Re: Weather Statistics Thread

by **Math23x7** Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:06 pm

As I mentioned in the Observations thread, The Conservancy managed to measure the additional snowfall. 7.6" today, which makes for 30.2" on the season, which ties 1968-69 for the 58th snowiest season on record.

Of course, I would take 1968-69 over 2016-17 in a heartbeat. Why? The February 1969 snowstorm which gave 22" for Bellerose, which was its biggest snowstorm on record until January 23rd, 2016's 25"

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:31 pm

Todays storm in NYC with the updated total of 7.6 inches of snow makes it tied for the 21st largest storm after March 1 and the 190th storm of 6 inches or more since records have been kept.

This March now becomes the snowiest month of this winter season. This is the second time that has happened in the last 3 years.

24 Largest March 1 thru April
Snowstorms NYC
Rank.Amount..Date
1…….21.0……..March 12-14, 1888
2…….18.1……..March 7-8, 1941
3…….14.5….....March 3-4, 1960
4…….14.5….....March 1-2, 1914
5…….12.0……..March 15-16, 1896
6…….11.8…..…March 19-20, 1958
7…….11.6……..March 18-19, 1956
8…….10.6….....March 13-14, 1993
9…….10.2……..April 3-4, 1915
10….10.0…..….April 13, 1875
11….10.0……...March 2, 1896
12…...9.6……...April 6, 1982
13…...9.4……...Feb,28-March 1, 1949
14…...9.0……...March 22, 1967
15…...9.0……...March 4, 1893
16…...8.6……...March 5, 1981
17…...8.5…..….April 1, 1924
18…...8.3……...March 1-2, 2009
19…...8.0……...March 17-18, 1892
20…...7.7……...March 6-7, 1915
21…..7.6…....March 14, 2017
21…...7.6….……March 6, 1916
23…...7.5….……March 5, 2015
24…...7.3….……March 6-7, 1923

by **docstox12** Wed Mar 15, 2017 7:01 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Todays storm in NYC with the updated total of 7.6 inches of snow makes it tied for the 21st largest storm after March 1 and the 190th storm of 6 inches or more since records have been kept.

This March now becomes the snowiest month of this winter season. This is the second time that has happened in the last 3 years.

24 Largest March 1 thru April
Snowstorms NYC
Rank.Amount..Date
1…….21.0……..March 12-14, 1888
2…….18.1……..March 7-8, 1941
3…….14.5….....March 3-4, 1960
4…….14.5….....March 1-2, 1914
5…….12.0……..March 15-16, 1896
6…….11.8…..…March 19-20, 1958
7…….11.6……..March 18-19, 1956
8…….10.6….....March 13-14, 1993
9…….10.2……..April 3-4, 1915
10….10.0…..….April 13, 1875
11….10.0……...March 2, 1896
12…...9.6……...April 6, 1982
13…...9.4……...Feb,28-March 1, 1949
14…...9.0……...March 22, 1967
15…...9.0……...March 4, 1893
16…...8.6……...March 5, 1981
17…...8.5…..….April 1, 1924
18…...8.3……...March 1-2, 2009
19…...8.0……...March 17-18, 1892
20…...7.7……...March 6-7, 1915
21…..7.6…....March 14, 2017
21…...7.6….……March 6, 1916
23…...7.5….……March 5, 2015
24…...7.3….……March 6-7, 1923

This stat, wonderfully compiled by CP, is a reminder to never write off winter until April 1.After the torch February this year with people walking around in shorts and tee shirts a few days, who would ever think any snow would fall in March at all.Up here in the HV, we had at least 3 nights of single digits, a snowstorm of nearly 5 inches and another of nearly 21.

by **Dtone** Thu Mar 16, 2017 8:33 am

March is actually a below normal month !
Normal high is now around 50, rising to the mid 50s through the rest of the month.
Doesn't look like anything well above that is in sight.

To Date:
Central Park 36.2*, -3.7*
So far March is colder than Dec (38.3), Jan (38), and Feb (41.6)
Likely to break streak of 20 straight above normal months.
so far, 10 night at/below freezing with more to come.
Jan and Feb had only 12 each. Dec had 11.

Elsewhere...

LGA 38.3*, -1.5*
JFK 36.3*, -3.0*
EWR 37.2*, -2.4*

ISP 34.3*, -2.7*

HPN 33.5*, -2.0*
Port Jervis, NY 30.1*, -3.2*

by **Math23x7** Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:00 pm

I took another look and the monthly snow totals for CPK going back 148 year.

This winter had at least 3" of snow every month from December to March, only the 27th time that has happened.

