Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[nutleyblizzard]

Jet retraction -> Wave break -> MJO propagation into west pacific (?)->  -NPO = watching for an east coast storm threat around the 28th-3/5. While cold air will be an issue, it was brought to my attention about march of 1999 and 1984 both winters were rather lackluster, however come march, two formidable snow events. Most likely heavy wet snow too because now you're dealing with changing wavelengths, seasonal jet, sun angle, etc,. Think i'm liking that period.

Ah yes March 5th. The anniversary of the infamous bust of 2001. Perhaps mother nature can return the favor by recreating the storm and directly hit us this time with a Frankzilla.

[Isotherm]

Armando, I have researched those years and both featured major strat warming events at the end of Feb. I continue to think we will see another period of favorability insofar as high latitude blocking. The first zonal reversal did induce NAM reversal the first half of Feb. Not expecting a severe pattern, but sufficient for another snow event down the road.

[Armando Salvadore]

Armando, I have researched those years and both featured major strat warming events at the end of Feb. I continue to think we will see another period of favorability insofar as high latitude blocking. The first zonal reversal did induce NAM reversal the first half of Feb. Not expecting a severe pattern, but sufficient for another snow event down the road.

Bingo. Music to my ears. Didn't know that those years featured a SSW at the end of Feb, but wow quite the parallels being derived. Thanks Tom, going to research those years myself. Now if we can allow timing, this time get on our side, we can cash in on possibly one or maybe two more events before this is all said and done with.

[Math23x7]

This is something I posted in another weather forum a couple of days ago, but I think it is worth mentioning here:

As has been pointed out, with the strongly positive QBO and the positive EPO, the winter has not been favorable for sustained cold in the east. And to be honest, last autumn, I did not feel as optimistic about the coming winter as I had in prior autumns so I set my expectations low. Despite this, I have seen some pretty decent snow events. Many of them are ~one inchers but three events come to mind which I liked: 12/17, 1/7, and 2/9. I have asked myself how I feel about this winter. If, hypothetically, we got no more snow the rest of the winter, if the 50s forecasted for President's Day verify and continue for the next several weeks or if we have either a cold/dry or warm/wet pattern going forward, will I be annoyed? Yes. But in the grand scheme of things, given the crappy pattern, the fact that I have 23.3" of snow where I am, including two snow events that produced 6.8" and 10" makes this a great winter. I was expecting 20" of snow in Central Park this winter. It is currently at 20.5". And think about this, from 1979-80 to 1991-92, NYC averaged 19.1" of snow. If this type of winter happened during that time, it would be considered to be amazing! Just me two cents worth.

Given that seven out of the past eight snow seasons finished above the 1981-2010 average of 25.1" (and the one that did not had the big October snowstorm) and four of them had 50"+, this winter is, of course, relatively uneventful. But if this type of winter occurred in, let's say, 1991-92, NYC snow lovers would have been satisfied. As I mentioned above, the average during those 13 years was under 20." Good thing much of that happened before I was born and that I was too young to remember the rest of it. I can't imagine how I would deal with such a snow drought.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

This is something I posted in another weather forum a couple of days ago, but I think it is worth mentioning here:

As has been pointed out, with the strongly positive QBO and the positive EPO, the winter has not been favorable for sustained cold in the east. And to be honest, last autumn, I did not feel as optimistic about the coming winter as I had in prior autumns so I set my expectations low. Despite this, I have seen some pretty decent snow events. Many of them are ~one inchers but three events come to mind which I liked: 12/17, 1/7, and 2/9. I have asked myself how I feel about this winter. If, hypothetically, we got no more snow the rest of the winter, if the 50s forecasted for President's Day verify and continue for the next several weeks or if we have either a cold/dry or warm/wet pattern going forward, will I be annoyed? Yes. But in the grand scheme of things, given the crappy pattern, the fact that I have 23.3" of snow where I am, including two snow events that produced 6.8" and 10" makes this a great winter. I was expecting 20" of snow in Central Park this winter. It is currently at 20.5". And think about this, from 1979-80 to 1991-92, NYC averaged 19.1" of snow. If this type of winter happened during that time, it would be considered to be amazing! Just me two cents worth.

Given that seven out of the past eight snow seasons finished above the 1981-2010 average of 25.1" (and the one that did not had the big October snowstorm) and four of them had 50"+, this winter is, of course, relatively uneventful.  But if this type of winter occurred in, let's say, 1991-92, NYC snow lovers would have been satisfied.  As I mentioned above, the average during those 13 years was under 20."  Good thing much of that happened before I was born and that I was too young to remember the rest of it.  I can't imagine how I would deal with such a snow drought.

