Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

by **algae888** Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:24 am

and the cmc has the first wave....
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 14 Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16

by **dsix85** Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:28 am

What would be more beneficial for a Roidzilla- to see northern stream phasing, or the 500mb low close off on its own?

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:28 am

algae888 wrote:and the cmc has the first wave....

Snow map. It does NOT have wave 2.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:30 am

12z GFS snow map. If this happened, those people in the south would lock themselves in their basements. If you saw the movie "Purge" I can see something like that playing out the night before the snowstorm.

by **dsix85** Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:35 am

What would be more beneficial for a Roidzilla- to see northern stream phasing, or the 500mb low close off on its own?

by **hyde345** Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:40 am

Unfortunately there is a very real possibility that we get skunked while the cold air is in place and wind up with very little snow. I'm hoping for the best.

by **hyde345** Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:43 am

Frank_Wx wrote:12z GFS snow map. If this happened, those people in the south would lock themselves in their basements. If you saw the movie "Purge" I can see something like that playing out the night before the snowstorm.

Haha, schools will be closed for 2 months.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:52 am

dsix85 wrote:What would be more beneficial for a Roidzilla- to see northern stream phasing, or the 500mb low close off on its own?

Northern stream phasing. The latter would be more Godzilla IMO.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 02, 2017 12:11 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:12z GFS snow map. If this happened, those people in the south would lock themselves in their basements. If you saw the movie "Purge" I can see something like that playing out the night before the snowstorm.

12 inches of snow would paralyze Atlanta, 5 inches brought them to their knees several years ago. Lots of family down there so I know firsthand.

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Jan 02, 2017 12:13 pm

Frank here's my own personal assessment on this potential event. I'm not buying into this possible "southern slider" track. Too many times these big ticket winter storms have started as a miss to the south only to trend to the north in future runs. I believe if we were to get shafted from this storm, the cause would be that the 2nd wave was too strung out like the latest CMC shows. Right now we have to continue to follow the ensembles. If the EURO continues to trend towards a more consolidated system I'll be very encouraged even if it shows a miss at this current time.

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Jan 02, 2017 12:35 pm

The 250mb jet streak shows that this storm will come North. Not buying the southern track at this time. Also we are in a good spot imo atm

by **algae888** Mon Jan 02, 2017 12:40 pm

gefs are wet for sat/ sun wave 2...
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 14 Gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_22

12z

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 14 Gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_23

6z

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 02, 2017 12:42 pm

THE GEFS ARE INSANE

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Jan 02, 2017 12:44 pm

algae888 wrote:gefs are wet for sat/ sun wave 2...

12z

6z

I was just about to post those maps myself. BIG SHIFT WEST!!!

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 02, 2017 12:53 pm

Are the individual GEFS available anywhere free?

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Jan 02, 2017 12:53 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:THE GEFS ARE INSANE

Oh yeah. When you have .75 accumulated precip over parts of the area with a smoothed out ensemble run this far out in time, that's a head turner. I can imagine there's some individual monster hits. Looking towards the EURO we don't need to see a blizzard on this run. As long as there's continued improvements with the upper levels/surface maps with the 12z run that will be an encouraging sign. Trends!!!

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 02, 2017 1:07 pm

Still early in the run but EURO is not separating the energy. I would not expect much this run.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 02, 2017 1:15 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 02, 2017 1:15 pm

EURO vs. GFS. Me on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx/status/815984215418425344

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 02, 2017 1:16 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:GEFS

Alot are mises, but man some of those big ones are roidzillas I imagine, does it matter that it appears there are more misses than major hits?

by **jake732** Mon Jan 02, 2017 1:17 pm

i am very nervous about the EURO. doesnt look to good!

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 02, 2017 1:18 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO vs. GFS. Me on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx/status/815984215418425344

Which are you feeling is the right solution or still too early for you to make that educated decision?

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 02, 2017 1:19 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:GEFS

Alot are mises, but man some of those big ones are roidzillas I imagine, does it matter that it appears there are more misses than major hits?

But they are misses to the north and not off the southeast coast.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 02, 2017 1:20 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:EURO vs. GFS. Me on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx/status/815984215418425344

Which are you feeling is the right solution or still too early for you to make that educated decision?

Unfortunately GFS is an outlier. I am curious to see the EURO Ensembles.

by jrollins628 Mon Jan 02, 2017 1:23 pm

What do you think Frank does the EURO or GFS have the right idea? I thought the GFS have been standing on top lately if we look back at the last storm?

by **jake732** Mon Jan 02, 2017 1:24 pm

jrollins628 wrote:What do you think Frank does the EURO or GFS have the right idea? I thought the GFS have been standing on top lately if we look back at the last storm?

be careful when u say that Smile

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 02, 2017 1:27 pm

jrollins628 wrote:What do you think Frank does the EURO or GFS have the right idea? I thought the GFS have been standing on top lately if we look back at the last storm?

I think until these upper level short waves are properly sampled by the models, not any one scenario can be taken seriously. Which means we have to wait until Wednesday morning 12z runs. The Canadian model has an even different solution aloft. So literally no agreement anywhere.

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