I took on Excel the LOWEST monthly total in those four months. The ones with 3"+ are in bold and the highest is underlined.

1869-70 1.1
1870-71 0.1
1871-72 1.8
1872-73 0.4
1873-74 0.0
1874-75 4.5
1875-76 0.5
1876-77 0.4
1877-78 0.0
1878-79 1.5
1879-80 2.5
1880-81 2.3
1881-82 1.3
1882-83 0.0
1883-84 2.3
1884-85 4.1
1885-86 0.0
1886-87 2.0
1887-88 3.0
1888-89 0.0
1889-90 0.0
1890-91 2.1
1891-92 0.0
1892-93 3.0
1893-94 0.0
1894-95 4.0
1895-96 0.3
1896-97 3.3
1897-98 1.3
1898-99 1.5
1899-00 0.1
1900-01 0.0
1901-02 1.5
1902-03 0.0
1903-04 5.0
1904-05 1.8
1905-06 1.0
1906-07 0.3
1907-08 3.5
1908-09 0.8
1909-10 1.3
1910-11 1.3
1911-12 2.5
1912-13 0.2
1913-14 0.3
1914-15 2.6
1915-16 0.7
1916-17 5.8
1917-18 0.6
1918-19 0.3
1919-20 5.3
1920-21 0.0
1921-22 3.9
1922-23 8.0
1923-24 1.5
1924-25 0.0
1925-26 0.9
1926-27 0.2
1927-28 2.1
1928-29 0.2
1929-30 0.0
1930-31 0.5
1931-32 0.1
1932-33 0.0
1933-34 0.1
1934-35 1.0
1935-36 1.5
1936-37 0.0
1937-38 0.0
1938-39 1.7
1939-40 3.1
1940-41 3.0
1941-42 0.3
1942-43 4.4
1943-44 0.0
1944-45 0.0
1945-46 0.0
1946-47 1.3
1947-48 4.7
1948-49 4.2
1949-50 0.4
1950-51 1.9
1951-52 2.8
1952-53 0.4
1953-54 0.0
1954-55 0.1
1955-56 1.2
1956-57 0.9
1957-58 8.7
1958-59 0.4
1959-60 1.9
1960-61 1.2
1961-62 0.2
1962-63 2.8
1963-64 6.0
1964-65 2.5
1965-66 0.0
1966-67 1.4
1967-68 1.1
1968-69 1.0
1969-70 4.0
1970-71 0.0
1971-72 0.0
1972-73 0.0
1973-74 2.8
1974-75 0.1
1975-76 2.3
1976-77 0.6
1977-78 0.4
1978-79 0.0
1979-80 2.0
1980-81 0.0
1981-82 0.4
1982-83 0.0
1983-84 0.2
1984-85 0.2
1985-86 0.0
1986-87 0.6
1987-88 0.0
1988-89 0.3
1989-90 1.4
1990-91 0.2
1991-92 0.7
1992-93 0.4
1993-94 6.9
1994-95 0.0
1995-96 11.5
1996-97 0.0
1997-98 0.0
1998-99 1.7
1999-00 0.0
2000-01 3.8
2001-02 0.0
2002-03 3.5
2003-04 0.7
2004-05 3.0
2005-06 1.3
2006-07 0.0
2007-08 0.0
2008-09 4.3
2009-10 0.0
2010-11 1.0
2011-12 0.0
2012-13 0.4
2013-14 0.1
2014-15 1.0
2015-16 0.0
2016-17 3.2

Keep in mind that 0.0" includes months that had a trace of snow. I'm counting measurable snow just between December and March. Isn't it something given the overall pattern that this winter is a part of this club. Of course, the 1995-96 minimum snow amount is something else haha.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Mar 18, 2017 8:16 am

I'm tracking how quickly or not the mid to late March climate will melt the current snow pack. I picked a flat spot that has no sun until the afternoon.

I ended the evening on Tuesday the 14th with a high of 26 that day with a snow pack of 21 inches.

By Wednesday (15th) morning even an overnight low of 17, the compression had brought it down to 19.5 inches.

With the high of 24 on Wednesday, little sun and snow showers throughout the day and a Thursday morning low of 20, the snow pack Thursday (16th) probably due more to compression more than anything is 18.8 inches.

After a high of 35 Thursday and a Friday morning low of 11, the snow pack Friday (17th) morning is 17.5 inches.

After a high of 45 Friday and a Saturday morning low of 10, the snow pack Saturday (18th) morning is 15.2 inches.

After a high of 35 Saturday with clouds and snow showers most of the day and a Sunday morning low of 23, Sunday (19th) morning is 15.1 inches.

