January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

SoulSingMG wrote:

aiannone wrote:

With ratios

So we're back to a possible warning-level snowfall here in NYC proper? Lol...this STORM!

this gives me a bit above 6 inches, ill b happy with that! from this morning looked like almost nothing, but ray could b right with it being overdone nam.

syosnow94 wrote:So Alex and Scott.  As fellow long Islanders I am not in the WWA for 3-6".  It starts 2 miles east of me.  With the scheduled .4 qpf. over my house with good ratios 3-6" should be reasonable if the qpf forecast verifies.  You guys at about .6 qpf could be looking at 6-9 even though you are only forecast for 4-6"  

Lets hope for a last minute shift west because rb is still making me nervous.

Thoughts?

For me personally I agree with rb's hesitation to buy into tyhe NAM lock stock and Barrel. I think, and this is a line from a buddy O mine who Im having texts back and forth with right now, but is a lurker on here so should see this, if we all had a dollar every time someone said west, looks better wed all be rich with just the last 48hrs.

Its been my experince with the cold that is in place and with the even colder sweeping in behind the system the western edge tends to move through faster than is forecast. And the subsidence zone that occurs on the NW flank is going to be very sharp so we shall see. I am still sticking with my updated forecast, but I do have a possible extra 1-2 to 1-3 inches on top of these totals giving a max potential for my map of 5-11" in far eastern zones to 3-8" in the center, and 2-5" in the western most LI and NYC metro area. I "think this should cover it.

Jim I think for the reasons mentioned your are located far enough west where you may be on the fringe of the goods so confidence is low on calling for a WAA in this area. If observations come to fruition late tonight it will be hoisted.

Nice map Frank, spot on! Just makes you sick to see WSW to our south with a blizzard warning for Norfolk. Pretty much sums up our winter thus far lol.

18z RGEM COMING IN HOTTTTTTT WAY WEST!


GFS might be as well! Already looking better aloft.

SoulSingMG wrote:18z RGEM COMING IN HOTTTTTTT


GFS might be as well! Already looking better aloft.

GFS looks like crap.

SoulSingMG wrote:18z RGEM COMING IN HOTTTTTTT


GFS might be as well! Already looking better aloft.

Soul, I admire your optimism. You never want to give up.

But I see our fearless leader thinks otherwise.

Ok Frank, now I need to edit again as I am in central L.I.

Actually, it's not for Long Island. It blows up the jet streak to the NW and keeps a CCB over them longer. Looks like 5"+ from central LI on east.

Armando Salvadore wrote:Nice map Frank, spot on! Just makes you sick to see WSW to our south with a blizzard warning for Norfolk. Pretty much sums up our winter thus far lol.

I'm with Armando. It actually makes me sick to see how close a miss this is for us. if you put a ruler down on The advisories on the NWS page he posted they go straight up from the mid-Atlantic through the eastern half of Jersey then disappear as they approach zone immediate area only to appear again NNE of us defying logic. It's painful. 12-15" ssw of us and ne of us

Oh shoot. I forgot to ask 1190ftalt if it's ok that I post this

Frank_Wx wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:18z RGEM COMING IN HOTTTTTTT


GFS might be as well! Already looking better aloft.

GFS looks like crap.

Mid level improvements? And what about the RGEM?!

RGEM says Hey....

RGEM!!!!!!!!!!!

aiannone wrote:

RGEM says Hey....

THANK YOU. Lol. Jeez, can we get a little excitement around here? Also, has anyone seen the RPM?

SoulSingMG wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:18z RGEM COMING IN HOTTTTTTT


GFS might be as well! Already looking better aloft.

GFS looks like crap.

Mid level improvements? And what about the RGEM?!

Yes. And RGEM just posted.

The GFS is now showing a dual jet streak overhead.

Frank_Wx wrote:Actually, it's not for Long Island. It blows up the jet streak to the NW and keeps a CCB over them longer. Looks like 5"+ from central LI on east.

10:1 ?

I'm using 15:1 ratios for this storm

3K NAM

RGEM snow map...add about 1-2 inches

RGEM at 10:1 ratios

Beat me to it Frank...but only by seconds

12z RGEM for comparison. NAM may be leading the way....

RGEM 4-10" Island wide from City to Montauk,

3K NAM 7-12 Island wide from city to montauk.

more east obviously

BELIEVABLE???

If tonight's SREFS, NAM, and RGEM still show these types of totals then my snow map could bust low. I honestly didn't think the precipitation shield would expand like that. And if it did, I wasn't buying into the heavier snowfall rates.

Nice looking more and more like I may squeeze pit 4 to 6 with ratios. If this comes in like RGEM then could b more if even further west precip shield. I'm with soul never give up until it's too late lol

jmanley32 wrote:Nice looking more and more like I may squeeze pit 4 to 6 with ratios. If this comes in like RGEM then could b more if even further west precip shield. I'm with soul never give up until it's too late lol

Thank you, Jman. We want our Winter Storm Warnings! Nothing in wx erks me more than a WWA.

syosnow94 wrote:RGEM 4-10" Island wide from City to Montauk,

3K NAM 7-12 Island wide from city to montauk.

more east obviously

BELIEVABLE???

Not yet for me personally. The jet streak is impressive, but the low pressure center seems too far S&E. I will say current radar looks pretty nice down south though. Lots of lightning within the convective cells near the Gulf

What time would be start time.? I have to drive in to the city tomorrow around noon?

Look at how much further N&W the VV are on the 18z compared to the 12z:  Youve got -30 to -40 VV reaching into the coast. Jeeze these models have changed their mood more than a 16yr old high school girl.  Madonne!!