but that could be anywhere from Florida to Maine. I don't think any forecaster should be making definitive statements, whether they say out to sea or landfall. I truly feel not many know how Matthew will track. Models are struggling and tropical cyclones tend to have a mind of their own. Do I think the odds are better for an EC landfall since he seems to be moving more west than north this morning? Yes. But I am not confident on an EC landfall nor am I confident he stays out to sea. Until I see a semblance of agreement on guidance I remain cautious.

Well hopefully we get consensus in the next day or two, if this is going to threaten or actually make landfall in area (not saying it will) theres going to be needed several days for preparations.

jmanley32 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:About to pass the magic number, looks to have sped up too.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/html5-rb-short.html

Weird i refreshed the sattelite and it was way west of earlier, now its back east, glitch in the sattelite?  Or am I bugging lol still ways to go to 75W.

He's definitely moving more west than north this morning. When / if he slows down, likely means he's about to turn north.

hey guys quick question...how do we see the Dominican Republic  faring with Mathew? (Particularly Puerto Plata area) I guess the more west it heads the better for them?

Five hours lol ok, thanks Frank. Back to the main topic ahaha

weatherwatchermom wrote:hey guys quick question...how do we see the Dominican Republic  faring with Mathew? (Particularly Puerto Plata area) I guess the more west it heads the better for them?

Since Matthew is a fairly compact system, the DR should fair pretty well. They will see some rain from the outer bands, but winds should be on the lighter end. Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba then eventually Bahamas are the islands set to feel this wrath.

rb924119 wrote:Five hours lol ok, thanks Frank. Back to the main topic ahaha

Frank That big blob of convection to to E is still there Never saw that ever before

Frank_Wx wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:hey guys quick question...how do we see the Dominican Republic  faring with Mathew? (Particularly Puerto Plata area) I guess the more west it heads the better for them?

Since Matthew is a fairly compact system, the DR should fair pretty well. They will see some rain from the outer bands, but winds should be on the lighter end. Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba then eventually Bahamas are the islands set to feel this wrath.

thanks was not sure about the size.. (did you ever make it to the gym yest?)

oldtimer wrote:Frank  That big blob of convection to to E is still there  Never saw that ever before

That is Martha. Matthew's side piece.

It's an area of convergence due to the downsloping winds off South America and the easterly trades. Promoting deep convection.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:hey guys quick question...how do we see the Dominican Republic  faring with Mathew? (Particularly Puerto Plata area) I guess the more west it heads the better for them?

Since Matthew is a fairly compact system, the DR should fair pretty well. They will see some rain from the outer bands, but winds should be on the lighter end. Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba then eventually Bahamas are the islands set to feel this wrath.

thanks was not sure about the size.. (did you ever make it to the gym yest?)

Of course!

Yes indeed as iot had it going into the GOM oh wait then stalled over the bahamas for 3-4 days and then went towards Bermuda - I can't remember which one.

Great work on here guys - very busy yesterday with things but kept looking on mobile. The windshield wiper somewhat effect and waffling with models.

Give JMAN a blend of the GFS track about 50 more west than 6Z run and Euro intensity and he'll call it a decade. Just my opinion here based upon latest runs - trough digs deep and captures my boy. USA USA USA!!
Lots of time.
From Rayno
GFS digs deep  like AMerican know how                          Euro like a european meh - let me have smoke while this digs!!