After a high of 44 Sunday (19th) with sun most of the day and a Monday morning low of 16, the snow pack Monday (20th) morning is 12.6 inches.

After a high of 49 Monday (20th) with sun most of the day and a Tuesday morning low of 32, the snow pack Tuesday (21st) morning is 11.0 inches.

Yesterday 1.6 inches in depth was lost, the day before with equal sunshine on a day 5 degrees colder 2.5 inches. I can only attribute that to the snow continuing to compress down on itself making the LE for the remaining inches more difficult to melt each day. The research continues.

by **docstox12** Sat Mar 18, 2017 8:20 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I'm tracking how quickly or not the mid to late March climate will melt the current snow pack. I picked a flat spot that has no sun until the afternoon.

I ended the evening on Tuesday the 14th with a snow pack of 21 inches.

By Wednesday morning even with frigid overnight temps near 10 the compression had brought it down to 19.5 inches.

With the high of 22 on Wednesday, little sun and snow showers throughout the day the snow pack Thursday morning was 18.8, probably mostly compression more than anything.

After a high of 35 Thursday the snow pack Friday morning was 17.5 inches.

After a high of 45 Friday the snow pack Saturday morning is down to 15.2 inches.

It's standing up pretty well considering the time of year and sun angle. I'm hoping to enter April with the lawn at least still covered. That's my kind of March.

I'll be tracking this every day so people that like to watch paint dry can also follow this. I find it interesting at least, which says a lot about me.

I'm thinking that with next weeks colder temps at the end of the week that snow in April still being around may be possible CP.We might even get a small storm late march to add a little to the snowpack.With this storm and that stretch of 23? days a while ago, we are seeing a lot more snowpack days up here than last years disaster.Certainly this March will run colder than average and perhaps break that ghastly 20 month above normal temperature streak.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Mar 18, 2017 9:40 am

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:20 am

Delete

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Mar 24, 2017 8:58 am

It looks pretty certain that March will break the awful 20 consecutive month above normal streak in almost every location. As of March 23rd all reporting stations are anywhere from -1.7 for the month at LGA to -5.6 at Binghamton. Here's the local rundown so far this month.

NYC.................-4.1
LGA.................-1.7
JFK..................-3.3
Islip.................-3.2
Bridgeport........-2.4
Newark.............-3.1
Poughkeepsie....-4.7
Binghamton......-5.6
Albany.............-3.9
Hartford...........-4.5
Scranton..........-3.7
Allentown.........-2.4
Trenton............-3.0
Atlantic City......-2.2

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Mar 25, 2017 8:05 am

Below is the snow cover of 1 inch or more for the season, which should will end after today. Despite a top ten warmest December through February it stands at 85 days for the season, respectable considering the extremely mild January and warmest February on record.

..............Eastern Orange County Winter 2016/17
................Days with snowpack and total snow
.........................................Consecutive......Snowfall
Begin date........End Date.....Days 1" cover....during period
20-Nov-16.......26-Nov-16.........6...................4.0
05-Dec-16.......26-Dec-16........21..................9.6
29-Dec-16.......31-Dec-16..........2..................1.7
06-Jan-17........12-Jan-17..........6..................2.7
14-Jan-17........16-Jan-17..........2..................1.0
23-Jan-17........22-Feb-17.........30................26.0
10-Mar-17........28-Mar-17.........18................25.7

...............................Totals......85................70.7

by **Math23x7** Sun Mar 26, 2017 6:42 pm

I originally posted this in the March Observations thread but I feel that this is more appropriate for this thread:

One thing I have come to realize is that while some springs will be warmer than others, EVERY spring will have this dreary, chilly kind of weather at some point. Take April 2002, for example. It was one of the warmest Aprils on record. Yet, a majority of days that month were below average (relative to 1981-2010). The average temperature anomaly from April 1st-12th AND April 20th-30th was about -2.5. Now, the average temperature anomaly from April 13th-19th was...... +21.7! That's right, twenty-one point seven degrees above average. And this included an official heat wave. Here are the temperature stats for the month which include (from left to right) Date, High, Low, Anomaly relative to 1981-2010:

1 60 45 4.5
2 56 39 -0.5
3 77 42 11
4 51 37 -5
5 45 32 -10.5
6 47 31 -11
7 48 30 -11
8 59 41 0
9 76 52 13
10 67 48 6.5
11 60 46 1.5
12 57 44 -1.5
13 73 55 12
14 75 56 13
15 82 59 17.5
16 92 69 27
17 96 74 31.5
18 91 76 29.5
19 89 63 21.5
20 68 55 7
21 57 49 -2
22 55 42 -7
23 56 39 -8
24 62 40 -5
25 52 43 -9
26 60 42 -5.5
27 64 40 -4.5
28 56 48 -5.5
29 54 43 -9
30 60 41 -7

Also, the following month had some chilly airmasses, including one where it snowed in the Albany region on 5/18/02.