Good post Math but update those 30 year averages, you have the numbers in Excel so the calculation is simple. January 1981- December 2010 the average in Central Park is 25.8 or 25.9 inches, depending on how you round. THE NWS published the 25.1 initially and I hounded them for two months until they finally published the correct numbers in March 2014. A lot of web sites still have the incorrect 25.1 on them. Didn't mean to distract from your post but I guess I did. Repost your piece again below this without my comments so this doesn't distract from your posting.

[Dtone]

This is something I posted in another weather forum a couple of days ago, but I think it is worth mentioning here:

As has been pointed out, with the strongly positive QBO and the positive EPO, the winter has not been favorable for sustained cold in the east. And to be honest, last autumn, I did not feel as optimistic about the coming winter as I had in prior autumns so I set my expectations low. Despite this, I have seen some pretty decent snow events. Many of them are ~one inchers but three events come to mind which I liked: 12/17, 1/7, and 2/9. I have asked myself how I feel about this winter. If, hypothetically, we got no more snow the rest of the winter, if the 50s forecasted for President's Day verify and continue for the next several weeks or if we have either a cold/dry or warm/wet pattern going forward, will I be annoyed? Yes. But in the grand scheme of things, given the crappy pattern, the fact that I have 23.3" of snow where I am, including two snow events that produced 6.8" and 10" makes this a great winter. I was expecting 20" of snow in Central Park this winter. It is currently at 20.5". And think about this, from 1979-80 to 1991-92, NYC averaged 19.1" of snow. If this type of winter happened during that time, it would be considered to be amazing! Just me two cents worth.

Given that seven out of the past eight snow seasons finished above the 1981-2010 average of 25.1" (and the one that did not had the big October snowstorm) and four of them had 50"+, this winter is, of course, relatively uneventful.  But if this type of winter occurred in, let's say, 1991-92, NYC snow lovers would have been satisfied.  As I mentioned above, the average during those 13 years was under 20."  Good thing much of that happened before I was born and that I was too young to remember the rest of it.  I can't imagine how I would deal with such a snow drought.

Normal is all relative..I think it was just what ppl knew so that was the normal. 20" blizzards..or even a foot of snow, just didn't enter the mind as plausible in the city on a regular basis. By the late 90s I just didn't see NYC as a particularly snowy place to begin with b/c that was my experience (with a few exceptions..and the wealth of info now wasn't easily available to broaden my perspective)

Events like '96 I saw as freak events that I didn't expect to see again...hope for, yes.
But it made the 2000's all the more amazing. Like hitting the lotto over and over again.

[Frank_Wx]

While the next 10-12 days look above normal, guidance is hinting at a return to wintry weather the very end of this month into March. Looks like the Pacific will turn favorable again. Most likely, it will be a transient period of wintry weather where we have to hope we take advantage of the cold air. More details to come this weekend regarding the end of month pattern change.

[sroc4]

While the next 10-12 days look above normal, guidance is hinting at a return to wintry weather the very end of this month into March. Looks like the Pacific will turn favorable again. Most likely, it will be a transient period of wintry weather where we have to hope we take advantage of the cold air. More details to come this weekend regarding the end of month pattern change.

Just a quick addition to this Frank and all.  The MJO is looking very intruiging beyond the 19th-20th time frame.  Once again, as has been the case multiple times this winter, there is a fork in the road for which the euro takes one road, and the GEFS take the other.  Here is the MJO forecasts for both.   The euro wants to take it into phases 1/2; whereas, the GEFS want to recycle it into 7/8.  This tells us what?  That LR modeling and the LR discussion is going to change several times until modeling picks up on what really transpires.  As far as my recollection the Euro has led the way all season in the LR MJO forecasting with the exception of the first week of Feb where it came out in phases 4-5-6 which the GEFS was forecasting ahead of the euro in the LR.  We shall see what transpires here over the next 3-5days or so.   Also the changes the current MJO wave is stimulating up in the strat which Isotherm so eloquently pointed out, expect at least one more period, albeit likely transient as has been the case all winter, for winter storms.  But this is not anything new as this was already pointed out by Isotherm and Armando in their prev discussions.   Take this next 7-10days of tranquial boring weather to catch up on stuff around the house, or spend time with family, because we will likely be tracking something wintery towards the Month into early March.  Will it work out In our back yards??  Well keep your expectations in check for now, but if the euro is correct and we get a pulse out into 1/2 there is a high likelihood of a winter storm somewhere in the NE. Even out into 7 or 8 we can still see a system develop.  

