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Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations

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Post by RJB8525 Fri Dec 09, 2016 9:31 am

31* feel temp of 23 with winds about 10-14 mph give or take.

TWC seems to like the current set up from last night, snow to all rain for majority of the area.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Dec 09, 2016 9:35 am

@docstox12 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Also can anyone answer couldn't we benefit of the storm is stronger and acts as 50-50 for the next event?


Unfortunately us "losers" down here on the coastal plain have been and will continue to think just this way Skins as freakin storm after storm Just Keeps on Cuttin"!  I may have to right a country song about this early winter pattern. Mad Evil or Very Mad

"My wife done left me,
pickup truck just died,
cutters keep a comin',
gonna sit  and cry!"

"Bringing back memories of last December,
A time in my life, I don't want to remember,
There was no cold air, and I had no money,
Just memories of my ex wife, the playboy bunny"
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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 09, 2016 9:41 am

Although hilarious, I moved the above convo to Banter:

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jake732 Fri Dec 09, 2016 10:51 am

http://lakewood732weather.blogspot.com/2016/12/sunday-night-storm.html
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Dec 09, 2016 11:31 am

12z gfs and Nam show start after midnight with a short window of cold before changing to rain Monday.

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Dec 09, 2016 11:51 am

Not looking good for NYC south
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 09, 2016 12:05 pm

12Z GFS

Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations - Page 3 12z.thumb.png.b7e765ca8c91cdfcab4ab0867b4e7b20

CMC

Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations - Page 3 Gem_asnow_neus_14

YUGE EURO RUN this afternoon 12Z

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Dec 09, 2016 12:08 pm

this storm is going to help create a 50-50 low which should help to create at least some blocking and it will also create a trough that keeps us in a colder pattern for a longer period of time. Its actually the best thing that could happen, the stronger the storm, the better.
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Dec 09, 2016 12:08 pm

NWS Upton...2-3 for NNJ less going south and east. Also .5"-1" rain.... sorry don't have time for maps etc!

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 09, 2016 12:39 pm

The GFS still has that vort over North Dakota phasing into the lead PAC energy. This leads me to believe that is a real vort and not "phantom" Most likaly, it's going to come down to interaction. Too much phasing will develop a surface low and shoot it into the Lakes. Less interaction will keep the energy moving along the zonal flow east into our area with the baroclinic line to our S&E, keeping cold air intact.

That is what the Canadian model is doing. Too bad the EURO made a step toward the GFS last night. I have a feeling that will end up being the outcome. A coating to maybe 1" of snow before a changeover to rain. Those N&W of NYC will see more snow. We'll see what happens with the EURO later on.

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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 09, 2016 1:11 pm

Out to 72 euro coming in a little better than 00z. Flatter overall with less interaction

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 09, 2016 1:18 pm

HOLY POOP EURO SAVES THE DAY - much flatter and holds serves up a paste job sorry coast yuor toast N& W FTW!!

Hours 57 - 75 are very intersting N & W as per SV maps - if we could that 32* line to press further south then Franks maps from last night are BAZINGAA BABy.

CP and DOc ore a jackpot as well as RAy and Snow in EPA


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 09, 2016 1:20 pm

Euro brings the 2-3" line down to the immediate coast leaving LI out. N NYC in; S NYC out

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 09, 2016 1:23 pm



Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations - Page 3 Ecmwf_27
Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations - Page 3 Ecmwf_28

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 09, 2016 2:13 pm

So here's the breakdown All 4 major models have low pressure  over the Eastern Great Lakes by 7 a.m. Monday.
Gfs 1000mb, ukie 1005, euro 1009 and cmc 1010. It's plain to see the weaker systems have more snow for the New York City area. Hoping we can get on the board with this system with more to follow. I'm already having more fun than last year
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 09, 2016 2:15 pm

Euro looks nothing like the GFS. Good test for the new Euro

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Post by snow247 Fri Dec 09, 2016 3:29 pm

Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations - Page 3 Img_5611

Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations - Page 3 Img_5612
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Post by docstox12 Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:24 pm

Local 12 Hudson Valley weather has maybe 2 inches with a changeover to rain up here by 4:30 AM.Don't know aht they are looking at,LOL.
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Post by amugs Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:52 pm

Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations - Page 3 Namconus_asnow_neus_fh72_trend.thumb.gif.5373e9e1d27ccd85f733bed62c56d910

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 09, 2016 5:04 pm

@amugs wrote:Sun-Mon 12/11-12/12 Discussions and Observations - Page 3 Namconus_asnow_neus_fh72_trend.thumb.gif.5373e9e1d27ccd85f733bed62c56d910

Long Island stays white like snow the entire time Mugs...is that good scratch geek

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 09, 2016 5:09 pm

@amugs wrote:HOLY POOP EURO SAVES THE DAY - much flatter and holds serves up a paste job sorry coast yuor toast N& W FTW!!

Hours 57 - 75 are very intersting N & W as per SV maps  - if we could that 32* line to press further south then Franks maps from last night are BAZINGAA BABy.

CP and DOc ore a jackpot as well as RAy and Snow in EPA


As much as it pains me to say this, I am still very hesitant to think that very much snow is going to fall south of the NY/PA state borders. I'll reassess tomorrow after the 12z runs, but I think this ends up as a "warm" system for most as of this point. I'm liking the American suite of models right now, honestly, and yes the NAM is included in that (oh Lord, give me strength and forgive my trespasses for buying into the NAM lmfao)


Last edited by rb924119 on Fri Dec 09, 2016 5:12 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Guest Fri Dec 09, 2016 5:10 pm

no one gets more than 1-3" on this based on the above run screw this storm. This years' motto........... (hopefully i'm wrong) ON TO THE NEXT ONE!!!

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Post by algae888 Fri Dec 09, 2016 5:18 pm

Nws discounting the nam all together although the 4k nam has some snow Sunday afternoon for most of the area. It's a very tricky setup and it's still pretty early in the season but setups like this any delay in the changeover then many areas could see their first accumulating snow. Even though the high is not in the ideal position I like these over running events with Front end thumps of snow. This winter is progressing fine with snow first for Inland areas working its way towards the coast. Throw in a mixed event snow to rain like we have this Sunday and Monday and this is very typical winter and December very different from the last four or five years
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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 09, 2016 5:26 pm

@algae888 wrote:Nws discounting the nam all together although the 4k nam has some snow Sunday afternoon for most of the area. It's a very tricky setup and it's still pretty early in the season but setups like this any delay in the changeover then many areas could see their first accumulating snow. Even though the high is not in the ideal position I like these over running events with Front end  thumps of snow. This winter is progressing fine with snow first for Inland areas working its way towards the coast. Throw in a mixed event snow to rain like we have this Sunday and Monday and this is very typical winter and December very different from the last four or five years

Could you post that discussion? I wonder why they're completely throwing it away? I can understand the QPF forecast, but the synoptic development I actually agree with; the GFS too, to be honest.

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Post by Quietace Fri Dec 09, 2016 5:45 pm

syosnow94 wrote:no one gets more than 1-3" on this based on the above run  screw this storm.  This years' motto........... (hopefully i'm wrong) ON TO THE NEXT ONE!!!
Hi.

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