And April 2010 was the warmest April on record, but it too was skewed by unseasonal warmth during one stretch. The five day stretch from the 25th to 29th was flatout miserable featured featured rain at the start followed by a cold north wind.

As a matter of fact, that 2010 spring was the warmest meteorological spring on record but had other chilly periods. Late March had a chilly/damp period which lasted several days and May had a gloomy five day stretch from May 9th to 13th (the 12th had a HIGH temperature of 48 degrees with a cold/northeast wind).

April 2002: https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-1BB61AE6-B542-4B37-8E61-7486DF2D08AF.pdf
May 2002: https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-B4FCE6DF-BA10-4210-9D5F-288803313976.pdf
March 2010: https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-F546BB96-7EFD-43EB-A95F-65EA3CECA1BA.pdf
April 2010: https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-5ADAE0A6-340A-4F2A-A7F7-56E0F942C2FD.pdf
May 2010: https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-805DCCE7-C3DA-40D4-99B0-E188751AA3CA.pdf
April: CPK info: http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/Almanacs/nyc/nycapr.pdf
Records: http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldmonths.pdf

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:45 am

Math23x7 wrote:I originally posted this in the March Observations thread but I feel that this is more appropriate for this thread:

One thing I have come to realize is that while some springs will be warmer than others, EVERY spring will have this dreary, chilly kind of weather at some point. Take April 2002, for example. It was one of the warmest Aprils on record. Yet, a majority of days that month were below average (relative to 1981-2010). The average temperature anomaly from April 1st-12th AND April 20th-30th was about -2.5. Now, the average temperature anomaly from April 13th-19th was...... +21.7! That's right, twenty-one point seven degrees above average. And this included an official heat wave. Here are the temperature stats for the month which include (from left to right) Date, High, Low, Anomaly relative to 1981-2010:

1 60 45 4.5
2 56 39 -0.5
3 77 42 11
4 51 37 -5
5 45 32 -10.5
6 47 31 -11
7 48 30 -11
8 59 41 0
9 76 52 13
10 67 48 6.5
11 60 46 1.5
12 57 44 -1.5
13 73 55 12
14 75 56 13
15 82 59 17.5
16 92 69 27
17 96 74 31.5
18 91 76 29.5
19 89 63 21.5
20 68 55 7
21 57 49 -2
22 55 42 -7
23 56 39 -8
24 62 40 -5
25 52 43 -9
26 60 42 -5.5
27 64 40 -4.5
28 56 48 -5.5
29 54 43 -9
30 60 41 -7

Also, the following month had some chilly airmasses, including one where it snowed in the Albany region on 5/18/02.

And April 2010 was the warmest April on record, but it too was skewed by unseasonal warmth during one stretch. The five day stretch from the 25th to 29th was flatout miserable featured featured rain at the start followed by a cold north wind.

As a matter of fact, that 2010 spring was the warmest meteorological spring on record but had other chilly periods. Late March had a chilly/damp period which lasted several days and May had a gloomy five day stretch from May 9th to 13th (the 12th had a HIGH temperature of 48 degrees with a cold/northeast wind).

April 2002: https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-1BB61AE6-B542-4B37-8E61-7486DF2D08AF.pdf
May 2002: https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-B4FCE6DF-BA10-4210-9D5F-288803313976.pdf
March 2010: https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-F546BB96-7EFD-43EB-A95F-65EA3CECA1BA.pdf
April 2010: https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-5ADAE0A6-340A-4F2A-A7F7-56E0F942C2FD.pdf
May 2010: https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-805DCCE7-C3DA-40D4-99B0-E188751AA3CA.pdf
April: CPK info: http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/Almanacs/nyc/nycapr.pdf
Records: http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldmonths.pdf

Very interesting April 2002 Mike. That was a ridiculous above normal stretch to place that month as one of the warmest all time Aprils. 3 days above 90 in mid April, frightening when you consider the average mid April high in NYC is 61-62. When you talk about extremes in one month that was a textbook case.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Mar 28, 2017 8:35 am

UPDATED - March 28, 2017

Below I tracked the daily progress of how quickly the 21 inch snow pack that stood at the end of the evening of Tuesday March 14th would stand up to the mid to late March sun. I picked a flat spot that has no sun until the afternoon. With no additional measurable snow after the 14th it took 15 days to reduce the 21 inch snow cover to less than an inch over less than 50% of the landscape.

