December 2016 Observations & Discussions

sroc4 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:James!!!!!!

Hey, Doc, I think you can buy Jimmy's winter stock for 10 cents on the dollar right now!!!

Less than that.  tough week.  I'll take the NAM for that though.

LOL Both of you.

The cartoon is hysterical.

I've said it several times and I'll repeat it until I'm blue in the face.

I will take this December, so far with all of it's faults, the pattern of the storms being first and foremost among them, over the nightmare that was last December any day of the week.

Agree, CP, we in the HV have been having it good since that 4 1/2 inches right before Thanksgiving.Cold, constant snow events and this one coming maybe 3 to 6 inches.After that we will have maybe 1/2 as much snow as we did all last season!

The lows yesterday and today at CPK were 19 and 17, respectively. That makes for two sub-20 degree lows this December, which is more than the last five Decembers combined!

Wow, Mike, great stat there! It's been a while!!

26.6, 55%, 30.08 R

Clouds on the increase, snow on the way, I'm in the Euro, rb,Frank and Doc map of 5 inches or so.Loving this!!!

Math23x7 wrote:The lows yesterday and today at CPK were 19 and 17, respectively.  That makes for two sub-20 degree lows this December, which is more than the last five Decembers combined!

Wow that's really pathetic and a big indictment of the last 5 Decembers more than anything.

Through the 16th the reporting stations for Upton are all between 0.3 above and -1.6 below normal for the month, which pretty much means we've had a nice normal December so far.

I still say we end up above rather than below normal but I hope I'm wrong.

19 and very light snow, dry slot over me right now, how surprising.

thought Frank said it was going to be windy today, not even a breeze, are we still expecting high winds overnight into the morning, models look to still show 925mb winds reaching 60-70kts for about a 6-9 hr period. 12k nam shows gusts early morning to midday of 40-50kt gusts, maybe higher tip li and east.

Who remembers the "As December goes, so goes the winter" thread I put up several years ago? It was based on an observation that CP had noticed for years. I had put up that for 19 straight snow seasons from 1993-94 to 2011-12, if December had less than 3" of snow at CPK, it would get less than 20" from January to April. And if December had at least 3" of snow, it would get at least 20" from January to April. It was snapped in 2012-13 when CPK had 0.4" in December but 21" afterwards. It came back for 2013-14 but the past two winters did not follow it. (1.0" in December 2014 followed by 49.1" from January-March 2015 and a trace in December 2015 (stunning that actually snowed last December) and 32.8" January to March through 27.5" of it came from one storm).

Now, This December has had 3.2" at CPK (as of 9 AM). The last December to have at least 3" of snow followed by less than 20" the next four months was 1990-91. 7.2" fell in December from the 27th-28th snowstorm and 17.7" fell from January to April 1991. Here's to hoping the prognosticator doesn't bust on the snowy December side.

Here is the thread by the way: https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t139-as-december-goes-so-goes-the-winter

Math23x7 wrote:Who remembers the "As December goes, so goes the winter" thread I put up several years ago?  It was based on an observation that CP had noticed for years.  I had put up that for 19 straight snow seasons from 1993-94 to 2011-12, if December had less than 3" of snow at CPK, it would get less than 20" from January to April.  And if December had at least 3" of snow, it would get at least 20" from January to April.  It was snapped in 2012-13 when CPK had 0.4" in December but 21" afterwards.  It came back for 2013-14 but the past two winters did not follow it.  (1.0" in December 2014 followed by 49.1" from January-March 2015 and a trace in December 2015 (stunning that actually snowed last December) and 32.8" January to March through 27.5" of it came from one storm).  

Now, This December has had 3.2" at CPK (as of 9 AM).  The last December to have at least 3" of snow followed by less than 20" the next four months was 1990-91.  7.2" fell in December from the 27th-28th snowstorm and 17.7" fell from January to April 1991.  Here's to hoping the prognosticator doesn't bust on the snowy December side.

