Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[amugs]

i'LL SAY IT ONE MORE TIME:
Take the stratosphere and soi and the grease truck along with all this - their is terrestrial (planetary) alignment configuration that will make February rock an dit i son course - unless in the next 10 days something goes awry. URANUS (no ones on this forum) is going to align at 60* with earths perigee and cause us to go into the freezer for February usually lasting about 20 - 25 days from my research after hearing Jim Witt talk about this. Time frame he said is late January through later February. His analog comparisons - and Jim dont take this literally, you will blow a gasket or two by doing so it is just as Scott said for comparison sakes:
Years of analog:
1917-18
1947-48
1977-78
1993-94
2014-15
Unusual to have this planetary pattern so close from recorded data.
He is calling for 8* BN for NYC & 8" AN in snowfall for NYC and the NYC metro, HV and Mid Atlantic Region.

We have a typical thaw incoming and then we reload.

Interesting tidbits and I do not know how this will play out but we have had high latitude volcanic activity. Joe D did a write about a week ago. The Alaskan aleutian chain have seen two volcanoes eruptions, considerable to a degree over teh past 4 week - spewing ash about 10K into the atmosphere. We would need that top go about 20K more to have a great effect on our weather and the upper winds to help blowing this our way. Watch this happens for March & April!!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

i'LL SAY IT ONE MORE TIME:
Take the stratosphere and soi and the grease truck along with all this - their is terrestrial (planetary) alignment configuration that will make February rock an dit i son course - unless in the next 10 days something goes awry. URANUS (no ones on this forum) is going to align at 60* with earths perigee and cause us to go into the freezer for February usually lasting about 20 - 25 days from my research after hearing Jim Witt talk about this. Time frame he said is late January through later February. His analog comparisons - and Jim dont take this literally, you will blow a gasket or two by doing so it is just as Scott said for comparison sakes:
Years of analog:
1917-18
1947-48
1977-78
1993-94
2014-15
Unusual to have this planetary pattern so close from recorded data.
He is calling for 8* BN for NYC & 8" AN in snowfall for NYC and the NYC metro, HV and Mid Atlantic Region.

We have a typical thaw incoming and then we reload.

Interesting tidbits and I do not know how this will play out  but we have had high latitude volcanic activity. Joe D did a write about a week ago. The Alaskan aleutian chain have seen two volcanoes eruptions, considerable to a degree over teh past 4 week - spewing ash  about 10K into the atmosphere. We would need that top go about 20K more to have a great effect on our weather and the upper winds to help blowing this our way. Watch this happens for March & April!!

I'd love a cold and snowy March because to me March is just another winter month, especially the first 3 weeks of March. Oh hell I'd love a cold and snowy May if we can get it, a cold and snowy June might be a little too much even for me (but certainly not for Snowman if he reads this), not to mention the planet wide turmoil that would cause, see the summer of 1816 in the northeast or was it 1815?, it has happened.

[sroc4]

i'LL SAY IT ONE MORE TIME:
Take the stratosphere and soi and the grease truck along with all this - their is terrestrial (planetary) alignment configuration that will make February rock an dit i son course - unless in the next 10 days something goes awry. URANUS (no ones on this forum) is going to align at 60* with earths perigee and cause us to go into the freezer for February usually lasting about 20 - 25 days from my research after hearing Jim Witt talk about this. Time frame he said is late January through later February. His analog comparisons - and Jim dont take this literally, you will blow a gasket or two by doing so it is just as Scott said for comparison sakes:
Years of analog:
1917-18
1947-48
1977-78
1993-94
2014-15
Unusual to have this planetary pattern so close from recorded data.
He is calling for 8* BN for NYC & 8" AN in snowfall for NYC and the NYC metro, HV and Mid Atlantic Region.

We have a typical thaw incoming and then we reload.

Interesting tidbits and I do not know how this will play out  but we have had high latitude volcanic activity. Joe D did a write about a week ago. The Alaskan aleutian chain have seen two volcanoes eruptions, considerable to a degree over teh past 4 week - spewing ash  about 10K into the atmosphere. We would need that top go about 20K more to have a great effect on our weather and the upper winds to help blowing this our way. Watch this happens for March & April!!

