Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[Frank_Wx]

Check out @nj_strong_wx's Tweet: https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx/status/818979773967925248?s=09

[billg315]

Wow, check out this upper level jet extension taking shape in the Pacific over the next 7 days. Safe to say the drought in California will come to an end. The EPO/PNA will not be in our favor either.

Day 1



Day 3



Day 7



Day 8

And as usual with California, if the droughts ending, they'll have mudslides and flooding. There seems to be no in between in that state.

[Frank_Wx]

Nope. Earthquakes, droughts / wildfires, then mudslides.

Pass.

[billg315]

I thought about mentioning the wildfires but decided that will likely hold off until summer. And I'm with you, I'll pass on that state.

[frank 638]

its been 4 years that california has suffered a severe drought now they are getting the rain and mountain snow which is good the bad news is now they have to worry about mudslides roads washed away wow .i have been checking out our drought monitor so far it does look the same do u think our drought will get better by the spring or summer

[Frank_Wx]

By definition, this looks like a SSWE to me. Too bad it's extreme LR.

[rb924119]

Very well could be grasping at straws, but did anybody see what today's 12z GFS Parallel Op did for next week, approximately hour 168??? just saying........

[rb924119]

00z GFS Op looked to take a step in the right direction....and the 00z GEM!!!!! Rrrrggghhhhhhhh!!!! HUMINA HUMINA HUMINA

[Frank_Wx]

I'm not excited for next week. Country looks devoid of cold air.

[rb924119]

I'm not excited for next week. Country looks devoid of cold air.

Thanks for crushing all of my hopes and dreams. Time for me to crawl in a corner and cry myself to sleep lmao nah, jk. I'm still hopeful. It looks like the operationals are at least seeing the storm track I was advertising, just gotta see if it can hold and then iron out the details later

[HectorO]

Wow, check out this upper level jet extension taking shape in the Pacific over the next 7 days. Safe to say the drought in California will come to an end. The EPO/PNA will not be in our favor either.

Day 1



Day 3



Day 7



Day 8

And as usual with California, if the droughts ending, they'll have mudslides and flooding. There seems to be no in between in that state.

That's a huge state. If I had the money to pick up and go I would get a cabin in Lake Tahoe.

[Frank_Wx]

A January thaw is poised to bring above normal temperatures to 2/3's of the country beginning the 16th. I am thinking this regime will last until the 28th-29th. As mentioned yesterday, I am cautiously optimistic the changes in the Tropical Pacific, then eventually the Stratosphere, leads to a favorable winter pattern come February. The middle two weeks of February is when I'm thinking this pattern comes together. But we have a long way to go until then.

The EPO/WPO will shoot to +3 SD in the coming days. The location of the Pacific Jet extension across the northern Pacific will track cyclones into the WPO/EPO domains. Further, the intensity of these cyclones will keep heights well below normal hence the dramatic look of the +EPO by the ECM. As the western U.S. experiences unsettled and cooler than normal weather, the east will see milder temperatures and frequent rain events during this time period.




EPS Day 5 to 10 850mb temp anomaly average



EPS Day 9 to 14 850mb temp anomaly average



The Canadian warmth, shown best at H5 by the Hudson Bay "block," will remove arctic air from much of central and eastern North America. This block will eventually deteriorate or move into the higher latitudes near the AO/NAO domains. Again, I think that happens either the last couple of days of January or early February.

Enjoy the 40's and 50's

[weatherwatchermom]

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/RSXX5470:1:RS

Oymyakon will also have a warm up according to weaather.com and accuweather....going from almost 50 below to 20 below zero

[HectorO]

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/RSXX5470:1:RS

Oymyakon will also have a warm up according to weaather.com and accuweather....going from almost 50 below to 20 below zero

You're obsessed with this place lol

[rb924119]

Glad to see there's at least some support for the ideas discussed yesterday may have a little merit:

http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-bastardi/mjo-plot-continues-to-thicken

[sroc4]

Glad to see there's at least some support for the ideas discussed yesterday may have a little merit:

http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-bastardi/mjo-plot-continues-to-thicken

Im with you on thi9s one Ray.  Certainly not lock stock and barrel given the way the 5-7days and beyond MJO forecasts have verified.  The one thing I will bring back up is the SOI.  Look at where we are now with lower pressures still over Darwin. Tahiti is starrting to show lower pressures, so this is why the latest SOI has come down to around 8.7 instead of in the high teens and twenties like the last week or so.  
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ 




But look at the flip by day three.  Pressures are building into the west and pressures cont to be low in the east.  This cont through out the run.  So expect the SOI to drop.  If it drops significantly enough for long enough to quote JB it should introduce "the cattle prod" to the system.  We shall see if its enough to significantly alter things but these maps support the MJO forecast.  The modeling over the NA continent will begin to shift as a wave break to the firehose that is the Pac jet should occur....IF we get a significant enough  drop to the SOI.  This would/should begin to shift the trop forcings from a La Nina like pattern to an el nino like pattern. Likely what Tom (isotherm) discussed with regards to a shift in the walker cell config.  