It was a flawed study in many respects but I did find it more interesting than watching paint dry but not by a wide margin. I noted several things during the period as noted below.

The day of the greatest loss in depth was Tuesday the 21st when the high hit 56 and the next days morning low was 29. 3.5 inches of snow was lost during that 24 hour period. It was the warmest day during the period so perfectly understandable.

From 10 pm Tuesday night the 14th, to 8 am Wednesday morning the 15th with temperatures in the teens and snow showers throughout the night the snow compressed and settled overnight from 21.0 to 19.5 inches. It may have been even a little more as the snow showers most likely added a few tenths of an inch overnight but like the conservancy I did not add that to my snow totals.

The least amount of snow depth lost on a day when there was no additional snow was on Wednesday the 22nd when the high hit only 29 but with sun and high winds most of the day and the next morning low of 10 only 0.7 inches of depth was lost that day, from 7.5 to 6.8 inches.

Also of note the day after the storm on the 15th, when the high only reached 24 and there was virtually no sun during the day and scattered snow showers throughout the day with the next days morning low of 20 the snow depth decreased from 19.5 to 18.8 inches a similar 0.7 inch loss as was seen on the 22nd. Since snow showers may have also added several tenths of an inch during the day most likely the loss that day was due more to additional compression and settling than melting.

On Saturday the 18th with clouds and snow showers most of the day and a high of 35 and a Sunday morning low of 23 the depth only went down 0.1 inches from 15.2 to 15.1. I was gone during most of the day and evening so I can only assume the snow showers during the afternoon added several tenths of an inch to the snowpack even though nothing stuck on paved surfaces.

The day by day progress

I ended the evening on Tuesday the 14th with a high of 26 that day with a snow pack of 21 inches.

By Wednesday (15th) morning, with an overnight low of 17, the compression had brought it down to 19.5 inches.

With the high of 24 on Wednesday (15th), little sun and snow showers throughout the day and a Thursday morning low of 20, the snow pack Thursday (16th) morning, probably due more to compression than anything is 18.8 inches.

After a high of 35 Thursday (16th) and a Friday morning low of 11, the snow pack Friday (17th) morning is 17.5 inches.

After a high of 45 Friday (17th) and a Saturday morning low of 10, the snow pack Saturday (18th) morning is 15.2 inches.

After a high of 35 Saturday (18th) with clouds and snow showers most of the day and a Sunday morning low of 23, Sunday (19th) morning is 15.1 inches.

After a high of 44 Sunday (19th) with sun most of the day and a Monday morning low of 16, the snow pack Monday (20th) morning is 12.6 inches.

After a high of 49 Monday (20th) with sun most of the day and a Tuesday morning low of 32, the snow pack Tuesday (21st) morning is 11.0 inches.

After a high of 56 Tuesday (21st) with sun most of the day and a Wednesday morning low of 29, the snow pack Wednesday (22nd) morning is 7.5 inches.

After an afternoon high of 29 Wednesday (22nd) with sun and high winds most of the day and an impressive Thursday morning low of 10, the snow pack Thursday (23rd) morning is 6.8 inches.

After an afternoon high of 41 Thursday (23rd) with sun most of the day and a Friday morning low of 21, the snow pack Friday (24th) morning is 6.0 inches.

After an afternoon high of 47 Friday (24th) with clouds most of the day and a little rain and a Saturday morning low of 33, the snow pack Saturday (25th) morning is down to 4.7 inches.

After an afternoon high of 42 Saturday (25th) with clouds and some drizzle and light rain most of the day and a Sunday morning low of 31, the snow pack Sunday (26th) morning is down to 3.3 inches.

After an afternoon high of only 36 Sunday (26th) with clouds and and light rain most of the day and a Monday morning low of 33, the snow pack Monday (27th) morning is down to 2.5 inches.

After an afternoon high of 46 Monday (27th) with clouds and and light rain at times through the day and a Tuesday morning low of 36, the snow pack Tuesday (28th) morning is down to 1.2 inches and will end the 18 consecutive days of snow pack for the month after today and 85 days for the season.

Yesterday 1.3 inches in snow depth was lost, with the depth now at 1.2 inches in the flat areas that receive 1/2 sun and 1/2 shade and about 50% total coverage the winter barring any April snows will end with 85 days of snow cover, and 18 consecutive days this March.

by **amugs** Tue Mar 28, 2017 9:08 am

Very detailed and great work there CP and thanks for the PBP - better than Phil Rizzuto and the Yankees and Money Store (never understood that!)

