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FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017: Discussions & Observations

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 09, 2017 11:23 am

@le88kb wrote:When will you guys have final  maps ?


No map from me. I agree with Scott's map and my thought's are in the scroll. General 3-6" area wide with locally higher amounts.

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Post by amugs Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:02 pm

UKIE DROPPED THE MIC...............

FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017:  Discussions & Observations   - Page 2 PA_000-072_0000.thumb.jpg.68453eb481785aec21e60cf046554e90

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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:09 pm

Well, obviously this looks awesome (INCREDIBLY AWESOME actually)...but could a much stronger Wave 1 interfere with Tuesday, by screwing with the blocking or something like that?

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Post by sroc4 Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:18 pm

@SENJsnowman wrote:Well, obviously this looks awesome (INCREDIBLY AWESOME actually)...but could a much stronger Wave 1 interfere with Tuesday, by screwing with the blocking or something like that?

It might actually enhace it

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:23 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@SENJsnowman wrote:Well, obviously this looks awesome (INCREDIBLY AWESOME actually)...but could a much stronger Wave 1 interfere with Tuesday, by screwing with the blocking or something like that?

It might actually enhace it

Shocked Laughing

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Post by mikeypizano Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:24 pm

Good thing my dealer called and has my power shovel fixed, my larger single stage has a broken ignition switch!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:29 pm

@amugs wrote:UKIE DROPPED THE MIC...............

FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017:  Discussions & Observations   - Page 2 PA_000-072_0000.thumb.jpg.68453eb481785aec21e60cf046554e90

Basically a half inch of qpf through most of the area almost 3/4 in a couple of spots, should translate to 3-6 like Frank and SROC have been saying unless ratios improve?
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Post by amugs Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:29 pm

GEFS for wave one -

FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017:  Discussions & Observations   - Page 2 FANTASTIC.thumb.png.d1d83218a2853390be29db9002d92eb6

Mean Percip close up - WOW for this storm!
FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017:  Discussions & Observations   - Page 2 Gfs-ens_apcpn_eus_6

850's
FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017:  Discussions & Observations   - Page 2 Gfs_T850_neus_5

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Post by amugs Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:30 pm

15MM to 20MM is .4 - 6" of qpf so basically 3 low end to 6/7 high end.

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Post by Nyi1058 Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:36 pm

This stuff gonna stick to the roads on LI?

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:44 pm

@amugs wrote:15MM to 20MM is .4 - 6" of qpf so basically 3 low end to 6/7 high end.

15MM is .6 and 20MM is .8.

A lot of the area is in the 10MM-15MM shade which would be .4 to .6, not sure if that's what you were trying too say. Snow seems to get you all excited, I wonder why Very Happy , so I didn't know if it was a typo.
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Post by SNOW MAN Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:57 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@amugs wrote:15MM to 20MM is .4 - 6" of qpf so basically 3 low end to 6/7 high end.

15MM is .6 and 20MM is .8.

A lot of the area is in the 10MM-15MM shade which would be .4 to .6, not sure if  that's what you were trying too say. Snow seems to get you all excited, I wonder why  Very Happy , so I didn't know if it was a typo.

Cp, he seems to do that a lot. (12-24' ?)
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Post by amugs Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:59 pm

Cp - yes I was typing as I am here grading etc. sorry peeps - 12-24' you complaining SNOW MAN hmm??
LOL

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Post by mikeypizano Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:01 pm

A teacher makin a mistake?!
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Post by SNOW MAN Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:02 pm

@amugs wrote:Cp - yes I was typing as I am here grading etc. sorry peeps - 12-24' you complaining SNOW MAN hmm??
LOL

NOPE. Very Happy
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Post by Dtone Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:03 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I think this is the kind of event where colder surfaces for obvious reasons get 3-5" while the paved surfaces remain slushy at best!!!  This will lead to really difficult decisions regarding school openings on LI.  I feel like there will be many 2 hour delays.  NYC metro and the 5 boroughs probably will not see any accumulations at all due to the heat island.  4" puts me at 40" which would be miraculous.  

ugh that UHI. March snowfalls are notorious for that. Scenarios like 0.2" on the NY side of the GWB but 3" in Ft Lee, then several inches going beyond that. Accumulations on only colder surfaces in the city is effectively no snow, unless your in a city park. One of the few situations where Central Park will measure more snow than what is actually encountered throughout NYC neighborhoods. The NWS says temps will be mostly steady in the low 30s while many other outlets calling for mostly upper 30s. Maybe nws is on to something

