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January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event

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Post by Armando Salvadore Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:04 pm

Nice map Frank, spot on! Just makes you sick to see WSW to our south with a blizzard warning for Norfolk. Pretty much sums up our winter thus far lol. January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 23 Screen17
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:41 pm

18z RGEM COMING IN HOTTTTTTT WAY WEST!


GFS might be as well! Already looking better aloft.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:45 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:18z RGEM COMING IN HOTTTTTTT


GFS might be as well! Already looking better aloft.

GFS looks like crap.

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Post by GreyBeard Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:45 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:18z RGEM COMING IN HOTTTTTTT


GFS might be as well! Already looking better aloft.



Soul, I admire your optimism. You never want to give up. Thumbs up

But I see our fearless leader thinks otherwise.

Ok Frank, now I need to edit again as I am in central L.I. Wink


Last edited by GreyBeard on Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:51 pm; edited 3 times in total

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:46 pm

Actually, it's not for Long Island. It blows up the jet streak to the NW and keeps a CCB over them longer. Looks like 5"+ from central LI on east.

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Post by Guest Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:47 pm

@Armando Salvadore wrote:Nice map Frank, spot on! Just makes you sick to see WSW to our south with a blizzard warning for Norfolk. Pretty much sums up our winter thus far lol. January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 23 Screen17

I'm with Armando. It actually makes me sick to see how close a miss this is for us. if you put a ruler down on The advisories on the NWS page he posted they go straight up from the mid-Atlantic through the eastern half of Jersey then disappear as they approach zone immediate area only to appear again NNE of us defying logic. It's painful. 12-15" ssw of us and ne of us

Oh shoot. I forgot to ask 1190ftalt if it's ok that I post this

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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:47 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:18z RGEM COMING IN HOTTTTTTT


GFS might be as well! Already looking better aloft.

GFS looks like crap.

Mid level improvements? And what about the RGEM?!
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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:48 pm

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 23 15874710

RGEM says Hey....
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:50 pm

RGEM!!!!!!!!!!!

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 23 I_nw_EST_2017010618_023.jpg.e5899163b8b5d5e64d393d542ae5a7ad

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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:50 pm

@aiannone wrote:January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 23 15874710

RGEM says Hey....

THANK YOU. Lol. Jeez, can we get a little excitement around here? Also, has anyone seen the RPM?
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:51 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:18z RGEM COMING IN HOTTTTTTT


GFS might be as well! Already looking better aloft.

GFS looks like crap.

Mid level improvements? And what about the RGEM?!

Yes. And RGEM just posted.

The GFS is now showing a dual jet streak overhead.

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Post by Guest Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:51 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Actually, it's not for Long Island. It blows up the jet streak to the NW and keeps a CCB over them longer. Looks like 5"+ from central LI on east.

10:1 ?

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:53 pm

I'm using 15:1 ratios for this storm

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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:54 pm

3K NAM

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 23 Nam3km_asnow_neus_40

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:54 pm

RGEM snow map...add about 1-2 inches

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 23 Rgem_asnow_neus_14

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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:54 pm

RGEM at 10:1 ratios

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 23 Rgem_asnow_neus_14

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:55 pm

Beat me to it Frank...but only by seconds

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:56 pm

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 23 15936410

12z RGEM for comparison. NAM may be leading the way....
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Post by Guest Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:57 pm

RGEM 4-10" Island wide from City to Montauk,

3K NAM 7-12 Island wide from city to montauk.

more east obviously

BELIEVABLE???

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:59 pm

If tonight's SREFS, NAM, and RGEM still show these types of totals then my snow map could bust low. I honestly didn't think the precipitation shield would expand like that. And if it did, I wasn't buying into the heavier snowfall rates.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:01 pm

Nice looking more and more like I may squeeze pit 4 to 6 with ratios. If this comes in like RGEM then could b more if even further west precip shield. I'm with soul never give up until it's too late lol
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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:02 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Nice looking more and more like I may squeeze pit 4 to 6 with ratios. If this comes in like RGEM then could b more if even further west precip shield. I'm with soul never give up until it's too late lol

Thank you, Jman. We want our Winter Storm Warnings! Nothing in wx erks me more than a WWA. Sleep
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:03 pm

syosnow94 wrote:RGEM 4-10" Island wide from City to Montauk,

3K NAM 7-12 Island wide from city to montauk.

more east obviously

BELIEVABLE???

Not yet for me personally. The jet streak is impressive, but the low pressure center seems too far S&E. I will say current radar looks pretty nice down south though. Lots of lightning within the convective cells near the Gulf

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Post by Vinnydula Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:03 pm

What time would be start time.? I have to drive in to the city tomorrow around noon?
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:04 pm

Look at how much further N&W the VV are on the 18z compared to the 12z:  Youve got -30 to -40 VV reaching into the coast. Jeeze these models have changed their mood more than a 16yr old high school girl.  Madonne!!

January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 23 Nam_w714
January 7th-8th Wave 2 Snow Event - Page 23 Nam_w715

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
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WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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