[sroc4]

Oh and the SOI has begun to crash. "cattle prod" to the atmosphere.

[weatherwatchermom]

While the next 10-12 days look above normal, guidance is hinting at a return to wintry weather the very end of this month into March. Looks like the Pacific will turn favorable again. Most likely, it will be a transient period of wintry weather where we have to hope we take advantage of the cold air. More details to come this weekend regarding the end of month pattern change.

Just a quick addition to this Frank and all.  The MJO is looking very intruiging beyond the 19th-20th time frame.  Once again, as has been the case multiple times this winter, there is a fork in the road for which the euro takes one road, and the GEFS take the other.  Here is the MJO forecasts for both.   The euro wants to take it into phases 1/2; whereas, the GEFS want to recycle it into 7/8.  This tells us what?  That LR modeling and the LR discussion is going to change several times until modeling picks up on what really transpires.  As far as my recollection the Euro has led the way all season in the LR MJO forecasting with the exception of the first week of Feb where it came out in phases 4-5-6 which the GEFS was forecasting ahead of the euro in the LR.  We shall see what transpires here over the next 3-5days or so.    Also the changes the current MJO wave is stimulating up in the strat which Isotherm so eloquently pointed out, expect at least one more period, albeit likely transient as has been the case all winter, for winter storms.  But this is not anything new as this was already pointed out by Isotherm and Armando in their prev discussions.   Take this next 7-10days of tranquial boring weather to catch up on stuff around the house, or spend time with family, because we will likely be tracking something wintery towards the Month into early March.  Will it work out In our back yards??  Well keep your expectations in check for now, but if the euro is correct and we get a pulse out into 1/2 there is a high likelihood of a winter storm somewhere in the NE.  Even out into 7 or 8 we can still see a system develop.  

thank you for the explanation!! and I hope everyone in your is feeling healthy!!

[sroc4]

Thanks Weather mom. My wife is on the tail end of the flu. Ran a fever for 6days. Frustrating to say the least.

[sroc4]

And look at the forecast for the 200hPa zonal wind anomalies after the 20th.  If it comes to fruition an area of divergence aloft(cool colors over 180*) will set up around the dateline.  Could we actually see convection at the dateline for the first time this winter?  

[Math23x7]

Using the 1981-2010 normals, the average temperature for March (42.5) is five degrees warmer than the average temperature for December (37.5).  Yet, the last four years, March has been colder than the preceding December:

December 2012: 41.5; March 2013: 40.1
December 2013: 38.5; March 2014: 37.7
December 2014: 40.5; March 2015: 38.1
December 2015: 50.8 ; March 2016: 48.9

December 2016's average temperature was 38.3.  It will be interesting as to what this March brings.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Using the 1981-2010 normals, the average temperature for March (42.5) is five degrees warmer than the average temperature for December (37.5).  Yet, the last four years, March has been colder than the preceding December:

December 2012: 41.5; March 2013: 40.1
December 2013: 38.5; March 2014: 37.7
December 2014: 40.5; March 2015: 38.1
December 2015: 50.8 ; March 2016: 48.9

December 2016's average temperature was 38.3.  It will be interesting as to what this March brings.

I was wondering if it was my imagination how depressingly warm the last several Decembers were. The above stats say it all, sad, and last winters December and March were just downright unfair.

[weatherwatchermom]

Thanks Weather mom.  My wife is on the tail end of the flu.  Ran a fever for 6days.  Frustrating to say the least.  

glad she is on road to recovery and I hope rest of household avoids that awful flu!!!

[dkodgis]

What is interesting, to me at least, is on my electric bill the average temp for the month/billing period is compared current to prior year. So Nov 17-Dec 19 bill for two years ago gives me an average of 31 degrees for 2014  and a year ago 38 degrees for 2015. Not exactly the same time period as all of December but for sure different temp averages.  I wonder where their numbers come from when they have such a wide area...an average of the service delivery area?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

What is interesting, to me at least, is on my electric bill the average temp for the month/billing period is compared current to prior year. So Nov 17-Dec 19 bill for two years ago gives me an average of 31 degrees for 2014  and a year ago 38 degrees for 2015. Not exactly the same time period as all of December but for sure different temp averages.  I wonder where their numbers come from when they have such a wide area...an average of the service delivery area?

Damian:

I'm pretty sure they use Poughkeepsie or Montgomery. Poughkeepsie is the only NWS reporting station in the HV for temperatures. Thankfully they no longer record snow totals there because they were historically horrible at it, even worse than Central Park. It also may be Montgomery, they are an airport and do report official numbers each day and 30 year averages.