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Mar 28, 2017 9:13 am

amugs wrote:Very detailed and great work there CP and thanks for the PBP - better than Phil Rizzuto and the Yankees and Money Store (never understood that!)

Me neither, great memory though. Just thinking of Phil doing games cracks me up.

BTW I also loved the Solar thread, I'm still trying to digest it all and will reread probably several times.

by **billg315** Tue Mar 28, 2017 4:51 pm

So with three days to go, is this the month that snaps the back of the "above normal monthly temps" streak?

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Mar 28, 2017 8:03 pm

billg315 wrote:So with three days to go, is this the month that snaps the back of the "above normal monthly temps" streak?

Put it in the book billg,it's signed sealed and delivered. The 20 month above normal streak will finally come to an end at midnight on Friday. Hallelujah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:22 am

Today with less than 50% coverage marks the end of the current snow cover which lasted 18 days, a good stretch for mid to late March. If there is no additional snow this season the season will end with 85 days of snow coverage of 1 inch or more, a respectable number in a top ten warmest winter.

..............Eastern Orange County Winter 2016/17
................Days with snowpack and total snow
.........................................Consecutive......Snowfall
Begin date........End Date.....Days 1" cover....during period
20-Nov-16.......26-Nov-16...........6...................4.0
05-Dec-16.......26-Dec-16..........21..................9.6
29-Dec-16.......31-Dec-16............2..................1.7
06-Jan-17........12-Jan-17............6..................2.7
14-Jan-17........16-Jan-17............2..................1.0
23-Jan-17........22-Feb-17..........30................26.0
10-Mar-17........28-Mar-17..........18................25.7

..........................Totals.............85...............70.7

by **Math23x7** Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:32 pm

So the high/low so far is 43/38. Barring any changes, March 2017 will end up 3.3 degrees below the 1981-2010 average that the NWS puts out. Of course, using the 1871-1900 averages, the anomaly is +2.5. The last March to not be above the 1871-1900 March mean was 1984 (which was average) and the last March to be below the 1871-1900 mean was 1960.

And this marks the seventh time March ends up colder than February. More specifically, it was 2.4 degrees colder than February. I posted these before but here were the six Marches that were colder than February, only this time with the temperature difference.

1877: -1.2
1880: -0.7
1890: -2.3
1891: -0.7
1960: -3.0
1984: -3.9

This is not as much as a knock on how cold it was this March as it is an indictment on how warm it was in February.

by **Math23x7** Fri Mar 31, 2017 10:31 pm

With 1.42" of rain today as of 10 PM, March is now at 5.16" which is at 0.80" above average. Of course, more will be added in the next three hours (Keep in mind that during Daylight Savings Time, the day ends for the NWS at 1 AM rather than at 12 AM. So any rain that falls tonight between midnight and 1 AM will count towards March.)

When you take today's rain just as it is, 2017 precipitation (relative to 1981-2010) is now at a 1.37" surplus (12.47", above the 11.10" average). Of course, 2015 and 2016 were relatively dry bringing 40.97" and 42.17", respectively, well below the 49.94" average. If several more rainstorms happen over the next couple of weeks (which JB calls "bowling balls") then I don't think there would be any lingering concerns over a potential northeast drought.

by **Math23x7** Wed Nov 01, 2017 5:41 pm

Last winter, I posted a comparison between the seasonal snow totals of NYC and Beantown, showing how rare NYC wins out. Here is another comparison, this time with a city that beats out NYC every snow season: Montreal. I went the check the seasonal snowfall totals for this location and they go back to the 1888-89 season. And since the totals are in centimeters, I converted them to inches. Here are the side-by-side comparison followed by the difference in totals:

