Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[Frank_Wx]

Man we could be looking at some wicked rain storms over the next 10 days. A couple of models are advertising sub 990mb low's in the center of the country and tracking this way. Not surprising with how the Pacific pattern is taking shape.

[Armando Salvadore]

Indeed Frank, yea taking verbatim that EPV flux, it won't do much harm. However, this upcoming MJO wave structure appears that it's most likely will be coherent and have more amplitude. If that is the case, then what you mentioned may come to fruition. Certainly, it'll shoot poleward latent heat/WAF, which would also prevent it from strengthening over the polar. If we can manage and sustain a strong enough wave 2, maybe we see big implications for early Feb.

[Frank_Wx]

Here is your wave 2 on the EURO

[Frank_Wx]

Jesus

[Frank_Wx]

[Frank_Wx]

February Phase 8 MJO composite under ENSO-neutral conditions points to Pacific/Atlantic blocking. That would be exciting.

[frank 638]

This is good news frank as we head into late Jan into Feb I guess we can use little break till things starts fireing up

[Armando Salvadore]

Yes, here comes your firehose pacific jet and blowtorch Jan thaw. There goes our extensive snow cover too....




By the way, Frank, i assume you follow Anthony Masiello. He usually does those tweet chains, and he conducted some interesting research following up what a H5 +EPO did back in November, that set off a significant wave 1 displacement subsequently, which then induced an active early/mid December. Making connections to the future period we're interested in, it just adds more of a positive incentive to look forward too. I think we have a wild end of Jan/early Feb ahead of us, or at least intriguing one i should say.

[algae888]

totally different pattern upcoming both on eps and gfs . one that we haven't seen yet this winter. +pna and aluetian trough


trough comes east. fun times coming

[Isotherm]

Thus far, the incoming wave-2 as a consequence of the tropospheric precursor pattern will be insufficient in inducing a zonal reversal; however, it will depress the vortex into a more near normal state relative to the time of year. This will make it more susceptible to future attacks, with a slightly off-pole vortex displacement, the vortex may succumb under a more potent wave-1 convergence which should peak in the second week of February. I still maintain the pattern is generally too warm for a coastal snowstorm in late January, and it's pseudo -NAO blocking initially. The higher heights are a response from the deep GOAK vortex upstream, and potentially some downwelling via the Canadian stratospheric warming.

Until then, furnace ensues for the next couple weeks. January should finish +3 or greater. Not yet convinced we achieve protracted, severe blocking in the NAO/AO domains, but I do believe the pattern will improve in the Pacific coupled with some -NAO blocking in response to Pacific changes.

[skinsfan1177]

Isotherm not believing in a amazing february

[sroc4]

As expected this mornings SOI came in at -1.13, but the real deal begins this weekend and into next week. Lets see just how low against the base state we can get throughout next week. Interestingly enough the latest ONI came in holding steady at -0.8. Next months ONI should have no problem coming in at below the -0.5 threshold officially defining a weak La Nina from late summer through early winter with officially 5 consec overlapping months of the ONI below the -0.5 threshold. But the writing is on the wall as is being alluded to in many LR outlooks for the remainder of winter as the transition to neutral ENSO conditions and possibly even weak El Nino status by the spring and summer. Unfort for us winter weather lovers we are going to have to suffer through the rest of this week and next weeks "Jan Thaw". This will likely seem like an eternity, but my guess is if I am correct about what we are to see with the SOI crashing this upcoming week, and the MJO forecast actually verifies and comes out strongly in phase 1-ish (the two may go hand in hand), then by middle to end of next week the modeling will really begin to show what might be for the 23rd and beyond. The EPS and GEFS are already showing the evolution begining around the 23rd-24th. My guess however, as is usually the case, the modeling will be 2-4 days too quick with the evolution so we may have to wait until after the 25th-27th to really be in a good pattern, one that would bring us back to truly Normal to below normal temps and one that could produce a snow storm. Good things come to those who wait....right?

[Frank_Wx]

Not all of February will be amazing. It will be a solid 10-14 day stretch and it's possible it starts January 27th.

[Snow88]

DT



"Watch Early February for possible big eastern US winter storm... If MJO does go into phase 8 in neutral enso signal is very strong for BOOM"

[skinsfan1177]

Many believe all of February possibly into March may be amaxing

[essexcountypete]

Many believe all of February possibly into March may be amaxing

I like "amaxing" and I hope it catches on

[skinsfan1177]

Many believe all of February possibly into March may be amaxing

I like "amaxing" and I hope it catches on

[sroc4]

Many believe all of February possibly into March may be amaxing

Those many are hopeful as are the rest of us, but seeing is believing right?  I dont care how optimistic people may be about it, professional or amateur, several things need to happen in order to have a full month of "Amaxing".  The only way I see us having all of Feb that poss extends into March to be "amaxing" (Im with you Pete this should catch on) is if we end up with a true SSWE (sudden strat warming event) within the first half of Feb.  That said even without a true full on SSWE and strat split, we can still see good stretches of simply amazing (vs amaXing which will be termed for an all out sprint of snow and cold from Feb 1st through the end of March) pattern and snow chances is if we cont to keep the strat perturbed enough preventing it from tightening up and remaining centered over the N POLE.  There is enough evidence thus far to believe that this will in fact be the case through at least the first week of Feb.  So at least the strat "should" remain, although less than optimal, in the not the worse case scenario heading into the end of Jan and the first 7-10days of Feb with an elongated vortex with a good orientation.      

