Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 16, 2017 9:20 am

An even stronger 850 hPa amplitude WWB east of the Dateline is forecasted on latest GFS Hovmoller.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 31 U.anom.30.5S-5N

Interesting ENSO battle taking place at 200hPa

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 31 U.200.anom.30.5S-5N

Convection apparent...

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 31 Vp.anom.30.5S-5N

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 31 ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 16, 2017 10:07 am

Video upload in progress. Please be aware that I could be completely off on this, and quite honestly it is looking that way with today's 12z's so far, but I am not ready to write this off just yet; not until that energy at least gets some sampling and we see how the southern stream energy evolves.

by **Radz** Mon Jan 16, 2017 10:07 am

I've gotta say that its getting quite exciting seeing the pieces fall into place for what seems to be a more sustained winter pattern emerging after the 27th. Loving all of the analysis that you all provide on here! Of course heard it here first, but now many Mets are chiming in with very similar posts and videos, liking the prospects for sure!

by **Armando Salvadore** Mon Jan 16, 2017 10:39 am

Frank_Wx wrote:As Nutley mentioned, and what we all predicted, the GEFS reverted back to showing major Pacific blocking and trough placement on the EC to match the EPS.

The pattern after the 27th will rock. Snowstorm signal growing stronger.

Ahhh, it only took one more run to get that to convert towards the EPS. Yea, can't say i'm shocked since we saw it coming.

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 16, 2017 11:06 am

Armando Salvadore wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:As Nutley mentioned, and what we all predicted, the GEFS reverted back to showing major Pacific blocking and trough placement on the EC to match the EPS.

The pattern after the 27th will rock. Snowstorm signal growing stronger.

Ahhh, it only took one more run to get that to convert towards the EPS. Yea, can't say i'm shocked since we saw it coming.

How about a collective High five! lol Obv things can change but...

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 31 054c4df54090632104b337aa69942b24955697973901498d59e0f3c3964acde5

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 31 054c4df54090632104b337aa69942b24955697973901498d59e0f3c3964acde5

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 16, 2017 11:17 am

by **algae888** Mon Jan 16, 2017 11:28 am

Frank_Wx wrote:

That's awesome and if you extrapolate out it should return to seven eight and one at the end of February at least that's what the long range EPS shows

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 16, 2017 11:29 am

So, here's my video outlining why I am not ready to give up on idea that higher elevations north and west of I-95 could see backend wintry weather with our next event:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYUmRrZjF5RmQwS0E

Again, I would like to reiterate that I could be completely off with this, and there is no precipitation that lags behind by the time that the lower-level cold air can be drawn in. Likewise, the chance that there is an interaction with energies could very well be non-existent (I caution that there is only a chance of interaction at this time, not certainty) and there might not be enough upper-level forcing mechanisms to promote precipitation. At any rate, enough looking for scapegoats. Enjoy!!

For reference, here is the map highlighting the areas that could potentially be surprised with wintry precipitation (shaded in red):

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 31 Late-w11

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 31 Late-w11

by **algae888** Mon Jan 16, 2017 11:31 am

Rb and Scott did you see today's 12z GFS snow for at least the interior and close to the coast you guessed it mugs on Saturday. Rb and scott are all over this one. With that block in Canada everything's going to go underneath us and forget about this torch Saturday and Sunday look cold.

by **amugs** Mon Jan 16, 2017 11:51 am

algae888 wrote:Rb and Scott did you see today's 12z GFS snow for at least the interior and close to the coast you guessed it mugs on Saturday. Rb and scott are all over this one. With that block in Canada everything's going to go underneath us and forget about this torch Saturday and Sunday look cold.

Al I am seeing maybe two day torch so to speak as we are on the western side of this cutter next week which looks to be a beast but it looks like a backdoor cold front sweeps in for this weekend. HP is in NE and it may snow - another fn Saturday SOAB!! Interesting what seems to be a torchy period as has been advertised is cooling off to be AN overall. IF we can get out of this next 8 days a plus 4 or 5 overall I would call that a win and then the poop hits the fan after this 25th through late Feb.

Remember that the EPS leads and always will with the H5 maps and recognizing the set up as I have learned, GEFS play catch up. I have to say I am not a betting man overall but I would bet a round of drinks at our next gathering that we reach N MYC metro Area to (double the bet for the next call - AN!)AN by Middle of Feb snowfall with this set up coming and we are entering the snowiest climatology part of the winter (February).

Love eth look of the MJO phase 8 1 2 for the late Jan through FEB time frame is absolutely gorgeous!!

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 31 Combined_image

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 31 Combined_image

ALL MJO MODELS have us going 8 1 2!

Here is the site - to much to copy and past - follow the yellow brook road !