With all due respect with all this planetary aiglments theory Mugs but do you have any info or links on how these alignments affect the earth. I have no doubt that the heavenly bodys of our solar system tug and pull on each other, but in what way? I need to see the science before I buy into it

[algae888]

hearing euro weeklies look nice. eps also look good late in their run also..
here is a composite of what the weeklies look like jan 25th +... from poster on another board...

[algae888]

gefs in lala land. best look yet this winter....

[billg315]

I would expect we'll see it get cold around this time frame. We have a big warm up this week to near 60* and then primarily above normal temps (except Sat./Sun.) early next week. Unless this winter is a true torch (which it hasn't shown to be so far) we should be due for a pattern change to at least a brief period of below normal temps by the week of Jan. 23. How long it lasts is a bigger question and above my pay grade. I'll leave that to the experts here.

[skinsfan1177]

I would expect we'll see it get cold around this time frame. We have a big warm up this week to near 60* and then primarily above normal temps (except Sat./Sun.) early next week. Unless this winter is a true torch (which it hasn't shown to be so far) we should be due for a pattern change to at least a brief period of below normal temps by the week of Jan. 23. How long it lasts is a bigger question and above my pay grade. I'll leave that to the experts here.

I believe those 60s may bust imo with snowpack. The torch is 17-24. And then I think we will get back in the biz February will rock

[Isotherm]

There is no SSW or MMW in the upcoming 10 days. Far from it actually. EPV indicates enhanced poleward heat flux, but it will be insufficient / well below the necessary threshold to induce zonal wind reversal down to 60N/10hpa. There is lingering wave 1 forcing from the earlier attack and current wave 2 which is converging on the vortex, but all it achieves is a virtual energy balance on either side of the pole because the amplitudes are grossly insufficient. So the resultant is a more elongated 10hpa vortex by day 10-12. Its future orientation will continue to preclude protracted blocking in the NAM/NAO domains. I wouldn't anticipate much help from those indices for at least 2-3 weeks.

I think there is a bit of underestimation regarding the upcoming medium term warm period. The positive EPO surge and contemporaneous low geopotential height field will empty North America of cold air for at least 10 days. January temperature departures will probably be at least +2 for our area.

Now, beyond that time frame, I have alluded to the possibility of February's mean pattern having the best opportunity of all three months to diverge into a genuine winter pattern. If we are being honest here, there has been no genuine, protracted winter pattern lasting more than 4 or 5 days so far thia winter.

However - and I believe this is partially related to the rapidly decaying Nina - I am noticing an alteration in the walker cell orientation, likely beginning Jan 25th, which should initiate an upper divergence pattern more reflective of an El Nino in the tropical Pacific. The resultant alterations will induce lowering geopotential heights in the N PAC with an increase in atmospheric angular momentum by Day 20.

The tropospheric pattern should therefore evolve into one which promotes more ridging in the areas that have seen troughing thus far -- British Columbia, NW US. These changes will take several days to realize, but the warm pattern should be mostly complete by the last 3 or 4 days of January. My opinion on snowfall remains that same, namely that it is hostile for the coast through late month. A light accumulation is possible.

February has an increasing probability of actually finishing normal or even below normal temp wise in the Northeast due mostly to anticipated changes upstream. The question becomes, can we force a SSW in February? I think it will be difficult, but not impossible, this year due to background conditions. With that being said, I expect February will feature more transient neg NAO periods than winter thus far, due to rossby wave jet alteration in the NATL and changes w/ walker cells.

Overall, this is the most interested I have been in the winter pattern to date. The possibility exists for a sustained colder than normal regime in the Northeast for February. It should be Pacific driven with occasional Atlantic cooperation, and a low likelihood of SSW.

I still like 20 to 26" in NYC with slightly below normal NYC southward and near normal snow north of NYC. We shall see how we progress. My analogs indicated at least a 2 to 3 week period of cold. It looks like it may be February, similar to 73-74.

[Isotherm]

Scott, in response to your post on the last page. The wave 2 attack will be occurring in the D 5 to 10 period, but as noted, unfortunately it will be of insufficient amplitude to force a protracted zonal wind weakening. It will elongate but we will need future stronger attacks. I do think the vortex should be in a state closer to normal or slightly stronger than normal by late Jan, making it more susceptible. Further, if I am correct about the likely tropospheric pattern evolution, wave 1 will become a more influential player by late Jan with a Nino esque regime. This could make things interesting with a "chance" for SSW, in early February. My thought is it probably doesn't occur in meteorological winter this year, but best opportunity would be toward the second week of feb in my view.

