Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

by **Math23x7** Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:26 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:ROIDZILLA !

I see that I (near the Queens/Nassau county border) am east of both the 0C 850 mb line and the 32F surface line. Would seem like rain to me. And what's crazy, I have plans to be with family out in Islip on Saturday, January 7th. Though judging by this map, it's a rain storm for LI...

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:30 pm

@Mike - don't look at temps. Just the signal itself is enough to get excited.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:31 pm

It's amazing to see how much upper energy potential there is in this time frame. The WPO/EPO ridges keeps trending stronger. The propagating MJO wave Doug and others have touched on may be the reason why models are trending stronger with the NAO ridge. Best run of the year for sure.

by **sroc4** Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:33 pm

Math23x7 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:ROIDZILLA !

I see that I (near the Queens/Nassau county border) am east of both the 0C 850 mb line and the 32F surface line. Would seem like rain to me. And what's crazy, I have plans to be with family out in Islip on Saturday, January 7th. Though judging by this map, it's a rain storm for LI...

That would not be a rain storm Mike. Pay not to position of those lines this far out.

by **frank 638** Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:38 pm

i hate to ask this will this be all snow for the coast and nyc or will we have a mixing mess crap to rain .i know its early and we have a week to monitor this storm but i am getting excited I WANT A RODZILLA FOR EVERYONE LOL

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:40 pm

Precipitation type will not be better understood until Monday or Tuesday next week.

by **sroc4** Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:41 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Precipitation type will not be better understood until Monday or Tuesday next week.

At least

by **sroc4** Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:43 pm

Hopefully we get a little appetizer with the first wave on Friday. Maybe a few inches compliments of WAA over top the boundary. Lots to track through nest week.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:57 pm

sroc4 wrote:Hopefully we get a little appetizer with the first wave on Friday. Maybe a few inches compliments of WAA over top the boundary. Lots to track through nest week.

I need to sleep 40 hours this weekend to prepare for the 150 hours I'll be awake next week.

by **nutleyblizzard** Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:59 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:It's amazing to see how much upper energy potential there is in this time frame. The WPO/EPO ridges keeps trending stronger. The propagating MJO wave Doug and others have touched on may be the reason why models are trending stronger with the NAO ridge. Best run of the year for sure.

I just don't trust these models this far out. Sure the 6th - 9th shows tons of potential, but that's all it is at this point. Don't want to be a debbie downer, but what concerns me is the NAO. On numerous occasions lately models have shown a strong signal for a negative NAO only to back off as we get closer in. Something to keep in mind. On the flip side if those two ridges get any stronger, we could really start to get some crazy snowmageddon solutions in the coming days. Until we get at least under 100 hours for this threat, I'm tempering any excitement.

by **amugs** Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:00 pm

WPO & EPO solidly Negative to the wave break LP that will pump thus area to roidville, LP off Baja that will pump WC PNA positive. COLD drain for AO to th east coats. SE ridge kept at bay by the EPO and N NAO pressing down on it setting a baclonic zone south of us for the storm to track to be very favorable. Lp in NE Can that pumps the NAO N.
Thus pattern may last well into late January not a short window imo. MJO in a phase but not fast into 1 from the latest runs. Great sign. Very exciting times comin up.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:06 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:It's amazing to see how much upper energy potential there is in this time frame. The WPO/EPO ridges keeps trending stronger. The propagating MJO wave Doug and others have touched on may be the reason why models are trending stronger with the NAO ridge. Best run of the year for sure.

I just don't trust these models this far out. Sure the 6th - 9th shows tons of potential, but that's all it is at this point. Don't want to be a debbie downer, but what concerns me is the NAO. On numerous occasions lately models have shown a strong signal for a negative NAO only to back off as we get closer in. Something to keep in mind. On the flip side if those two ridges get any stronger, we could really start to get some crazy snowmageddon solutions in the coming days. Until we get at least under 100 hours for this threat, I'm tempering any excitement.

NAO trended stronger today. Wave breaking event in the Atlantic.

by Guest Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:07 pm

Nuttley took the words right out of my mouth. I'm happy to hear about all the buzz and excitement going forward. HOWEVER until I see it I won't believe it. So far EVERY storm has cut and/or been warm. HOPEFULLY this changes next week, but I will not be suckered again. I will not get sucked into these snow threats until Wednesday AM at the earliest. Good luck to us. I'm hoping as much as the next guy but I choose to be a Debbie Downer. pale

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:07 pm

I always thought you don't want to be in the bullseye this far out theirs a lot of time and that my concern

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:08 pm

The EURO ENSEMBLES show one heck of a 50/50 Low too.

by **oldtimer** Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:12 pm

Oh wow!! Great stuff guys I am excited too mugs!!

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:14 pm

http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/user-images/5866bfd3d531d.png

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:26 pm

EPS are game

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 8 5866c21c0319b_controlslp12-30-1612z.png.afd0a233d76e3754b82fcc1115505b84

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:29 pm

Would be shocked if this didn't produce

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 8 Test8

by emokid51783 Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:32 pm

Frank-

Why would you be shocked?

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:40 pm

emokid51783 wrote:Frank-

Why would you be shocked?

We haven't seen a ridge that mighty in the northern Pacific (WPO/EPO domains) since 2013-2014. When you have positive height anonalies extending into the Arctic, it displaces the PV into southern Canada and brings with it all the Arctic air. Not to mention the upper level energy that could break off from its circular flow.

by **sroc4** Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:41 pm

emokid51783 wrote:Frank-

Why would you be shocked?

WEhen the upper level pattern feautures such anomalous ridging(orange colors) in both the N Pacific and Northern Atlantic at the same time and is in this close of an agreement on both major global models, Euro and GFS, its almost inevitable energy will meet somewhere along the coast.

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:53 pm

Oh wow, Trust in the Euro! This time anyways, could someone post the wxbell snow map? Just to see where the roidzilla snowfall is verbatim, I think we all understand this far out it will change many times but still fun to look at.

by **sroc4** Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:56 pm

For those of you who are hesitant to get too excited this is a smart move. We all should do the same. There are alot of REALLY positive things in the upper levels that "should" produce between the 7-9th, but there is absolutely enough time to have changes that lead to unwanted solns. That said I am about as pleased with the upper levels, forget the surface maps for now, as I can be for storm potential this far out.

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:57 pm

Wow in 24 hrs, the Euro goes from a 1001mb system over western NC to 978mb off cape cod, talk about bombogenesis! Thats only from TT though, I canceled my subscription to wxbell for financial reason,s so if anyone would be willing to share any snow maps as I said just for fun it would be cool but sroc you are right its 9 days away, so much can change but it sounds like the setup is pretty good at this pt.

by **sroc4** Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:59 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Oh wow, Trust in the Euro! This time anyways, could someone post the wxbell snow map? Just to see where the roidzilla snowfall is verbatim, I think we all understand this far out it will change many times but still fun to look at.

Check Banter

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:59 pm

sroc4 wrote:For those of you who are hesitant to get too excited this is a smart move. We all should do the same. There are alot of REALLY positive things in the upper levels that "should" produce between the 7-9th, but there is absolutely enough time to have changes that lead to unwanted solns. That said I am about as pleased with the upper levels, forget the surface maps for now, as I can be for storm potential this far out.

same

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