Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

by **Dunnzoo** Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:27 am

From 11 am update:

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 74.6 West. Matthew is
drifting toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward
the north tonight

by **Dunnzoo** Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:30 am

Frank_Wx wrote:11am update

Off of Florida Friday morning, 06z GFS has it here on Saturday, hmmmmm.

by **weatherwatchermom** Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:45 am

gfs starting?

by **weatherwatchermom** Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:46 am

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-76.15,23.26,1591/loc=-71.762,25.482

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:49 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-76.15,23.26,1591/loc=-71.762,25.482

Awesome! And yes, GFS started. It is slower than 06z. Every GFS run seems to be slower. I wonder if the EURO is right with the timing then...

by **weatherwatchermom** Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:53 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-76.15,23.26,1591/loc=-71.762,25.482

Awesome! And yes, GFS started. It is slower than 06z. Every GFS run seems to be slower. I wonder if the EURO is right with the timing then...

Tx.

..I am trying to not sit in front of my computer all day...decorating for fall in between runs...and I love to leave null school up on my screen...to watch the storms....or just a wind pattern..it needs soothing music to go along with it...

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:53 am

The GFS is still struggling with the ULL over our area. On the 06z run, the ULL was out of the picture by late Monday. On the 12z run, the ULL is still near the Mid Atlantic valid 12z Wednesday. That is a huge difference. Heights along the coast pretty dampened on the 12z run because of it. But, we've seen cases where the ULL may not matter if the trough-ridge anomalies are stronger. We'll see if this run shows that again or if the ULL hinders the track up the coast.

by **Joe Snow** Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:57 am

Frank_Wx wrote:It looks like Matthew is going to loop again. We'll probably see a turn to the north late today. Once he turns north, it will be key to see whether he goes NW or due north.

For the last few seconds it looked like Martha tried to develop an eye........

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:59 am

What would be bizarre is that if the GFS shows another hit here, it would have done so even with a wanky handling of the ULL. That signals to me Matthew has many avenues he can come up the coast.

by kaos00723 Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:01 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Awesome! And yes, GFS started. It is slower than 06z. Every GFS run seems to be slower. I wonder if the EURO is right with the timing then...

FWIW Bernie Rayno and Joe Bastardi have been saying from the very beginning the GFS is too fast. The Euro has had a much better handle on the atmospheric dynamics and track of the storm from the start.

GFS is way, way off.

by **Joe Snow** Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:03 pm

Seems to follow the Islands in the Bahamas taking out each one wow

by **weatherwatchermom** Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:03 pm

sroc4 wrote:Not surprisingly models have cont to waffle overnight. Models will cont to waffle some until at least into tomorrow which has been prev stated. Even then an addition 48-72 hrs may be needed to pin it down.

Remember since its naming several days ago it was always going to evolve in stages. Stage one involved its interactions with shear and trade winds as it entered the E & C Caribbean and just how far N/S and/or W it would get. So far with the exception of the rapid development it has moved pretty much on par with what was expected when we were evaluating it several days ago.

But overnight we have entered phase two of Mr Matthews evolution. We have now clearly made the turn, and the current movement is in a NW direction. Here is the latest satellite loops:

Before I move on I want you to look at this next still frame. Notice that the center of the system is nearly due south of the eastern edge of Haiti. So unless this system makes a sharp turn due N and or NE like NOW, then the eastern edge of the current NHC cone forecast is out.

But I DO NOT think the system turns now, but rather will cont on its NW trajectory for at least most if not all of today. Despite the NHC forecast cone taking Jamaca just out of it I think the east coast is still in play for a direct landfall. At least as of this morning. Here is why I think this.

Lets look at the still frame first then the WV loop to see it in real time. Take note of the ridge. It appears to be large and in charge. Notice on the loop the western flank cont to push west. You can see the edge of the clouds and convection being pushed back throughout the loop. You can also see how the steering flow cont to bring the system NW towards the weakness which I have drawn in for you.