The first thing we need to start with and have happen is a shift in the tropical forcings which as has been discussed above begins next week with the SOI changes and MJO pulses.  The intensity of, and over all effects of these changes, however, are still not set in stone, and will still take time to evolve and consequently show up in the atmosphere; usually on the order of 5-10days.  If strong enough, these two things can lead to additional pole ward heat flux, and ultimately another wave 1 and or wave 2 attack on the stratosphere setting us up for Feb. into March.  

I personally am encouraged by what if forecast to happen next week in the Equatorial Pac.  This should lead to changes such that the cold and snow chances will increase drastically beyond the 25th-27th or so and last 10-14days like Frank noted.  But without the strat behaving we may still go back and forth with the cold shots/snow chances; back to warm shots and cutters as there will still likely be that background La Nina state persisting (although less and less as time goes on) through the end of Feb into March...without a more favorable strat outcome in Feb.  

Time will tell, so we now have to Hurry up and wait similar to the way we did in early to mid Dec waiting through a warm spell for that massive -WPO ridge to go up.  That ended up producing cold and snow for the area.  And again the end of Dec into early Jan as we waited through another warm spell through Xmas for the -EPO ridge to develop which also produced cold and snow more recently.  Just look below at my signature for the snow totals for LI and the dates.  I believe this next period of waiting will also lead to snow chances that will produce; hopefully for a longer stretch as the La Nina conts to fade, but to quote the great Tom Petty.....

"The way-hey-ting is the HARRR-DEST part".  

[billg315]

5 to 6 weeks of Amaxing is probably too much to hope for with this winter. I'll take two or three weeks of Amaxing from Jan. 27 to mid-Feb. for now, and then take it from there.

[skinsfan1177]

This is really Amaxing this word

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Many believe all of February possibly into March may be amaxing

Those many are hopeful as are the rest of us, but seeing is believing right?  I dont care how optimistic people may be about it, professional or amateur, several things need to happen in order to have a full month of "Amaxing".  The only way I see us having all of Feb that poss extends into March to be "amaxing" (Im with you Pete this should catch on) is if we end up with a true SSWE (sudden strat warming event) within the first half of Feb.  That said even without a true full on SSWE and strat split, we can still see good stretches of simply amazing (vs amaXing which will be termed for an all out sprint of snow and cold from Feb 1st through the end of March) pattern and snow chances is if we cont to keep the strat perturbed enough preventing it from tightening up and remaining centered over the N POLE.  There is enough evidence thus far to believe that this will in fact be the case through at least the first week of Feb.  So at least the strat "should" remain, although less than optimal, in the not the worse case scenario heading into the end of Jan and the first 7-10days of Feb with an elongated vortex with a good orientation.      

The first thing we need to start with and have happen is a shift in the tropical forcings which as has been discussed above begins next week with the SOI changes and MJO pulses.  The intensity of, and over all effects of these changes, however, are still not set in stone, and will still take time to evolve and consequently show up in the atmosphere; usually on the order of 5-10days.  If strong enough, these two things can lead to additional pole ward heat flux, and ultimately another wave 1 and or wave 2 attack on the stratosphere setting us up for Feb. into March.  

I personally am encouraged by what if forecast to happen next week in the Equatorial Pac.  This should lead to changes such that the cold and snow chances will increase drastically beyond the 25th-27th or so and last 10-14days like Frank noted.  But without the strat behaving we may still go back and forth with the cold shots/snow chances; back to warm shots and cutters as there will still likely be that background La Nina state persisting (although less and less as time goes on) through the end of Feb into March...without a more favorable strat outcome in Feb.  

Time will tell, so we now have to Hurry up and wait similar to the way we did in early to mid Dec waiting through a warm spell for that massive -WPO ridge to go up.  That ended up producing cold and snow for the area.  And again the end of Dec into early Jan as we waited through another warm spell through Xmas for the -EPO ridge to develop which also produced cold and snow more recently.  Just look below at my signature for the snow totals for LI and the dates.  I believe this next period of waiting will also lead to snow chances that will produce; hopefully for a longer stretch as the La Nina conts to fade, but to quote the great Tom Petty.....

"The way-hey-ting is the HARRR-DEST part".  

Finally going to see the great Tom Petty live in April while I'm down in Georgia. Been one of my favorites for a long time, can't wait to finally see him live.

[Snow88]

Possible El Nino by the end of January?

Signs are pointing to a very active February

[sroc4]

Possible El Nino by the end of January?

Signs are pointing to a very active February

El Nino like atmospheric conditions possible with the SOI, and active STJ. Not techincally an el nino though. Background state is still weak La Nina to neg neutral

[sroc4]

Many believe all of February possibly into March may be amaxing

but to quote the great Tom Petty.....

"The way-hey-ting is the HARRR-DEST part".  

Finally going to see the great Tom Petty live in April while I'm down in Georgia. Been one of my favorites for a long time, can't wait to finally see him live.  

Very jealous. Have never seen but which I could. Love his music. Listening brings me back to a much simpler time.

[amugs]

5 to 6 weeks of Amaxing is probably too much to hope for with this winter. I'll take two or three weeks of Amaxing from Jan. 27 to mid-Feb. for now, and then take it from there.

No its not with the pattern and MJO pulse incoming and the ENSO looking to swing to weak El nino, westerly wind burst strong as it is modelled we could have this last through early March or late Febrauray from what is being discussed and what I am seeing IMO.
MJO getting stronger guys - real deal incoming - showing the chart yesterday and here it is today need this to keep showing this and stronger as we move forward.

[sroc4]

What happened to Toms Post?

[essexcountypete]

What happened to Toms Post?

He has several posts on Page 24 of this thread. Love having him post here.

[Sponsored content]