Long Range Thread 14.0
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0
All eyes turn to the Big Storm upon us.
But what about the long range? Any more snow possible?
But what about the long range? Any more snow possible?
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0
dkodgis wrote:All eyes turn to the Big Storm upon us.
But what about the long range? Any more snow possible?
Yes, the GFS has another 2-4 inches on Saturday.
Re: Long Range Thread 14.0
For he's a jolly good fellow
That nobody can deny
That nobody can deny
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0
One more round??
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0
Doc, when would this possible event take place, Thanks.
SNOW MAN- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0
March 22-23SNOW MAN wrote:Doc, when would this possible event take place, Thanks.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0
SNOW MAN wrote:Doc, when would this possible event take place, Thanks.
If you look at the time stamp along the top of the images Snow youll see it says 06z Friday March 24th. So plus or minus 24hrs or so. This has a low probability at the moment of actually coming to fruition.
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0
Snow88 wrote:March 22-23SNOW MAN wrote:Doc, when would this possible event take place, Thanks.
Thanks Snow.
SNOW MAN- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0
sroc4 wrote:SNOW MAN wrote:Doc, when would this possible event take place, Thanks.
If you look at the time stamp along the top of the images Snow youll see it says 06z Friday March 24th. So plus or minus 24hrs or so. This has a low probability at the moment of actually coming to fruition.
Every model shows something which is amazing but not getting my hopes up until 1 day before this event if it happens.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0
I don't know if I have another one of these in me. lol. this has been a draining few days and while I didn't completely bust, I did come up short of expectations today. Ah, who am I kidding. Bring on one more. lol
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0
sroc4 wrote:SNOW MAN wrote:Doc, when would this possible event take place, Thanks.
If you look at the time stamp along the top of the images Snow youll see it says 06z Friday March 24th. So plus or minus 24hrs or so. This has a low probability at the moment of actually coming to fruition.
Thanks Doc. It just seems light Mother Nature wants make up for al of the warm weather. My Dad always use to say she always balances herself out.
SNOW MAN- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0
Oy, a big storm possibility? I am not looking at models for a bit only whats posted on here, too much to catch up on, do etc. Is it going to rain this coming weekend I heard?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0
jmanley32 wrote:Oy, a big storm possibility? I am not looking at models for a bit only whats posted on here, too much to catch up on, do etc. Is it going to rain this coming weekend I heard?
We're forecast for 3-5 inches snow Friday night Saturday morning,on TWC so who knows how accurate that is.
Not sure about by you.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0
The Euro and GFS both have a clipper for next weekend. I can't see it generating a ton of excitement.
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0
I posted about the clipper in the March thread.
As for the long range, temperatures look like they will average normal to below normal until we get into the final week of March. I am watching one potential large storm event around the 24th. I expect spring to come in full force the last few days of March especially by April.
As for the long range, temperatures look like they will average normal to below normal until we get into the final week of March. I am watching one potential large storm event around the 24th. I expect spring to come in full force the last few days of March especially by April.
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0
Frank_Wx wrote:I posted about the clipper in the March thread.
As for the long range, temperatures look like they will average normal to below normal until we get into the final week of March. I am watching one potential large storm event around the 24th. I expect spring to come in full force the last few days of March especially by April.
Please, I was hoping for March spring or at least half, lets give this big storm one more go around and get it for the coast this time. Inland got what we got all season in one storm. Not tracking anything 10 days out now, way too much to do, thanks for everything you all do, especially Frank for this gr8 site.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0
Frank_Wx wrote:I posted about the clipper in the March thread.
As for the long range, temperatures look like they will average normal to below normal until we get into the final week of March. I am watching one potential large storm event around the 24th. I expect spring to come in full force the last few days of March especially by April.
Any chance stuff will be green by April 14? When will you have an idea of what the weather will be like that day?
Sorry - it's my wedding and I'm getting anxious!!!
sabamfa- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0
sabamfa wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:I posted about the clipper in the March thread.
As for the long range, temperatures look like they will average normal to below normal until we get into the final week of March. I am watching one potential large storm event around the 24th. I expect spring to come in full force the last few days of March especially by April.
Any chance stuff will be green by April 14? When will you have an idea of what the weather will be like that day?
Sorry - it's my wedding and I'm getting anxious!!!
Totally awesome!!!! Definitely shoot me an email around April 1st and I'll give you a tentative forecast
njstrongwx@gmail.com
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0
Thank you, Frank!
sabamfa- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0
Right now, the WAA pcpn may offer the best opportunity for accum. The mid level vorticity is not sufficiently consolidated (best PVA offshore) and the currently progged upper jet structure even on the ECMWF is indicative of greatest divergence aloft too far east. The angle at which the mid level short wave approaches certainly favors a coastal brush or near miss east. One would want to see increased meridional propensities upstream such that the amplification occurs further southwest. The wave 5 is so far off that it isn't worth significant serious discussion at this point. Bottom line, I think we need noticeable improvements with the euro and significant alterations with most other guidance, if the desired outcome is a coastal storm. The WAA pcpn could yield a couple inches with conducive timing. We will see how this evolves. Down the road, geopotential heights will build across Canada with the jet cutting underneath, so the polar air will continue to be plentiful to our north. The good news is high latitude blocking is less pivotal at this time of year due to shorter wavelengths. Late season storm threats are usually a function of adequate cold air drainage/ ageostrophic flow coincident with upstream height rises to force cyclogenesis southward.
Re: Long Range Thread 14.0
Great stat hee North American snow cover, all time high for this
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0
start? no its supposed to b ending its spring no more, everything here is a brick it suxs.amugs wrote:Great stat hee North American snow cover, all time high for this
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0
Incredible pics Alex. Thank you.
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0
My Pleasure lol!Frank_Wx wrote:Incredible pics Alex. Thank you.
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0
El nino showing it is coming 2002-03, 09-10 and 04-05 style by thsee charts. Time will tell.
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