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Now the key to phase two and to potentially phase three of the final track along the EC vs OTS is going to be how far west but more importantly how strong will the trough in the GOM influence Matthew as it approaches the Greater Antilles and exits into the Bahamas. There are still differences in this between models so again anything beyond this latitude on Models is still uncertain. I expect models to cont varying in their solns for at least 24-48hrs before really starting to hone in on the final soln. For this reason I will hold off in any analysis beyond what the models show N of the Bahams and SE coast for now. These next 2days of observations should be telling for the east coast. I will say for now, gun to head, I am leaning towards some kind of direct east coast impact, but confidence is 55%/45% impact/no impact.

Joe Snow...take a look at the second NOA pic from this morning...look at the little white dot in Martha.. I was going to ask it that meant anything, but did not want to sound silly...

by **jmanley32** Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:04 pm

God that means we are at least 10 days away from being even close to his, I guess I can get my trip in next weekend and still be here for the storm if it does come up the coast.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:04 pm

kaos00723 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Awesome! And yes, GFS started. It is slower than 06z. Every GFS run seems to be slower. I wonder if the EURO is right with the timing then...

FWIW Bernie Rayno and Joe Bastardi have been saying from the very beginning the GFS is too fast. The Euro has had a much better handle on the atmospheric dynamics and track of the storm from the start.

GFS is way, way off.

Yea, beginning to think that. If GFS keeps slowing down and EURO ends up correct with timing, the upper air pattern will become too unfavorable for Matthew to track toward Florida and eventually up the coast.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:05 pm

Despite the negatives, amazingly, Matthew is follwing the same track as 06z to this point but it's 6 hours slower.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:09 pm

So, it's actually in the same spot as last night's 00z GFS run. However, the 12z GFS has a stronger WAR and better trough than the 00z GFS. Interesting.

by **Joe Snow** Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:11 pm

Joe Snow...take a look at the second NOA pic from this morning...look at the little white dot in Martha.. I was going to ask it that meant anything, but did not want to sound silly...

You can see in the satellite an indent in the clouds spinning for a brief second. It would be crazy if Martha split, a divorce if you will:D . What would they actually call it? Matthew A and Matthew B?

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:13 pm

Valid 12z FRI, the 00z GFS had a positively tilted trough with elongated vorticity. The 12z GFS has a neutral to slightly negative look to it with better consolidation of energy at the base. Clear to me the 06z GFS was a blip. Too fast and west.

by **weatherwatchermom** Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:13 pm

frank that other disturbance that is showing up in NHC 5 day will that have any affect on Matthew?

by **jmanley32** Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:16 pm

This looks like its gonna get booted, sigh this storm is driving me nuts, and to think its go hang around for 10 plus days making it nearly a 20 day storm!

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:18 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:frank that other disturbance that is showing up in NHC 5 day will that have any affect on Matthew?

I do not believe so. Not even the EURO brings it into the picture.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:20 pm

To be honest, the GFS is spitting our drastic run to run changes each run. I am beginning to have a bit more faith in the EURO camp as it's gotten the timing down to this point correctly. IF the EURO ends up correct, that means the trough and ULL won't be much of a factor cause they will clear through the area by the time Matthew gets to the Bahamas. What we'll have to watch for is if the EURO ends up seeing a secondary trough that could take this into the coast. If not, Matthew is likely to stay offshore.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:21 pm

Here is a neat image. Look how the ULL is trapped under the ridge. Matthew is going to track toward the ULL because it senses a weakness in the ridge.

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 18 Gfs_z500_vort_namer_26

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 18 Gfs_z500_vort_namer_26

by **Dunnzoo** Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:23 pm

Starts heading NE at hour 144 after brushing the outerbanks...

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 18 Gfs_z510

by **skinsfan1177** Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:26 pm

Now it's sounding like the Euro may have the best idea bc gfs can't nail down the timing.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:26 pm

If GFS is right with timing, which I am beginning to doubt, then the trough needs to speed up by 12 hours

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 18 Gfs_z500_vort_neus_28

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 18 Gfs_z500_vort_neus_28

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:27 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Now it's sounding like the Euro may have the best idea bc gfs can't nail down the timing.

Yes. It is still kind of early to make that conclusion, but that's what my gut is telling me right now. EURO has been impressively consistent while the GFS has not.

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