Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:47 am

Atlantic ridge is stronger this run.

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:50 am

Through hr 66, coming in a little slower and west, ridge and trough look a little stronger, looks like someone is going to get hit hard this run

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:53 am

Atlantic ridge is really flexing its muscles this run. Its pushing Matthew closer to the coast.

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:58 am

Way west now at hr 90, ridge really pushing this close to the Fla coast

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:59 am

Appears to start the more north turn at hr 96, really not much room for an escape east on this run

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:02 pm

Heading north for SC/NC at hour 102

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:05 pm

Still heading due north for perhaps SC at hour 108

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:06 pm

There's nowhere to go but up the coast. That ridge means business! Looking at a doozy of a run!

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:07 pm

Just off the SC coast at 114 heading NNE, ridge starting to break down a little, but trough coming

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:09 pm

Appears to just about have a landfall at hr 120 at SC/NC border!

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:09 pm

Wow, just checked into GFS!! 934 mb into Carolinas, this go slam everyone, trends are back to a threat, and more so than before with more models other than the Euro.

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:11 pm

Oh wow, hr 126 getting over land in NC, trough is just about here, bad for everyone on this run, not going to be pretty

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:11 pm

Jesus christ. Cat 4/5 hurricane slams into NC/SC border. Starting to feel effects of trough.

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:15 pm

Hr 132... second landfall at OBX!!!

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:18 pm

Its a deluge of rain and winds are getting very close now. We see def TS force.

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:19 pm

Storm really weakens after going over land, at hr 144 even hi-res is 979 mb, not the greatest phase either, still lots of rain and wind

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:19 pm

3rd cape cod landfall.

by **sabamfa** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:19 pm

If this were to impact our area, do we have any idea as to when that would be? I'm looking for thoughts on Philly as well as Morris County, NJ. Thanks.

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:21 pm

Looks like Sat approach, sunday, but we still have euro which wants to take it ots, into next week. I am no longer buying the euro sorry euro lovers but it just isn't holding any ground all other models are showing close to coast if not a landfall. anyone else agree?

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:23 pm

CMC also further west again from 0z. The strength of the Atlantic Ridge has been the big difference the past few model runs. Pretty important considering this change has happened since the more frequent balloon launches.

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:24 pm

Another thing to note if it hit obx and weakens it a bit it may just be rain and wind. Less of an impact with storm surge

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:24 pm

12z CMC also approaching SC at hr 90. Oh boy!!

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:32 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Another thing to note if it hit obx and weakens it a bit it may just be rain and wind. Less of an impact with storm surge

True but it could also gain intenser winds if a phase happened, and increased rainfall, gfs shows 3-5.

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:35 pm

CMC has landfall in NC, brings it right up the coast, 2nd landfall on Long Island

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:38 pm

can someone post some maps? please Smile

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:41 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:CMC has landfall in NC, brings it right up the coast, 2nd landfall on Long Island

What site are you using, tt is stuck at 90 hrs.

by **Sanchize06** Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:42 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:CMC has landfall in NC, brings it right up the coast, 2nd landfall on Long Island
What site are you using, tt is stuck at 90 hrs.

Same site, should be out to 150 haha

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