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Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 05, 2017 9:44 am

Good Morning,

Happy Game Day! I would love to see the Falcons win this one, but Tom Brady is quite the machine so I have a feeling it'll go to the Patriots. Should be a good game, enjoy!

So I had this elaborate write-up outlining Thursday's storm potential, but I accidentally closed my Chrome and lost the content. I'll keep this brief.

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th EURO_1

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th EURO_2

The EURO shows a weak low pressure well south of Long Island on Thursday morning. The differences between the EURO and GFS at the 500mb level is pretty widespread. As you see on these maps, the EURO involves a piece of energy that broke off the Polar Vortex and tries to phase it with the southern energy. However, the western ridge is modeled to collapse so the trough axis gets shunted east and deters amplification.

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th 5897368c4a73a

The GFS on the other hand has an all-out snowstorm. A Mothrazilla. This model has much stronger Pacific energy entering the country which keeps heights along the east coast higher compared to the EURO. The Baroclinic Zone on the GFS is already over our area on Wednesday, while on the EURO it's well south because the Pacific energy is too weak in the center of the country. There is also a front coming through on Wednesday which is bringing us rain. A weaker front would help keep the Baroclinic Zone over our area, as opposed to sending it south and east of us.

Moral of the story is, sampling of this Pacific energy will not be understood on the models until Tuesday. The GFS actually shows 2 separate pieces of Pacific energy which kinda feed off each other in developing a weak low off our area. There's a few combinations we can actually get it to snow pretty significantly here, which is pretty good because normally there is just one scenario. We can either rely on the various vorts coming out of the Pacific, or perhaps involve the Polar energy in some capacity.

I think we need to give this another 48 hours so we can see if models come to consensus on how they want to handle the 500mb level. Timing would be early Thursday morning. Potential is there for 6"+, but the lack of blocking and collapsing western ridge are large enough risks to not make this storm happen at all.

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Post by Snow88 Sun Feb 05, 2017 9:51 am

Nice writeup but the PNA is rising so there should be a nice ridge in the west.
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Post by sroc4 Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:19 am

Perfectly stated

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:36 am

Thank you Frank for the write up...one can only hope for a bit of good weather news!! I am sorry to hear your first draft was lost Sad I hope you have a wonderful Sunday and here's to good sampling on Tuesday!!
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Post by Armando Salvadore Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:37 am

Awesome post Frank, always right on the money when it comes to these systems. This could work, one major thing that we'll at least have is a fresh injection behind Wednesday's polar s/w event. Also, 50's tuesday and maybe touching 60 wednesday? Well, we'll see! Anyway, we've seen this before with that ridge collapsing, and also, we're going to be coming off a jet extension. So, basically, it comes down to timing as well. Do we get enough of a window to allow heights build so we can get some digging and rounding the bend? I like the chance at least!
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Post by Armando Salvadore Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:05 am

Now that is a favorable upper level jet streak! Trended stronger compared to 6z. Now, i know it's still Sunday and early, but this is actually not in a 10 day timeframe. Ridge axis is actually better too. We may just get the perfect timing.



Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th Gfs_uv11
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Post by jake732 Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:15 am

isnt the storm much weaker on the 12z?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:50 am

Heights flatten out west and the Pacific energy is less potent on the 12z GFS. Still manages 3-5" this run.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:58 am

@Snow88 wrote:Nice writeup but the PNA is rising so there should be a nice ridge in the west.

It looks like crap on today's GFS.

The CMC/UKMET also show a very weak wave.

So...keep your hope DOWN.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 05, 2017 12:02 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:Nice writeup but the PNA is rising so there should be a nice ridge in the west.

It looks like crap on today's GFS.

The CMC/UKMET also show a very weak wave.

So...keep your hope DOWN.
been the state of most of this winter i think.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 05, 2017 12:08 pm

GFS Ensembles look really good. Must be some heavy hitters.

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th IMG_7791.thumb.PNG.492cc2e6b325f8a26ae5fd08bf7b3686

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 05, 2017 12:12 pm

Thank for teh write up Frank and we shall see - wish this was 24hrs out instead of 100 hours.
GEFS are harping on the multiple wave train so we shall see. I will get excited come Tuesday afternoon 12z and then more 0Z night.

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th 58975b178d32c.thumb.png.e1e64657f9a2ce4b45d3f3e3fe50f76c

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Post by sroc4 Sun Feb 05, 2017 12:18 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:GFS Ensembles look really good. Must be some heavy hitters.

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th IMG_7791.thumb.PNG.492cc2e6b325f8a26ae5fd08bf7b3686

This looks pretty darn good for HR 90

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th Img_4311
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th Img_4312

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 05, 2017 12:32 pm

Need that cutter storm to be weaker so we dont push the baroclinic zone to far s & e or else you know the ramifications of this board. cherry bom

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Post by Snow88 Sun Feb 05, 2017 1:52 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:Nice writeup but the PNA is rising so there should be a nice ridge in the west.

It looks like crap on today's GFS.

The CMC/UKMET also show a very weak wave.

So...keep your hope DOWN.

Reminds me of the anafrontal wave last February. It kept on trending stronger as we got closer.
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Post by jake732 Sun Feb 05, 2017 3:01 pm

hello.....any update on the euro?? doesnt sound to good from the silence?
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Post by jrollins628 Sun Feb 05, 2017 3:20 pm

It's still there just weeker!!!!

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Feb 05, 2017 3:44 pm

Keep expectations in check 1-2/ 2--4 type
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Post by Guest Sun Feb 05, 2017 4:18 pm

Skins brother I hope you enjoy the Super Bowl. My expectations are if we get 1-3" or 2-4" no thank you. By the way NWS has our area for 45 and rain next weekend

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Post by billg315 Sun Feb 05, 2017 6:52 pm

Frank's "Snow Confidence Level" at the moment, does not inspire confidence in this storm.
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Post by amugs Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:58 pm

HUMINA HUMINA - PLEASE COME TO FRUITION MADONNE!!

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th Gfs10

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:01 pm

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th 5897f44212b45.thumb.png.3957303d1e1442485c60d69d99cbd6a6

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th GFS2.thumb.PNG.d3ae2fcda1ec4cfc840a493eb7d9b5a0

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:02 pm

STUPID GFS SUCKS YOU RIGHT BACK IN WITH THIS 0Z RUN!!

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Post by amugs Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:03 pm

Arctic air drops in behind it

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Post by jrollins628 Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:16 pm

Let us know about the CMC

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