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 31 Yellow-brick-road-rainbow

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 31 Yellow-brick-road-rainbow

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:30 pm

Has anyone looked at the storm around the 24th l. Jman the winds look bad and heavy rain. Can anyone elaborate on this threat.

by **skinsfan1177** Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:33 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:39 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Has anyone looked at the storm around the 24th l. Jman the winds look bad and heavy rain. Can anyone elaborate on this threat.

This could be bad. I'll start a thread on it Wednesday.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:46 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Has anyone looked at the storm around the 24th l. Jman the winds look bad and heavy rain. Can anyone elaborate on this threat.

This could be bad. I'll start a thread on it Wednesday.

To elaborate, it would be a wind-driven rainstorm.

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:59 pm

Not sure I remember a rainstorm getting so much buzz during the Winter....

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 31 Img_2410

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 16, 2017 1:02 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Not sure I remember a rainstorm getting so much buzz during the Winter....

The damn CMC floods us.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 31 587d0aabd176a

by **algae888** Mon Jan 16, 2017 1:04 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Has anyone looked at the storm around the 24th l. Jman the winds look bad and heavy rain. Can anyone elaborate on this threat.

This could be bad. I'll start a thread on it Wednesday.

To elaborate, it would be a wind-driven rainstorm.

Frank I wouldn't discount snow especially for the interior areas as we are in late January and a track to or south with a low bombing out could produce its own cold air plus we have high pressure to the north which could funnel in cold air also but yeah rain seems more likely at the moment

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 16, 2017 1:33 pm

algae888 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Has anyone looked at the storm around the 24th l. Jman the winds look bad and heavy rain. Can anyone elaborate on this threat.

This could be bad. I'll start a thread on it Wednesday.

To elaborate, it would be a wind-driven rainstorm.
Frank I wouldn't discount snow especially for the interior areas as we are in late January and a track to or south with a low bombing out could produce its own cold air plus we have high pressure to the north which could funnel in cold air also but yeah rain seems more likely at the moment

Not likely, but certainly as you say Al for the time of year definitely not to be ruled out.

by **algae888** Mon Jan 16, 2017 2:16 pm

Lr euro looks sweet. Bombing out low off s/ nj coast followed by another low pressure underneath. This before the pattern change

by **amugs** Mon Jan 16, 2017 2:23 pm

Holy smokes Need cold air and we have a Mega Roidzilla for next Mon/Tues strom!!!

by **amugs** Mon Jan 16, 2017 2:28 pm

COME ON BABY!! BOOKEND WEEKEND STORMS??

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 31 587d17428afd8

by **amugs** Mon Jan 16, 2017 2:41 pm

by **algae888** Mon Jan 16, 2017 2:41 pm

mugs that block in c/Canada stays there for 5 days. nothing cutting with that look..
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 31 Ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_6

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 31 Ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_10

I would give us a 25% chance of snow the next 10 days in the midst of the torch! pattern change after. fun times ahead

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 16, 2017 2:58 pm

Insane block in south central Canada on the EURO. It does some odd things at 500mb, but the signal for a high impact event is there. I will not discount snow but I find it highly improbable. I don't think the pattern is ready for snow that soon after seeing +++ temp departures.

by **algae888** Mon Jan 16, 2017 3:02 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Insane block in south central Canada on the EURO. It does some odd things at 500mb, but the signal for a high impact event is there. I will not discount snow but I find it highly improbable. I don't think the pattern is ready for snow that soon after seeing +++ temp departures.

frank not seeing +++ just + which we can work with in late January. look at this signal on gefs and geps some one in our area will snow with this track..
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 31 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_20

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 31 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_20

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 31 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_37

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 31 Gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_20

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 31 Gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_37

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Jan 16, 2017 3:06 pm

algae888 wrote:mugs that block in c/Canada stays there for 5 days. nothing cutting with that look..

I would give us a 25% chance of snow the next 10 days in the midst of the torch! pattern change after. fun times ahead

The damn primary drives up warm air into the area ahead of the storm and we end up as rain. we're going to need the primary to transfer quicker for things to get interesting.

by **algae888** Mon Jan 16, 2017 3:16 pm

nut this is ens 2 m temps for 1st system sat 7am and 1pm
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 31 Gem-ens_T2m_eus_21

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 31 Gem-ens_T2m_eus_22

then 2nd system tues/ wens 7am and 1 pm.
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 31 Gem-ens_T2m_eus_37

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 31 Gem-ens_T2m_eus_38

not to far off upp/30's / low 40's so if system bombs out it will produce it's own cold air. agree set up is not great with regards to cold air but remember we are in late jan so cold will be available further up in atmosphere. we need right track and bomb out south of us and we can snow.

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