Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

skinsfan1177 wrote:In all serious does a stronger storm on Monday help us better with a 50/50 low for next storm.

Possibly skins. Models aren't showing this just yet, but energy for the first storm is only today and tonight coming ashore in the west.

sroc4 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:In all serious does a stronger storm on Monday help us better with a 50/50 low for next storm.

Possibly skins. Models aren't showing this just yet, but energy for the first storm is only today and tonight coming ashore in the west.

Thank you Sroc

31* feel temp of 23 with winds about 10-14 mph give or take.

TWC seems to like the current set up from last night, snow to all rain for majority of the area.

docstox12 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Also can anyone answer couldn't we benefit of the storm is stronger and acts as 50-50 for the next event?

Unfortunately us "losers" down here on the coastal plain have been and will continue to think just this way Skins as freakin storm after storm Just Keeps on Cuttin"!  I may have to right a country song about this early winter pattern.

"My wife done left me,
pickup truck just died,
cutters keep a comin',
gonna sit  and cry!"

"Bringing back memories of last December,
A time in my life, I don't want to remember,
There was no cold air, and I had no money,
Just memories of my ex wife, the playboy bunny"

Although hilarious, I moved the above convo to Banter:

http://lakewood732weather.blogspot.com/2016/12/sunday-night-storm.html

12z gfs and Nam show start after midnight with a short window of cold before changing to rain Monday.

Not looking good for NYC south

12Z GFS



CMC



YUGE EURO RUN this afternoon 12Z

this storm is going to help create a 50-50 low which should help to create at least some blocking and it will also create a trough that keeps us in a colder pattern for a longer period of time. Its actually the best thing that could happen, the stronger the storm, the better.

NWS Upton...2-3 for NNJ less going south and east. Also .5"-1" rain.... sorry don't have time for maps etc!

The GFS still has that vort over North Dakota phasing into the lead PAC energy. This leads me to believe that is a real vort and not "phantom" Most likaly, it's going to come down to interaction. Too much phasing will develop a surface low and shoot it into the Lakes. Less interaction will keep the energy moving along the zonal flow east into our area with the baroclinic line to our S&E, keeping cold air intact.

That is what the Canadian model is doing. Too bad the EURO made a step toward the GFS last night. I have a feeling that will end up being the outcome. A coating to maybe 1" of snow before a changeover to rain. Those N&W of NYC will see more snow. We'll see what happens with the EURO later on.

Out to 72 euro coming in a little better than 00z. Flatter overall with less interaction

HOLY POOP EURO SAVES THE DAY - much flatter and holds serves up a paste job sorry coast yuor toast N& W FTW!!

Hours 57 - 75 are very intersting N & W as per SV maps - if we could that 32* line to press further south then Franks maps from last night are BAZINGAA BABy.

CP and DOc ore a jackpot as well as RAy and Snow in EPA

Euro brings the 2-3" line down to the immediate coast leaving LI out. N NYC in; S NYC out

So here's the breakdown All 4 major models have low pressure  over the Eastern Great Lakes by 7 a.m. Monday.
Gfs 1000mb, ukie 1005, euro 1009 and cmc 1010. It's plain to see the weaker systems have more snow for the New York City area. Hoping we can get on the board with this system with more to follow. I'm already having more fun than last year

Euro looks nothing like the GFS. Good test for the new Euro

Local 12 Hudson Valley weather has maybe 2 inches with a changeover to rain up here by 4:30 AM.Don't know aht they are looking at,LOL.

amugs wrote:

Long Island stays white like snow the entire time Mugs...is that good

amugs wrote:HOLY POOP EURO SAVES THE DAY - much flatter and holds serves up a paste job sorry coast yuor toast N& W FTW!!

Hours 57 - 75 are very intersting N & W as per SV maps  - if we could that 32* line to press further south then Franks maps from last night are BAZINGAA BABy.

CP and DOc ore a jackpot as well as RAy and Snow in EPA

As much as it pains me to say this, I am still very hesitant to think that very much snow is going to fall south of the NY/PA state borders. I'll reassess tomorrow after the 12z runs, but I think this ends up as a "warm" system for most as of this point. I'm liking the American suite of models right now, honestly, and yes the NAM is included in that (oh Lord, give me strength and forgive my trespasses for buying into the NAM lmfao)

no one gets more than 1-3" on this based on the above run screw this storm. This years' motto........... (hopefully i'm wrong) ON TO THE NEXT ONE!!!

Nws discounting the nam all together although the 4k nam has some snow Sunday afternoon for most of the area. It's a very tricky setup and it's still pretty early in the season but setups like this any delay in the changeover then many areas could see their first accumulating snow. Even though the high is not in the ideal position I like these over running events with Front end thumps of snow. This winter is progressing fine with snow first for Inland areas working its way towards the coast. Throw in a mixed event snow to rain like we have this Sunday and Monday and this is very typical winter and December very different from the last four or five years

algae888 wrote:Nws discounting the nam all together although the 4k nam has some snow Sunday afternoon for most of the area. It's a very tricky setup and it's still pretty early in the season but setups like this any delay in the changeover then many areas could see their first accumulating snow. Even though the high is not in the ideal position I like these over running events with Front end  thumps of snow. This winter is progressing fine with snow first for Inland areas working its way towards the coast. Throw in a mixed event snow to rain like we have this Sunday and Monday and this is very typical winter and December very different from the last four or five years

Could you post that discussion? I wonder why they're completely throwing it away? I can understand the QPF forecast, but the synoptic development I actually agree with; the GFS too, to be honest.

syosnow94 wrote:no one gets more than 1-3" on this based on the above run  screw this storm.  This years' motto........... (hopefully i'm wrong) ON TO THE NEXT ONE!!!

Hi.