Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Jan 02, 2017 7:50 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Wave 2 (January 8th-9th) has so much potential if it can separate itself from wave 1 (January 6th-7th). The closed vort ejects east and the ridge spike amplifies the trough.

Lots of Potential but gfs on its own right now.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 02, 2017 7:52 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Wave 2 (January 8th-9th) has so much potential if it can separate itself from wave 1 (January 6th-7th). The closed vort ejects east and the ridge spike amplifies the trough.

Lots of Potential but gfs on its own right now.

Keep in mind the ensembles remain much more bullish than OP models. That is a red flag. EPS members have hits, as do some of these SREFS members.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 02, 2017 7:53 am

00z GFS was so sexy.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 13 MSLP850500300gfs00156

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 02, 2017 7:53 am

06z GEFS

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 13 GEFSNEPrecip06150

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 02, 2017 7:53 am

Check banter thread to see 00z GFS snow map

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Jan 02, 2017 7:56 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Check banter thread to see 00z GFS snow map

Frank quick question how important is today's cutter for the weekend setup. And should we paying attention to it

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:05 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Check banter thread to see 00z GFS snow map

Frank quick question how important is today's cutter for the weekend setup. And should we paying attention to it

Nah.

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:09 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Check banter thread to see 00z GFS snow map

Frank quick question how important is today's cutter for the weekend setup. And should we paying attention to it

Thanks frank

Nah.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 02, 2017 9:11 am

The 00z GFS Parallel (different than 00z GFS OP) also showed a Godzilla/Roidzilla last night.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 02, 2017 9:28 am

It's worth calling out that the -NAO regime looks to be transient. It's negative now but will spike positive by the weekend (no coincidence that's the potential storm time frame too).

by Guest Mon Jan 02, 2017 9:50 am

Pretty nice signs. As I stated 3 days ago, I will begin to believe come Wednesday morning if something still shows up on the maps. I do sense excitement in your posts though Frank. That's a good thing.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 02, 2017 9:54 am

syosnow94 wrote:Pretty nice signs. As I stated 3 days ago, I will begin to believe come Wednesday morning if something still shows up on the maps. I do sense excitement in your posts though Frank. That's a good thing.

I've been trying to tame myself until Wednesday. My concern is the lack of spacing between wave 1 and wave 2. We'll see where trends take us today.

by **docstox12** Mon Jan 02, 2017 10:14 am

Looks like some positives lining up here.Thinking I'll go long coffee futures cause the long range crew is gonna be up a LOT of hours tracking this if it all starts to come together mid week.Here's hoping, some of those maps look awesome!!!!

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Jan 02, 2017 10:16 am

Maybe have our first live chat

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 02, 2017 10:30 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Maybe have our first live chat

YES. I hope so. We can test it out.

by Guest Mon Jan 02, 2017 10:45 am

Another thought/question. If the 2 waves remain close what are the chances we get 2 events close together as they ride across the baroclinic zone to our south? Something like a 3-5 Friday and another similar event Sunday.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 02, 2017 10:57 am

syosnow94 wrote:Another thought/question. If the 2 waves remain close what are the chances we get 2 events close together as they ride across the baroclinic zone to our south? Something like a 3-5 Friday and another similar event Sunday.

The EURO does not hold any of the energy back so it's one wave of light snow throughout the weekend. GFS and other models separate them, which is better if you're looking for a big storm. The GFS has light snow on Saturday but most of the energy is held back for the bigger storm. Tough to say. I think it's possible we can see a very minor event followed by a big one. Or just one light to moderate event (if EURO is right)

by **jake732** Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:04 am

At hour 102 on gfs it doesn't look as good. Hopefully it'll pull together

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:15 am

Wow, if there was northern stream energy to phase into the southern vort we would be looking at an area-wide Roidzilla. The ridge was also better this run compared to 00z. It's just that the second wave vort dug more, hence further south, and H5 did not close off on time to raise heights along the EC. It will slide east this run but I love what I saw aloft. We have plenty of time to get northern stream interaction to show up on the models.

WHAT A RUN

by **jake732** Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:17 am

Frank what a run in a good way?

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:18 am

Look at this babe.

We do not want to be in the bullseye right now. We have her where we want.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:20 am

What a babe

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 13 586a7dafc557d

by **dsix85** Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:21 am

Frank- when do you expect it to tilt negative??

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:23 am

dsix85 wrote:Frank- when do you expect it to tilt negative??

We need to see northern stream phasing, or the 500mb low close off on its own, before we can talk about trough axis.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:24 am

jake732 wrote:Frank what a run in a good way?

Yes

by **algae888** Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:24 am

and the cmc has the first wave....
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 13 Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16

by **dsix85** Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:28 am

What would be more beneficial for a Roidzilla- to see northern stream phasing, or the 500mb low close off on its own?

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