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December 2016 Observations & Discussions

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December 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Empty Re: December 2016 Observations & Discussions

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Dec 13, 2016 4:46 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Today's model continue showing a snow, ice, and rain threat for Saturday. At this time, I am thinking 2 to 4 inches of snow will accumulation for much of the area Saturday morning (beginning around 4am). It will change to a mix or freezing rain later Saturday morning then a plain rain by Saurday afternoon. The timing is still uncertain and exactly how much snow falls before the changeover is also iffy. GFS shows 3 to 6 inches while EURO is less bullish.

Either way, a storm is coming on Saturday. Clouds and rain will linger into all day Sunday. A miserable weekend ahead.


Still much better than last December, at least IMO.
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Post by aiannone Tue Dec 13, 2016 8:48 pm

2" here so far in Binghamton and still snowing moderatley. Been a decent winter up here so far. Brings the total to about 25" so far.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:39 pm

I believe I mentioned this already, but there may be snow flying Thursday morning as the PV swings across New England. Visibility could be reduced to very low levels if the snow is whipping around intensely within the squall. Please keep this in mind as you commute Thursday morning. It could get rough.

December 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 5 5850be793ac27

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:41 pm

Also, these squalls are likely to last through the day Thursday. On and off.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:45 pm

NW winds on Thursday look pretty gusty too. Gusts could surpass 30mph, especially along the coast. Coupled with the wind chills in the single digits and the snow squalls, it's going to be quite a day.

December 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Gfs_mslp_wind_neus_8

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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:56 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:NW winds on Thursday look pretty gusty too. Gusts could surpass 30mph, especially along the coast. Coupled with the wind chills in the single digits and the snow squalls, it's going to be quite a day.

December 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Gfs_mslp_wind_neus_8
Looks like a homemade bread and big pot of soup day!!
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:07 pm

Indeed. Scroll has been updated!

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:28 pm

Winds might be quite a bit higher than you expected Frank, just issues for my area and pts east (It looks  like Fri the 925mb winds are quite high too pushing 50-70mph? We do not often see, high wind watches.

/O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0008.161215T1400Z-161215T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.A.0002.161215T2300Z-161216T1100Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
320 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY. A
HIGH WIND WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH DURING
 THE DAY, AND 60 MPH AT NIGHT.

* TIMING...HIGHEST WIND POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN TREES AND POWER
 LINES. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. TRAVEL WILL BE
 DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:30 pm

I will be driving back from eastern CT tomorrow morning/midday, when will the snow squalls be effecting the 95 corridor, or should I leave tonight to be safe?
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:30 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Winds might be quite a bit higher than you expected Frank, just issues for my area and pts east (It looks  like Fri the 925mb winds are quite high too pushing 50-70mph?

/O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0008.161215T1400Z-161215T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.A.0002.161215T2300Z-161216T1100Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
320 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY. A
HIGH WIND WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH DURING
 THE DAY, AND 60 MPH AT NIGHT.

* TIMING...HIGHEST WIND POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN TREES AND POWER
 LINES. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. TRAVEL WILL BE
 DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

WOW, was just about to post this Jman! Taunton went wild too with their afternoon advisories. We're in for a bumpy ride.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:34 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Winds might be quite a bit higher than you expected Frank, just issues for my area and pts east (It looks  like Fri the 925mb winds are quite high too pushing 50-70mph?

/O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0008.161215T1400Z-161215T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.A.0002.161215T2300Z-161216T1100Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
320 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY. A
HIGH WIND WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH DURING
 THE DAY, AND 60 MPH AT NIGHT.

* TIMING...HIGHEST WIND POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN TREES AND POWER
 LINES. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. TRAVEL WILL BE
 DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

WOW, was just about to post this Jman! Taunton went wild too with their afternoon advisories. We're in for a bumpy ride.

Even with the advisories and watch these wind events as we know can bust easily, but with such a cold airmass coming in screeching I can see this verifying. That means tomorrow and into Fri morning we could see low single digit windchills, and if we hit or top 60mph gusts could have some tree damage. at least there are no leaves on the trees.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:36 pm

Not often NWS says this "WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE" See in above advisory
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:41 pm

I know not our area but dayumm...

/O.NEW.KBOX.HW.A.0006.161215T2300Z-161216T0900Z/
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...
VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...BLOCK ISLAND
258 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATION...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

* WINDS...WEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 8 PM THURSDAY AND
4 AM FRIDAY.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Dec 14, 2016 4:30 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I know not our area but dayumm...

/O.NEW.KBOX.HW.A.0006.161215T2300Z-161216T0900Z/
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...
VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...BLOCK ISLAND
258 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATION...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

* WINDS...WEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 8 PM THURSDAY AND
 4 AM FRIDAY.

Jman do you have wind info for my area
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:40 pm

I think winds will be stronger on Sunday. I think tomorrow there will be gusts in the 35-45mph range. Nothing too special. Sunday they could gust over 50mph. 925mb winds are shown to be between 60 and 70kts. At the surface that is 55 to 65 mph winds. This is due to a front coming through the area. Southerly winds ahead of it, strong north westerlies behind it.

December 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Wind


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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:57 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I think winds will be stronger on Sunday. I think tomorrow there will be gusts in the 35-45mph range. Nothing too special. Sunday they could gust over 50mph. 925mb winds are shown to be between 60 and 70kts. At the surface that is 55 to 65 mph winds. This is due to a front coming through the area. Southerly winds ahead of it, strong north westerlies behind it.

December 2016 Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Wind


I actually agree, had no idea there was even a wind threat tomorrow, NWS is bullish, the models have been show very high gusts for sunday, those 925mb winds are sustained so are we talking 40+ sustained?!.  We will see what happens.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:42 pm

So when does this front come through tommorrow with possible snow squalls
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Dec 14, 2016 8:14 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:So when does this front come through tommorrow with possible snow squalls

Tomorrow is not really a front. More like upper level energy swinging through the area from the Polar Vortex. Gusty winds and scattered snow squalls throughout the entire day.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Dec 14, 2016 8:32 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:So when does this front come through tommorrow with possible snow squalls

Tomorrow is not really a front. More like upper level energy swinging through the area from the Polar Vortex. Gusty winds and scattered snow squalls throughout the entire day.

Thanks frank
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Post by dkodgis Thu Dec 15, 2016 4:24 am

At 4 am doing the dog walk thing, 25 degrees and windy, about 20 mph with some gusts up to 30 so far. Brrrrrr! Surprisingly the wind also has seemed to die down to nothing here and there. I woke up hearing the wind chimes on the back deck and they are pretty heavy ones and rarely sound except for windy conditions. They are nice to hear.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 15, 2016 4:43 am

High wind warning now in effect for nyc immediate area and east 12hr period 6pm today to 6am fri. Wind advisory all day today. We will see if the nws or frank win out. Looking at Sr wind maps I still do not see where they are getting 60 mph gusts tonight. I think most def sun will b a warning too and could push well above 60 mph posdibly.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Dec 15, 2016 5:09 am

Just looked outside got a dusting of snow overnight
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Post by frank 638 Thu Dec 15, 2016 5:20 am

Getting windy out winds are out of the west at 18 gusting at 31mph .

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Dec 15, 2016 6:34 am

Currently27.2* winds at 23mph
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Post by Dtone Thu Dec 15, 2016 6:52 am

Wind woke me up at 4 something in the morning. Was really howling then.
29*

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