Seasonal__MON__NYC___Diff.
1888-89__124.6__16.5__108.1
1889-90__102.8__24.3___78.5
1890-91__107.2__28.8___78.4
1891-92__135.2__25.4__109.8
1892-93___93.3__49.7___43.6
1893-94___83.2__36.1___47.1
1894-95___77.3__27.0___50.3
1895-96__115.2__46.3___68.9
1896-97___85.0__43.6___41.4
1897-98__169.4__21.1__148.3
1898-99__116.5__55.9___60.6
1899-00__142.2__13.4__128.8
1900-01__140.0___9.1__130.9
1901-02__119.4__30.0___89.4
1902-03__105.7__28.7___77.0
1903-04__127.8__32.2___95.6
1904-05__130.4__48.1___82.3
1905-06__100.5__20.0___80.5
1906-07__149.7__53.2___96.5
1907-08__151.1__33.4__117.7
1908-09__138.5__20.3__118.2
1909-10___97.4__27.2___70.2
1910-11__121.5__25.2___96.3
1911-12__106.3__29.5___76.8
1912-13__102.8__15.3___87.5
1913-14__105.9__40.5___65.4
1914-15___86.7__28.8___57.9
1915-16__103.4__50.7___52.7
1916-17__105.4__50.7___54.7
1917-18__129.6__34.5___95.1
1918-19__104.8___3.8__101.0
1919-20__115.7__47.6___68.1
1920-21___63.1__18.6___44.5
1921-22___89.6__27.8___61.8
1922-23___92.4__60.4___32.0
1923-24__131.7__27.5__104.2
1924-25___99.8__29.6___70.2
1925-26__135.7__32.4__103.3
1926-27__111.5__22.3___89.2
1927-28__127.6__14.5__113.1
1928-29__103.0__13.8___89.2
1929-30__101.5__13.6___87.9
1930-31___81.8__11.6___70.2
1931-32__116.4___5.3__111.1
1932-33___90.2__27.0___63.2
1933-34__118.7__52.0___66.7
1934-35___83.7__33.8___49.9
1935-36___97.9__33.2___64.7
1936-37__108.5__15.6___92.9
1937-38___99.0__15.1___83.9
1938-39__120.6__37.3___83.3
1939-40___86.6__25.7___60.9
1940-41___88.0__39.0___49.0
1941-42___99.1__11.3___87.8
1942-43__123.7__29.5___94.2
1943-44___81.0__23.8___57.2
1944-45___95.9__27.1___68.8
1945-46___82.9__31.4___51.5
1946-47__139.3__30.6__108.7
1947-48___72.1__63.2____8.9
1948-49___77.9__46.6___31.3
1949-50__110.8__13.8___97.0
1950-51___85.9__11.6___74.3
1951-52__118.1__19.7___98.4
1952-53___60.4__15.1___45.3
1953-54__117.0__15.8__101.2
1954-55__122.0__11.5__110.5
1955-56___86.9__33.5___53.4
1956-57___61.5__21.9___39.6
1957-58__119.1__44.7___74.4
1958-59__107.2__13.0___94.2
1959-60__124.8__39.2___85.6
1960-61___79.4__54.7___24.7
1961-62__110.6__18.1___92.5
1962-63__125.0__16.3__108.7
1963-64___56.8__44.7___12.1
1964-65___70.0__24.4___45.6
1965-66__101.5__21.4___80.1
1966-67___74.3__51.5___22.8
1967-68___52.8__19.5___33.3
1968-69___90.9__30.2___60.7
1969-70___77.8__25.6___52.2
1970-71__150.9__15.5__135.4
1971-72__103.6__22.9___80.7
1972-73__102.1___2.8___99.3
1973-74___80.7__23.5___57.2
1974-75___81.7__13.1___68.6
1975-76__125.2__17.3__107.9
1976-77___78.4__24.5___53.9
1977-78___88.7__50.7___38.0
1978-79___92.1__29.4___62.7
1979-80___36.6__12.8___23.8
1980-81___55.2__19.4___35.8
1981-82___85.4__24.6___60.8
1982-83___47.2__27.2___20.0
1983-84___93.8__25.4___68.4
1984-85___93.5__24.1___69.4
1985-86___80.0__13.0___67.0
1986-87___79.2__23.1___56.1
1987-88___65.6__19.1___46.5
1988-89___80.7___8.1___72.6
1989-90___78.1__13.4___64.7
1990-91___77.6__24.9___52.7
1991-92___81.3__12.6___68.7
1992-93___99.9__24.5___75.4
1993-94__102.9__53.4___49.5
1994-95___73.0__11.8___61.2
1995-96___84.3__75.6____8.7
1996-97__120.2__10.0__110.2
1997-98___97.0___5.5___91.5
1998-99___63.5__12.7___50.8
1999-00___88.0__16.3___71.7
2000-01__110.7__35.0___75.7
2001-02___68.3___3.5___64.8
2002-03___72.4__49.3___23.1
2003-04___60.5__42.6___17.9
2004-05___62.0__41.0___21.0
2005-06___68.4__40.0___28.4
2006-07___84.5__12.4___72.1
2007-08__146.2__11.9__134.3
2008-09___87.8__27.6___60.2
2009-10___74.5__51.4___23.1
2010-11___92.3__61.9___30.4
2011-12___51.3___7.4___43.9
2012-13___96.0__26.1___69.9
2013-14___81.8__57.4___24.4
2014-15___80.2__50.3___29.9
2015-16___66.9__32.8___34.1
2016-17___92.6__30.2___62.4

Some interesting observations:

1) The lowest difference between the two is 1995-96. Montreal had 84.3" while NYC had 75.6". Of course, CP has brought the possible undercounts that winter and had that been the case and had they been measured correctly, NYC would have actually beaten out Montreal that winter.