Here is the thread by the way: https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t139-as-december-goes-so-goes-the-winter

Actually the original one I put up differed a bit from what you posted later.

My take was anything 3.0 or less under performed and anything 6.0 or over over performed.

One of the main items was Central Park has not had a December with anywhere between 3.1-5.9 inches since 1984, which is one of the main oddities considering the December average that period is 4.8. We don't know what to make of a December in that range because it hasn't occurred in over 30 years. We'll see where this one ends.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Math23x7 wrote:Who remembers the "As December goes, so goes the winter" thread I put up several years ago?  It was based on an observation that CP had noticed for years.  I had put up that for 19 straight snow seasons from 1993-94 to 2011-12, if December had less than 3" of snow at CPK, it would get less than 20" from January to April.  And if December had at least 3" of snow, it would get at least 20" from January to April.  It was snapped in 2012-13 when CPK had 0.4" in December but 21" afterwards.  It came back for 2013-14 but the past two winters did not follow it.  (1.0" in December 2014 followed by 49.1" from January-March 2015 and a trace in December 2015 (stunning that actually snowed last December) and 32.8" January to March through 27.5" of it came from one storm).  

Now, This December has had 3.2" at CPK (as of 9 AM).  The last December to have at least 3" of snow followed by less than 20" the next four months was 1990-91.  7.2" fell in December from the 27th-28th snowstorm and 17.7" fell from January to April 1991.  Here's to hoping the prognosticator doesn't bust on the snowy December side.

Here is the thread by the way: https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t139-as-december-goes-so-goes-the-winter

Actually the original one I put up differed a bit from what you posted later.

My take was anything 3.0 or less under performed and anything 6.0 or over over performed.

One of the main items was Central Park has not had a December with anywhere between 3.1-5.9 inches since 1984, which is one of the main oddities considering the December average that period is 4.8. We don't know what to make of a December in that range because it hasn't occurred in over 30 years. We'll see where this one ends.

The key word is "based on" I did modify it slightly in the thread.

But to your point, what if mother nature goes against the long range teleconnections and gives us another few inches of snow by the end of the month? Then we will not get a 3.1 to 5.9 range for December. One can only hope...

So how much rain are we looking at tommorow? And when is it over and the winds too.

skinsfan1177 wrote:So how much rain are we looking at tommorow? And when is it over and the winds too.

Rain all day. Could change to snow at 7pm. Gusts to 40mph.

currently 35* and the fog rolled in...reminds me of that movie The Fog....freaks me out....

weatherwatchermom wrote:currently 35* and the fog rolled in...reminds me of that movie The Fog....freaks me out....

Just make sure the doors and windows are locked. Those things that come out of the fog are nasty.

After 5" of snow yesterday, currently 34.2* here... held on pretty well over night, hoping to retain a little snow pack after the temp spike and heavy rain later and then we get the big freeze over tonight...

35.5, 93%, 29.44F

Light rain, .04 in the bucket.Think chances for a White Christmas up here will be very low with this heavy rain and warm temps today and temps around 40 for the highs at the end of the week.Only hope is a chngeover to snow quicker today and a deep freeze .

Wow went to bed temps where in 30s woke up 53° with dense fog and the wind is picking up

OK, skins, I'm still at 35.4 so when other reports come in we will see where the warm air is.

50* here.
up 5 degree in the last hr.
snow is mostly gone

NENJ is still in the 30's, 36° here now

57* winds sw @15 mph all the snow is gone and so is the thick fog...Cp...I did check doors and and did not let dogs out again after the fog rolled in...lol...

A balmy 53 * yuck most of my snow is gone esp on grassy area . at least snow. Pack is still holding good

Its a 10 -15 degree drop just crossing the GWB into NJ.

Still in the mid 30's here.. 36*.

Time for the shorts here currently 61°

Warm air working in now. Up to 43.3

.06 in the bucket.Half the snow is gone now.