[weatherwatchermom]

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/RSXX5470:1:RS

Oymyakon will also have a warm up according to weaather.com and accuweather....going from almost 50 below to 20 below zero

You're obsessed with this place lol

I know......it fascinates me how people can live in a place considered to be the coldest place on earth with no indoor plumbing...temps so extreme and the middle of no where..and exquisitely beautiful! .it is on my bucket lists of places to visit...my husband thinks I am crazy.. ps...lived in Brazil for a while so I do like warm weather places as well! I will find some other cold spot  to post about...

[HectorO]

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/RSXX5470:1:RS

Oymyakon will also have a warm up according to weaather.com and accuweather....going from almost 50 below to 20 below zero

You're obsessed with this place lol

I know......it fascinates me how people can live in a place considered to be the coldest place on earth with no indoor plumbing...temps so extreme and the middle of no where..and exquisitely beautiful! .it is on my bucket lists of places to visit...my husband thinks I am crazy.. ps...lived in Brazil for a while so I do like warm weather places as well! I will find some other cold spot  to post about...

Barrow Alaska imo is worse. Temp highs there may reach -20 and -30 for lows and maybe warmer, although that place in russia by temp is cold it has a summer though. Barrow doesn't. The hottest it gets there is June and it barely breaks 40s, 38 is the average summer temp. And that town in Russia is calm wind where Barrow has a constant wind blowing off the Arctic ocean which make the temps feels way worse. It's warm this week for them too. A balmy, warm -8 for a high.

[amugs]

Um any like 8? 7 eight nine but 8 would be awesome right? In the game of crap 6 and 8 make a Killin for you. 
MJO looking to go 8 by these charts IF we can get this which after looking at the maps for Darwin and Tahiti we most certainly look to headed in that direction 

[frank 638]

just got done watching Lonnie Quinn forecast he mentioned that we will go back to a winter pattern by late Jan into Feb he also believes that February looks to be cold and possibly snowy

[amugs]

just got done watching Lonnie Quinn forecast he mentioned that we will go back to a winter pattern by late Jan into Feb he also believes that February looks to be cold and possibly snowy

LQ reading our board - he is a Ken doll disguised as a weather man.

[rb924119]

Glad to see there's at least some support for the ideas discussed yesterday may have a little merit:

http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-bastardi/mjo-plot-continues-to-thicken

Im with you on thi9s one Ray.  Certainly not lock stock and barrel given the way the 5-7days and beyond MJO forecasts have verified.  The one thing I will bring back up is the SOI.  Look at where we are now with lower pressures still over Darwin. Tahiti is starrting to show lower pressures, so this is why the latest SOI has come down to around 8.7 instead of in the high teens and twenties like the last week or so.  

But look at the flip by day three.  Pressures are building into the west and pressures cont to be low in the east.  This cont through out the run.  So expect the SOI to drop.  If it drops significantly enough for long enough to quote JB it should introduce "the cattle prod" to the system.  We shall see if its enough to significantly alter things but these maps support the MJO forecast.  The modeling over the NA continent will begin to shift as a wave break to the firehose that is the Pac jet should occur....IF we get a significant enough  drop to the SOI.  This would/should begin to shift the trop forcings from a La Nina like pattern to an el nino like pattern.  Likely what Tom (isotherm) discussed with regards to a shift in the walker cell config.

No, I know you are, that's why I just said "ideas" haha I'm just meant outside our discussion here on the board, that's all. At least we know we're not crazy for thinking what we are (although maybe we are and just aren't the ONLY crazy ones haha)

But nice illustration linking everything!

[algae888]

Yeah guys eps says we flip day 11. +PNA SPIKE trough east. let's get some snow this weekend then we punt next week and close out winter with a bang

[Armando Salvadore]

Encouraging to see guidance show a more pronounced wave 2 configuration in the day 10-15, as indicated by the zonal winds and WAF, we see weakening from 1-hPa down towards 30-hPa. The weakening won't support a prevailing SSWE right away, but it'll refrain it from contracting and strengthening over the pole. Rather, we see weakening and an elongated look. Now, add in a MJO propagation in the near future, this bodes well for that wave 2 depiction. Plus, i thought about that if we see a more sustained cool lower strat/upper tropical troposphere, this would allow for a more convective regime to thrive in. February should produce more than what this winter has given thus far.

[Frank_Wx]

Armando I will be curious to see what those graphs look like when they catch wind of the MJO activity. Verbatim, those results will not yield much other then some elongation. The PV would likely reshape over the Pole. 10hPa mean zonal winds are still forecasted for a reversal. If this happens, along with the MJO attack, I think we'll see the Strat PV permanently purturbed.

[Frank_Wx]

Man we could be looking at some wicked rain storms over the next 10 days. A couple of models are advertising sub 990mb low's in the center of the country and tracking this way. Not surprising with how the Pacific pattern is taking shape.

[Armando Salvadore]

Indeed Frank, yea taking verbatim that EPV flux, it won't do much harm. However, this upcoming MJO wave structure appears that it's most likely will be coherent and have more amplitude. If that is the case, then what you mentioned may come to fruition. Certainly, it'll shoot poleward latent heat/WAF, which would also prevent it from strengthening over the polar. If we can manage and sustain a strong enough wave 2, maybe we see big implications for early Feb.

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