[Armando Salvadore]

Interesting information Isotherm, so you're saying that this stratospheric wave attacks is more rather "noise" due to a reflection of the tropospheric pattern? I've noticed a wave 2 forecasted attack at 1hPa, but as you've said, it's not sufficient to down-well, but enough to cause for elongation. To add to this, the 12z GFS shows yet another wave breaking after the 21st, and it appears more NINO-esque with 6z GEFS showing heights across the hudson bay with a mean trough across the southeast, and lower heights south of Alaska and a +PNA look. +TNH/PNA look for the end of Janurary, so a change in the pacific seems likely, and the CFSv2 and i believe CANsips has been hinting at a change in 200 CHI as you've alluded too going into Feb. Now, to ask you this, do we see a progression of a coherent MJO wave eastward, or so we see enhanced convection into the IO?

[Frank_Wx]

Tom, great discussion. Mean zonal winds are forecasted to tank late January-early February. If this signal is real, then I actually do feel we could be on our way to a SSW but if it happens the changes at the Trop level probably won't hit us until middle of February.

[Frank_Wx]

MJO activity could lead to our wave 2.

[Frank_Wx]

MJO activity could lead to our wave 2.

Looks like Joe Bastardi agrees with me. Here is his take on the Strat. A friend of mine asked him about it via text:

Here is what is going on. I have said it a thousand times now. There is a major SOI rise that is kick starting the MJO, At first the reaction is toward warm, but the fall starts later this week. That is why you are seeing the MJO forecasted to fly into the cold phases. This is also the first major hit to the SOI that is about to lead to the return of el nino. Why Look at the Indian Ocean its cool relative to further east. This means pressures should rise across Australia in their fall and lower in the central Pacific I expect the SOI to hook nicely with the El Nino by June. But the first negative against the base state should start later this week

[Isotherm]

Thanks Frank. The problem is I have seen the GFS based guidance overforecast zonal wind reversals in the longer term. The ECWMF is much more reliable and indicates no such rapid weakening yet. Additionally, I like to see a more robust increase in wave 1 or 2 and much stronger poleward heat flux. I think the GFS is rushing this. Even though warming may be initiating in EA, the progression typically takds 3 to 4 weeks. Further, the QBO will be destructively interfering. Meaning there may be another near miss SSW like we have seen in recent years. I think for an official SSW, the best opportunity will be early Feb.

Armando - I do think there will be more coherent MJO progression in Feb. The chi z200 reversal, climatologically favored ENSO state, and walker cell shift, could make things more interesting. With that being said, there will still be a propensity to revert back to the Maritime continent LF forcing at times I think.

[frank 638]

Joe coffi was saying we might be heading into a blocking pattern starting sometime next week lasting into the first week of Feb what are ur thoughts about this

[Guest]

From Isotherm's post..


I still like 20 to 26" in NYC with slightly below normal NYC southward and near normal snow north of NYC. We shall see how we progress. My analogs indicated at least a 2 to 3 week period of cold. It looks like it may be February, similar to 73-74.

_________________
-Tom
Trained SKYWARN Spotter
My website: http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

I respect your knowledge and analysis, but I have a question. I live on the coast in the NYC region. (Long Island) Most of the Island is currently at 15-18" of snow for the season with several more inches possible this weekend which if comes to fruition will put many of us at 20" or more for the season. Yet you are forecasting only 20-26" for the NYC area and coast total even with all the optimistic talk about February? Doesn't add up to me!!

[Isotherm]

Keep in mind a couple of things. First, initially in my winter outlook, I expected NYC would likely be close to the cut off between near normal and below normal snowfall. Philly and EPA are well below average for the winter thus far snowfall wise. That range of 20 to 26" was for the immediate NYC stations specifically, which are closer to 10". For the parts of LI that are currently at 15 to 18", I would expect a near normal finish (possibly around 30").

One also must keep in mind that a pattern favorable for cold may not necessarily deliver significant snowfall. While Feb looks more conducive for cold, snowfall is always a wildcard and more prone to timing. We could go most of Feb with very little, and then achieve a 12 inch event near the end if the month. Just one of numerous possibilities. So just because snowfall totals aren't bad to date, I wouldn't extrapolate the current rate of snowfall frequency into the rest of winter.

