Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[nutleyblizzard]

mugs that block in c/Canada stays there for 5 days. nothing cutting with that look..


I would give us a 25% chance of snow the next 10 days in the midst of the torch! pattern change after. fun times ahead

The damn primary drives up warm air into the area ahead of the storm and we end up as rain. we're going to need the primary to transfer quicker for things to get interesting.

[algae888]

nut this is ens 2 m temps for 1st system sat 7am and 1pm


then 2nd system tues/ wens 7am and 1 pm.


not to far off upp/30's / low 40's so if system bombs out it will produce it's own cold air. agree set up is not great with regards to cold air but remember we are in late jan so cold will be available further up in atmosphere. we need right track and bomb out south of us and we can snow.

[Frank_Wx]

Insane block in south central Canada on the EURO. It does some odd things at 500mb, but the signal for a high impact event is there. I will not discount snow but I find it highly improbable. I don't think the pattern is ready for snow that soon after seeing +++ temp departures.

frank not seeing +++ just + which we can work with in late January. look at this signal on gefs and geps some one in our area will snow with this track..

Temps departures in Canada are +20 or higher

[Frank_Wx]

Too much of an antecedent air mass.

We should be monitoring next week's threat for high impact rain and wind.

[algae888]

yes frank anomoly

actual

obviously a weak system will not do it however if a low bombs out s/n j coast we will snow

[algae888]

the trend for this upcoming stretch has been colder 2m temps here are gefs from 12 z thurs valid for 18z sat and then todays 12z valid same time frame


the trend is def colder. we were forecast to be in the 50's for much of this week and weekend. that looks highly unlikely att.

[Frank_Wx]

It's the overnight temps that will keep temp departures at high levels. We should be in the low 30's (upper 20's in some spots) this time of year. Low's will be in the upper 30's to low 40's. That is where your +++ comes from. At least +5 above normal.

Yes, next week could trend colder. Just not seeing it.

[Frank_Wx]

HP placement is best for New England

[jmanley32]

So I guess I am a bit late to the new discussion of a high impact storm next tues or wed? Wind driven rain being high impact? So what types of winds are we talking, saw that tweet bout CMC, talking hurricane force winds? That would be high impact for sure, but I saw GFS does not have as pronounced a system, CMC and Euro though look like they could be pretty strong. Guess we won't know specifics until later in the week, I for one just hope it holds off from monday cuz im visiting a friend in CT and driving home Monday afternoon.

[jmanley32]

Okay the fact the GFS is not the strongest and showing 60-75 kt 925mb winds over much of the coastal plain is def concerning. Plus a buttload of rain, man if it could only b snow, Al ur not giving up on that are ya LOL

[jmanley32]

The euro is nuts, can't see it in smaller steps but on tt, thats one heck of a LP, there would def b beach and tree damage, not to mention flooding, honestly doesn;t look like a fun time to me. U all know wind is exciting to me but when its winter id much rather it be snow so I can go out in it, a soaking rain no thanks.

[jmanley32]

Arewe still looking at possible good snow storm in 27th-5th time frame?

[jmanley32]

Not sure I remember a rainstorm getting so much buzz during the Winter....

Yes March 2010 we had wind gusts to 70+ mph and a lot of tree and power damage, along with some rain but not as much as this is showing. Not sure about the other month.

[jmanley32]

Found both of them, look at NY / NJ impacts Dayummm

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/December_1992_nor'easter

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2010_nor'easter

[skinsfan1177]

Arewe still looking at possible good snow storm in 27th-5th time frame?

Yes Jman and soon I think we are going to need multi threads for all the possible events

[jmanley32]

Arewe still looking at possible good snow storm in 27th-5th time frame?

Yes Jman and soon I think we are going to need multi threads for all the possible events

sweet, check out links to those two storms they referenced in the tewwets i just posted the wiki links.

[algae888]

[quote="jmanley32"]Okay the fact the GFS is not the strongest and showing 60-75 kt 925mb winds over much of the coastal plain is def concerning.  Plus a buttload of rain, man if it could only b snow, Al ur not giving up on that are ya LOL


jon with this look I will not give up. frank always says don't worry about temps this far out. 850's are warm and we know we will have marginal cold air warm by jan standards but i'm sure there are some hits in there. we need to know where the primary goes when the transfer ooccurs and if lp bombs out. at least inland areas should be okay with this setup

[jmanley32]

Okay the fact the GFS is not the strongest and showing 60-75 kt 925mb winds over much of the coastal plain is def concerning.  Plus a buttload of rain, man if it could only b snow, Al ur not giving up on that are ya LOL


jon with this look I will not give up. frank always says don't worry about temps this far out. 850's are warm and we know we will have marginal cold air warm by jan standards but i'm sure there are some hits in there. we need to know where the primary goes when the transfer ooccurs and if lp bombs out. at least inland areas should be okay with this setup

true enough, would love to have 3-4 ft snow, per cmc rain of 3-4 inches would drop close to that amount of snow.  we can dream. We will know soon enough, one week away or so. Good pt on the bombing out, the october snowstorm would not have produced several years ago had it not bombed out pulling in its own cold air.

[rb924119]

Just gonna throw this out there........BLIZZARD OF 1888. Just sayin'

[jmanley32]

Plus, with those strong withs, and that much convection I would think most if not all at least 925mb winds would come down to surface, easy gusts verbatim to 75mph+ on coast and into NYC metro. Long ways to go, will be looking for franks thread and input.

[jmanley32]

Just gonna throw this out there........BLIZZARD OF 1888. Just sayin'

Oh now u just made my heart skip a beat lol

[SoulSingMG]

Just gonna throw this out there........BLIZZARD OF 1888. Just sayin'

HOW DARE YOU

[rb924119]

Just gonna throw this out there........BLIZZARD OF 1888. Just sayin'

Oh now u just made my heart skip  a beat lol

LMFAOOOO I couldn't help myself, but hey; there's always a chance ahahaha

[Grselig]

aaahhhhh Blizzard of 1888  aaaahhhhhhh

Ok my image of Homer did not upload. doh

[billg315]

Oh I remember the March 2010 storm. Not good. Had just moved into my old apartment. Wind and rain was intense mid-storm water started pouring in around my window frames. It was a mess (glad I was in an Apt., not my own house. And here's what it did to Main Street in Bound Brook:
https://youtu.be/Ty7PZbFaw-M

[skinsfan1177]

Looks like we will have lots of vorts to track.

[billg315]

We often talk of a major event to dislodge a pattern and change it. Perhaps an intense coastal storm, even if it is only rain - not snow - is heralding the onset of the colder snowier pattern Frank and others have been alluding to for end of Jan./first half of Feb.

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