HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

If GFS is right with timing, which I am beginning to doubt, then the trough needs to speed up by 12 hours

skinsfan1177 wrote:Now it's sounding like the Euro may have the best idea bc gfs can't nail down the timing.

Yes. It is still kind of early to make that conclusion, but that's what my gut is telling me right now. EURO has been impressively consistent while the GFS has not.

12z CMC is way OTS. Maybe a late capture for northern NE. Who knows

Frank_Wx wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Now it's sounding like the Euro may have the best idea bc gfs can't nail down the timing.

Yes. It is still kind of early to make that conclusion, but that's what my gut is telling me right now. EURO has been impressively consistent while the GFS has not.

Wait I thought we had said the GFS was being pretty consistent, now the Euro is consistent, it was spitting out wild solutions all over the place too. And it has been further west each run. I am just confused now, just gonna watch and wait is all we can do, wow 6 hrs ago things were looking more likely now their not. But that could change after euro lol

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Now it's sounding like the Euro may have the best idea bc gfs can't nail down the timing.

Yes. It is still kind of early to make that conclusion, but that's what my gut is telling me right now. EURO has been impressively consistent while the GFS has not.

Wait I thought we had said the GFS was being pretty consistent, now the Euro is consistent, it was spitting out wild solutions all over the place too.  And it has been further west each run. I am just confused now, just gonna watch and wait is all we can do, wow 6 hrs ago things were looking more likely now their not. But that could change after euro lol

Consistent with timing, not Matthew itself. For example, the GFS has Matthew coming up the coast Friday of next week. The EURO has him in central Bahamas still. Both of them are following the same track, but one is faster than the other. That is what's key! People need to realize both these models have similar trajectories until Matthew gets to the Bahamas, but one is faster (GFS) than the other (EURO) and that means EVERYTHING for this forecast.

Those Northerly winds are no joke even if the storm is OTS on 12z. With that high building in that gradient is intense.

Hey Frank - long time lurker but first time poster... I have a question - if the Euro is correct in slowing Matthew couldn't that mean that he could miss the trough?

12z Ukie hits Florida.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144

njwx7 wrote:Hey Frank - long time lurker but first time poster... I have a question - if the Euro is correct in slowing Matthew couldn't that mean that he could miss the trough?

He would definitely miss the trough. BUT, could there be a secondary trough on the heels of that trough? If Matthew slows down as much as the EURO shows, it's not out of the realm to think there could be another trough some models aren't even showing yet. But most likely, if EURO is right he'll stay offshore.

Snow88 wrote:12z Ukie hits Florida.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144

This model is normally consistent with the EURO. Not with this storm though. We have a long way to go.

The way I see this is, we are now in the stage of watching the upper level features from the West. It seems like the upper level energy that will ultimately steer this storm past cape H, is still over the Pacific Ocean! Am I correct?

GEFS way more east compared to 6z. More flip flopping.

And then there's Mr Bastardi calling the UKIE 12z of a FL impact plausible, saying that model nailed Hermine.

So yeah. We don't have a clue anymore than yesterday where Matthew & Martha are headed.

Copied from another board, not sure if its credible:

Before anyone starts crying over what happens with the rest of the run, the initialization of the ECMWF thought that the convective blob to the east was the dominant center....

Radz wrote:Copied from another board, not sure if its credible:

Before anyone starts crying over what happens with the rest of the run, the initialization of the ECMWF thought that the convective blob to the east was the dominant center....

Wondrous.

This is a concern RB brought up yesterday.

EURO is getting nice and deep again off the Southeast coast. Wonder how low it can go......

LOOK AT HIM.....

I feel like can hear crickets chirping, it's so quiet on here ahaha

It might get louder once people see where its longer range is headed with Matthew........

rb924119 wrote:It might get louder once people see where its longer range is headed with Matthew........

Ahhh, yeah. My Storm App just updated a Euro model path UP the coast?? After it does a loop off the Carolinas?

Honestly it's all just crazy. Crazy I say

rb924119 wrote:It might get louder once people see where its longer range is headed with Matthew........

What? Is the Euro moving West again? With the newfound confidence in it due to its getting the speed and size mostly correct, I guess that is a good sign for a possible skirting of the coast? The roller coaster continues...but I don't want to get off!!

Here is the EURO valid next Friday morning. Notice the trough in the upper Midwest. Very broad and progressive. The flow over the Pacific is still very fast. Since the trough won't dig, Matthew is left to rot in the SW Atlantic. 

Here's the EURO valid next Sunday morning. Notice the trough in the upper Midwest is gone and replaced with some ridging in the west. If there was another trough I would be concerned, but alas there's not and Matthew should remain offshore. Of course, that can change but we should be ok for now. 

sroc4 wrote:Honestly it's all just crazy. Crazy I say

It really is Scott. I'm still standing firm on my initial thoughts because there is still way too much uncertainty in the modeling to sway me otherwise.

Damn +EPO/-PNA. If that's the winter pattern I'm shutting this board down.

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:

rb924119 wrote:It might get louder once people see where its longer range is headed with Matthew........

What? Is the Euro moving West again? With the newfound confidence in it due to its getting the speed and size mostly correct, I guess that is a good sign for a possible skirting of the coast? The roller coaster continues...but I don't want to get off!!

Well, it doesn't allow it out to sea, that's for sure haha It actually lets it get close enough to the mainland US so that it can partially interact with a shortwave trough skirting across the northern States. If you extrapolate the run beyond 240 hours, it might show enough of am interaction to swing it into northern New England or Nova Scotia. That's purely speculation, though. The interesting evolution continues.