Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[nutleyblizzard]

Wow, the euro and gfs ensembles look good. If there's a ridge in the west, something will pop with a transient -NAO in our favor.

Yep. With each ensuing run more and more ensembles show more hits than misses.

[jmanley32]

Wow, the euro and gfs ensembles look good. If there's a ridge in the west, something will pop with a transient -NAO in our favor.

Can you guys post the snow maps like sroc did, last map he posted had 10 good hits, are there more now? I am tempted to get wxbell back lol

[dsix85]

I just read the news to 20+ people at the dinner table and now am getting bombarded with questions lol. "How much for north shore of Long Island?" "Will we have mixing issues"? This board gets me into trouble lol

[jmanley32]

I just read the news to 20+ people at the dinner table and now am getting bombarded with questions lol. "How much for north shore of Long Island?" "Will we have mixing issues"? This board gets me into trouble lol

LOL, yeah I learned not to tell people until we are in the realm of actual media talking about it. Then at least I do not look crazy, cuz most do not understand looking at models etc and seeing stuff well before mets say anything.

[billg315]

Oh and Frank, if we have another El Niño later this year I don't even want to see the mood on this board come November, lol.

If it's a Modoki/West Based El Nino, we should be in good shape.  Remember 2009-10 was a west-based El Nino year and since you're in central NJ, I can tell you that you did well then.

We did ok in Central NJ, but as I recall it was really South Jersey that cashed in the most. I remember because I was living in South Jersey outside Philly up until mid-Feb. and we got a series of big storms there, a couple of which my friend in Central NJ didn't do as well with. Then right after I moved to Central NJ we got hit with a big storm. It was like I was bringing the snow with me. Anyway, I guess we'll have to see what kind of Nino it is. I just get pessimistic anytime I hear El Niño anymore. Lol

[emokid51783]

What are the odds 12+ verifies for Jersey City

[Frank_Wx]

18z GEFS Mean. Getting there...lots of good individual member hits.

[jmanley32]

18z GEFS Mean. Getting there...lots of good individual member hits.

So if this storm happens looks to be Sunday? We are supposed to have a visit from friends in NJ and just want to (when we get closer if its still a threat) warn that they may not be able to make it in.

[Frank_Wx]

Timing uncertain. There are two waves actually. That's why I have a few days in the scroll. Should become clearer by Tuesday.

[Frank_Wx]

EPS try to pop the ridge out west too. Imagine it amplifies enought to connect with the EPO ridge? Possible but unlikely. 

[rb924119]

EPS try to pop the ridge out west too. Imagine it amplifies enought to connect with the EPO ridge? Possible but unlikely. 

If that happened you'd even see me punch my ticket and board the hype train ahahaha that'd be AMAZING!!! Not gonna lie, I'd most likely shed tears of joy lmao

[rb924119]

EPS try to pop the ridge out west too. Imagine it amplifies enought to connect with the EPO ridge? Possible but unlikely. 

CHECK OUT TONIGHT'S 00z NAM!!! COULD IT BE POSSIBLE?!!!! NAM FOR THE WIN?!!!! Soooooooo much better look at H5, WOW!!! Too bad it's hour 84 lol be interesting to see if things start trending that way, though. Right now, I'm holding my ground until I see reason to change my thinking.

[emokid51783]

EPS try to pop the ridge out west too. Imagine it amplifies enought to connect with the EPO ridge? Possible but unlikely. 

What would that mean?

[jmanley32]

00z H5 has a huge piece of energy compared to the last few runs (I believe, still learning these non surface maps!

[jmanley32]

here it comes...

[jmanley32]

Is that trying to go negative, just a little too late? Surface map is not at same hour, but this looks good.

[nutleyblizzard]

Huge run incoming!!!

[jmanley32]

oh baby! temper the expectations but this is a great run for everyone.

[jmanley32]

Godzilla maybe Roidzilla!

[jmanley32]

Jeeze it snows all the way or 24 hrs for city on east!

[nutleyblizzard]

You beat me to it Jman. With a 1042 high to the north, can't wait to see snow maps.

[jmanley32]

You beat me to it Jman. With a 1042 high to the north, can't wait to see snow maps.

Give me a second and ill post it in banter, I think it still to far out to post in LR no?

[Armando Salvadore]

The run to run inconsistently is drastic and chaotic. The GFS itself has trended either weaker or stronger with the shortwave, however, it's noted that despite the chaos, models are "seeing" more of a western ridge. Frank and some others have alluded to this. With at least a ridge axis out west, this bodes well for some type of possibly digging, but it remains to be seen what happens between the polar and pacific branches of the jet stream. The threat(s) exist for next weekend and all is on the table. Exciting time period.

[skinsfan1177]

Gfs was a huge hit but I do temper expectations cmc and Euro are sheered out. We need to get other models in board with gfs

[Frank_Wx]

Wave 2 (January 8th-9th) has so much potential if it can separate itself from wave 1 (January 6th-7th). The closed vort ejects east and the ridge spike amplifies the trough.

[skinsfan1177]

Wave 2 (January 8th-9th)  has so much potential if it can separate itself from wave 1 (January 6th-7th). The closed vort ejects east and the ridge spike amplifies the trough.

Lots of Potential but gfs on its own right now.

[Frank_Wx]

Wave 2 (January 8th-9th)  has so much potential if it can separate itself from wave 1 (January 6th-7th). The closed vort ejects east and the ridge spike amplifies the trough.

Lots of Potential but gfs on its own right now.

Keep in mind the ensembles remain much more bullish than OP models. That is a red flag. EPS members have hits, as do some of these SREFS members.

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