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:04 pm

@amugs wrote:GEFS for wave one -

FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017:  Discussions & Observations   - Page 2 FANTASTIC.thumb.png.d1d83218a2853390be29db9002d92eb6

Mean Percip close up - WOW for this storm!
FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017:  Discussions & Observations   - Page 2 Gfs-ens_apcpn_eus_6

850's
FRIDAY MARCH 10th 2017:  Discussions & Observations   - Page 2 Gfs_T850_neus_5

mugs top snow map is through hr 180, includes tuesday.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:35 pm

RPM paints a general 3 to 6" for the area as well. I think we see consensus, with the possibility of 6"+ for those just north of the baroclinic zone. That is where the greatest lift will be. Models differ where that boundary sets up though. We'll know tomorrow, obviously.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:45 pm

Haven't had much time to devote, so this may not work out too well (not to mention my AccuWeather Pro subscription expired on me!!!! So I'm without many of my go-to graphics >_<) Be as that may, here's a brief post ripped from my FaceBook:

Unfortunately, there won't be enough time for a map like normal, but expect a general 3-5" in the zone between I-84 on the north side and a line from Sandy Hook, NJ southwestward through Harrisburg, Pa on the south side. On the north side of that zone, there will be a very sharp cutoff in the snow within about 25 or 30 miles, such that outside those 25 or 30 miles don't expect much more than a dusting at most. To the south side of the 3-5" zone, warmer ground and air temperatures coupled with the dry nature of the snow should largely work to limit accumulations, even though the heavier snow will be across this region. Therefore, between the Sandy Hook-Harrisburg line and approximately along a line from the Mason-Dixon toward Island Beach State Park, I am expecting 1-3", with less than 1" south of there. If you're having trouble visualizing, generally the elevated areas north and west of I-95 and south and east of I-84 should receive the 3-5", with less than that elsewhere, put simply. Sorry for the lack of graphic!!

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Post by amugs Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:50 pm

Good stuff Ray - we have consensus amongst the us here..


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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 09, 2017 2:13 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Haven't had much time to devote, so this may not work out too well (not to mention my AccuWeather Pro subscription expired on me!!!! So I'm without many of my go-to graphics >_<) Be as that may, here's a brief post ripped from my FaceBook:

Unfortunately, there won't be enough time for a map like normal, but expect a general 3-5" in the zone between I-84 on the north side and a line from Sandy Hook, NJ southwestward through Harrisburg, Pa on the south side. On the north side of that zone, there will be a very sharp cutoff in the snow within about 25 or 30 miles, such that outside those 25 or 30 miles don't expect much more than a dusting at most. To the south side of the 3-5" zone, warmer ground and air temperatures coupled with the dry nature of the snow should largely work to limit accumulations, even though the heavier snow will be across this region. Therefore, between the Sandy Hook-Harrisburg line and approximately along a line from the Mason-Dixon toward Island Beach State Park, I am expecting 1-3", with less than 1" south of there. If you're having trouble visualizing, generally the elevated areas north and west of I-95 and south and east of I-84 should receive the 3-5", with less than that elsewhere, put simply. Sorry for the lack of graphic!!

I am without all my subscriptions too. We're in the same boat.


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Post by jake732 Thu Mar 09, 2017 2:46 pm

http://www.lakewood732.com/2017/03/friday-march-10th.html

Plz read and share with friends!! comment on it as im trying to get better and better and im looking for opinions
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Post by jake732 Thu Mar 09, 2017 2:52 pm

http://www.lakewood732.com/2017/03/friday-march-10th.html

Plz read and share with friends!! comment on it as im trying to get better and better and im looking for opinions
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Post by billg315 Thu Mar 09, 2017 3:12 pm

@jake732 wrote:http://www.lakewood732.com/2017/03/friday-march-10th.html

Plz read and share with friends!! comment on it as im trying to get better and better and im looking for opinions

Looks good Jake. I also tend to agree that the warm surface temperatures are going to disappoint us a bit in terms of how much snow actually piles up tomorrow.
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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Mar 09, 2017 3:15 pm

66 degrees here in Ocean County NJ just past 3 pm...I'm sticking with my gut feeling here for south of I-195...an inch at most of slushy mush. I'm ok being wrong, but I just don't see how this time around will have a different outcome from Feb 9, when it has the EXACT same set up. Maybe because the system is coming from the west and not the south?

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