[Isotherm]

Keep in mind a couple of things. First, initially in my winter outlook, I expected NYC would likely be close to the cut off between near normal and below normal snowfall. Philly and EPA are well below average for the winter thus far snowfall wise. That range of 20 to 26" was for the immediate NYC stations specifically, which are closer to 10". For the parts of LI that are currently at 15 to 18", I would expect a near normal finish (possibly around 30").

One also must keep in mind that a pattern favorable for cold may not necessarily deliver significant snowfall. While Feb looks more conducive for cold, snowfall is always a wildcard and more prone to timing. We could go most of Feb with very little, and then achieve a 12 inch event near the end if the month. Just one of numerous possibilities. So just because snowfall totals aren't bad to date, I wouldn't extrapolate the current rate of snowfall frequency into the rest of winter.

[Math23x7]

For the sake of the seasonal snowfall totals, we better cash in this weekend because the blowtorch happens starting next week.....

[sroc4]

For the sake of the seasonal snowfall totals, we better cash in this weekend because the blowtorch happens starting next week.....

Keep I mind Miley this is not a forecast. This is merely pointing out the probability of above or below normal. It says nothing regarding if it will be +1 or +10. I hate these maps.

[Isotherm]

Next week isn't just warm, it is an absolute furnace. 0c 850s are essentially near the Canadian border for a period. I expect several days at least of double digit positive departures with at least 5-6 days in the 50s probably, at our coldest climatological time of year.

What we see on the EPS D 10-15 is a classic technical neg NAO (much like the 97-98 winter), with no real blocking mechanism and warm temperatures underneath. The positive geopotential height action center must move further northeast in order to be effective. Depending upon stratospheric evolution, that may or may not happen.

[skinsfan1177]

Can someone explain what they are seeing at end of month into February with stratosphere and trough in East in layman terms please

[frank 638]

What does. This mean

[Frank_Wx]

Thanks Frank. The problem is I have seen the GFS based guidance overforecast zonal wind reversals in the longer term. The ECWMF is much more reliable and indicates no such rapid weakening yet. Additionally, I like to see a more robust increase in wave 1 or 2 and much stronger poleward heat flux. I think the GFS is rushing this. Even though warming may be initiating in EA, the progression typically takds 3 to 4 weeks. Further, the QBO will be destructively interfering. Meaning there may be another near miss SSW like we have seen in recent years. I think for an official SSW, the best opportunity will be early Feb.

Armando - I do think there will be more coherent MJO progression in Feb. The chi z200 reversal, climatologically favored ENSO state, and walker cell shift, could make things more interesting. With that being said, there will still be a propensity to revert back to the Maritime continent LF forcing at times I think.

I think if the ensembles are correct with showing an Aleutian trough the final days of January, it sets up a pretty good precursor pattern that should increase poleward heat flux. Some models are depicting a strong HP over Siberia in the coming weeks. I'm weary but remain cautiously optimistic that progged mean zonal wind reversal end of this month, potential wave 2 from MJO activity, and continued fading of La Nina will make our February pattern very interesting.

Joe coffi was saying we might be heading into a blocking pattern starting sometime next week lasting into the first week of Feb what are ur thoughts about this

Dont see that. It's going to warm up.

Can someone explain what they are seeing at end of month into February with stratosphere and trough in East in layman terms please

What does. This mean

See my post above. At the moment, I think February could deliver a fantastic 2 week wintry period with Godzilla potential. Might be too premature to say that, but like background signals I'm seeing.

[Frank_Wx]

Wow, check out this upper level jet extension taking shape in the Pacific over the next 7 days. Safe to say the drought in California will come to an end. The EPO/PNA will not be in our favor either.

Day 1



Day 3



Day 7



Day 8

[Frank_Wx]

Check out @nj_strong_wx's Tweet: https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx/status/818979773967925248?s=09

[billg315]

Wow, check out this upper level jet extension taking shape in the Pacific over the next 7 days. Safe to say the drought in California will come to an end. The EPO/PNA will not be in our favor either.

Day 1



Day 3



Day 7



Day 8

And as usual with California, if the droughts ending, they'll have mudslides and flooding. There seems to be no in between in that state.

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