2) The average seasonal snow total for Montreal has decreased dramatically. From 1888-89 to 1975-76 (88 years), there were 52 instances of 100"+ snowfall. Since then (41 years), only 4 instances of 100"+ snowfall, depressing to say the least

Back in January 2009, my family went to Montreal for a visit and we was brutally cold (-15* F with wind chills -30* F on the 16th) and the snow banks were high. As it turns out, the 2008-09 seasonal snow total was 87.8", which pales in comparison with old-time winters...

by **docstox12** Sun Nov 26, 2017 1:21 pm

For a school project in science in 1963, I kept records for December of that year with a maximum-minimum mercury thermometer,rain gauge, barometer and a yardstick for snow.Visibilities and wind speeds I got from the local tv and radio stations.Here is what I have, all for Fort Lee NJ:

Highest temp-52 degrees Dec 8
Lowest temp-8 degrees Dec's 21 and 31
Cloudiest days-Dec's 2,3,5,6,8,10,12,13,14,18,23,25,27
Average visibility-11 miles
Highest visibility-Unlimited Dec 16, 21
Lowest visibility-0 Dec 23
Average cloud type-Stratus
Average wind direction-NW
Average wind speed-16 MPH
Highest wind speed-40 mPH Dec 15
Lowest wind speed-calm Dec 2,5,7,30
Average barometer-30.15
Highest barometer-30.78 Dec 31
Lowest barometer-29.87 Dec 9
Total precipitation-5.00 inches
Total snowfall-17.98 inches
Average monthly temperature- 28.7 degree

The event of note that month was the December 23 snowstorm that gave Fort Lee it's fifth consecutive White Christmas.On December 22 , the temperature hit a high of 33 degrees and a low of 17.Increasing clouds with a north wind prevailed.Barometer was 30.30 and steady.
On Dec. 23rd, the day started off cloudy.High temperature was 28 degrees and the low recorded was 22.Snow began to fall around 2:30 PM. A NE wind was picking up in velocity.The falling barometer at that point was 30.31.The event put nearly 10 inches of fresh snow on the ground just in time for Christmas and my vacation from school,lol.In fact, that very day of Dec 23 I was walking home in the snow the last day of school before the Christmas Vacation.Oh joy , oh rapture, a snowaholic's dream come true LOL!

by **Math23x7** Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:00 pm

Based on the 0-9 decadal system, with the snow we had yesterday, the 2010s has overtaken the 1910s for the six snowiest decade on record. Here is where it now stands:

1890s: 352.3"
1870s: 335.1"
1940s: 326.7"
1880s: 324.8"
1960s: 310.5"
2010s: 309.7"
1910s: 305.2"
1900s: 298.1"
1920s: 292.0"
2000s: 292.0"
1930s: 241.3"
1990s: 238.3"
1970s: 222.0"
1950s: 215.3"
1980s: 199.4"

by **Math23x7** Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:00 pm

If no snow fell between now and the end of 2020 (God forbid!)
October: 0.1” (up from 0” from the 1981-2010 average)
November: 0.3” (same as 1981-2010 average)
December: 4.7” (down from 4.8” from the 1981-2010 average)
January: 8.6” (up from 7.0” from the 1981-2010 average)
February: 9.9” (up from 9.0” from the 1981-2010 average)
March: 4.2” (up from 3.9” from the 1981-2010 average)
April: 0.2” (down from 0.6” from the 1981-2010 average)

Seasonal Average: 28.0” (up from 25.8” from the 1981-2010 average)

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:06 pm

Math23x7 wrote:If no snow fell between now and the end of 2020 (God forbid!)
October: 0.1” (up from 0” from the 1981-2010 average)
November: 0.3” (same as 1981-2010 average)
December: 4.7” (down from 4.8” from the 1981-2010 average)
January: 8.6” (up from 7.0” from the 1981-2010 average)
February: 9.9” (up from 9.0” from the 1981-2010 average)
March: 4.2” (up from 3.9” from the 1981-2010 average)
April: 0.2” (down from 0.6” from the 1981-2010 average)

Seasonal Average: 28.0” (up from 25.8” from the 1981-2010 average)

Great Post Mike, I was actually going to post the same thing myself tonight. My monthly averages are all the same as yours except I came up with 27.9" for the seasonal average if as you say God forbid it doesn't snow for the next three years, I'm sure it's a rounding thing.

Hoping the 1991-2020 average doesn't end up being 29.9 that will frustrate me to no end.

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