[dkodgis]

And even my kids who were just turning six and ten in the fall 2013 remarked the other day how they remember "that terribly cold winter". They too wondered why last year was so warm and why it is not as cold this winter as they think it should be. As a teen I remember routinely seeing -20's in the winter. Our car tires would freeze at the bottom like a block and for half a mile, everyone's car tires would clunk until the rubber warmed up. Everyone had chains on their tires or studs and no one dared put on a parking brake lest it froze in place. I remember my father starting small fires under the oil pan to warm up the oil before starting the car as we had no garage. All winter long, we had cardboard in front of the radiator. Way different than Dec a year ago when we were outside all day on Xmas and got sunburned faces and arms because we were in tee shirts.

[algae888]

Next time frame to watch is the 25-27th. -epo and soi crash phase 1-2 mjo. Scott did you see the soi number today?. I would be a little hesitant to expect sixties anytime soon. Should get into the fifties on Saturday and then we back door cold front Sunday Monday and Tuesday temperatures probably in the forties. big cut off low pressure in Southeast Canada

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Next time frame to watch is the 25-27th. -epo and soi crash phase 1-2 mjo. Scott did you see the soi number today?. I would be a little hesitant to expect sixties anytime soon. Should get into the fifties on Saturday and then we back door cold front Sunday Monday and Tuesday temperatures probably in the forties. big cut off low pressure in Southeast Canada

Thanks for the ray of hope Al. This weekend will be trying times for many here and we all need a little hope in the distance.

[docstox12]

Great Al, thanks for that heads up.Even with a week burned to a torch, we still have 5 weeks more of snow time, even 6 if you add in the first week of April.The last few days was a near miss, those two pieces of energy could have come together and blasted us, it was close.Things can turn on a dime as evidenced with the snowstorm recently when it was 60 degrees the day before,LOL.

[docstox12]

Next time frame to watch is the 25-27th. -epo and soi crash phase 1-2 mjo. Scott did you see the soi number today?. I would be a little hesitant to expect sixties anytime soon. Should get into the fifties on Saturday and then we back door cold front Sunday Monday and Tuesday temperatures probably in the forties. big cut off low pressure in Southeast Canada

Thanks for the ray of hope Al. This weekend will be trying times for many here and we all need a little hope in the distance.

We're going to hit that 50 inches CP!!!!!!!

[sroc4]

Next time frame to watch is the 25-27th. -epo and soi crash phase 1-2 mjo. Scott did you see the soi number today?. I would be a little hesitant to expect sixties anytime soon. Should get into the fifties on Saturday and then we back door cold front Sunday Monday and Tuesday temperatures probably in the forties. big cut off low pressure in Southeast Canada

I certainly did Al. EPS is barking for that time frame Al. I agree we have to watch closely.

[Armando Salvadore]

It appears that the end of Feb will be active, as this shouldn't be a surprise given what has been brought to the table by Tom, Frank, Scott, Me, etc. Only issue i have with the 25th-27th period is that basically, we'll be coming off ++anoms with cold air completely void. However, it's during this time, we see our wave break/jet retraction/-EPO manifest, which leads me to believe that i think early march gives our best shot as the 18z GFS indicates. We'll see of course. Around the 25th, it looks like a solid plains snowstorm with severe weather associated with this event. 18Z GFS wants to transfer something, but eh, we'll see. The MJO propagation into the eastern hemisphere - specifically a phase 1-3 look, favors a stormy, active, and cooler period right in time for the very end of Feb into early march.

See how the ridge still is exiting over the northeast. BUT, look at the Canadian provinces and Alaska....



Then, verbatim we see this trough manifest over the east, which aligns nicely with the MJO.

[Snow88]

Wow 18z GFS is active

MJO is still traveling through 8 and possibly heading into 1 which is a cold and stormy phases for the coast. The soi is also crashing . It will be interesting to see if we can get into a stormy pattern later this month into early march.

[Radz]

Wow 18z GFS is active

MJO is still traveling through 8 and possibly heading into 1 which is a cold and stormy phases for the coast. The soi is also crashing . It will be interesting to see if we can get into a stormy pattern later this month into early march.

Was just thinking the same thing after looking at it- hopeful to say the least

[amugs]

Massive SOI drop -51, off JB site.


This is what Scott was talking about and MJONON EURO saying we go into phase 1 and then 2. If so it promotes an trough on the e at cost with stormy conditions.

The SOI though is a MASSIVE drop and it will have a MAJOR effect on us here about 8 days from now. HP all over the Austin N coast through Tahiti. 

Lastly El nino is forecasted to come back by Summer. Hoping ithis a weak to moderate Modoki one!

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