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Long Range Thread 14.0

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rb924119
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Post by Snow88 Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:54 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:I want a 2011-2012 winter repeat























...said no one ever

Or a 2001-2002

That winter was terrible Evil or Very Mad
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Post by amugs Fri Apr 21, 2017 10:35 am

@Math - I am not saying the warmth kid I MEAN THE COLD AND SNOW LOL!!!
The warmth is going to happen and yes Ray 1976 perfect analog for this when El Paso snowed and we baked in 90* temps - how frigged up is that.
Frank squared 11-12 winter sucked why that one?? Unless my memory went to the porcelain god this morning it was God awful forour neck of the woods.

For some Nino love look at this comparison between teh two of the Ocean temp anomalies - wow what a major difference between the Godzilla brewing Nino and the one that looks to be taking shape now - worlds apart

Long Range Thread 14.0 - Page 14 C94Ro56VYAAF8S9

Sun is active again and has been for the last few days but it had a very low to no stretch for about 8 days before this.

Long Range Thread 14.0 - Page 14 Planetary-k-index

POTENT CORONAL HOLE TURNS TOWARD EARTH: A large hole in the sun's atmosphere is turning toward Earth, and it is spewing a stream of fast-moving solar wind toward our planet. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed the giant fissure on April 21st:

Long Range Thread 14.0 - Page 14 Ch_strip

This is a "coronal hole" (CH) -- a vast region where the sun's magnetic field opens up and allows solar wind to escape. Gaseous material flowing from this coronal hole is expected to reach our planet on April 23rd or 24th and could spark moderately-strong G2-class geomagnetic storms. NOAA forecasters say the odds of a magnetic storm is 75%.


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:59 am

@amugs wrote:@Math - I am not saying the warmth kid I MEAN THE COLD AND SNOW LOL!!!
The warmth is going to happen and yes Ray 1976 perfect analog for this when El Paso snowed and we baked in 90* temps - how frigged up is that.
Frank squared 11-12 winter sucked why that one?? Unless my memory went  to the porcelain god this morning it was God awful forour neck of the woods.

For some Nino love look at this comparison between teh two of the Ocean temp anomalies - wow what a major difference between the Godzilla brewing Nino and the one that looks to be taking shape now - worlds apart

Long Range Thread 14.0 - Page 14 C94Ro56VYAAF8S9

Sun is active again and has been for the last few days but it had a very low to no stretch for about 8 days before this.

Long Range Thread 14.0 - Page 14 Planetary-k-index

POTENT CORONAL HOLE TURNS TOWARD EARTH: A large hole in the sun's atmosphere is turning toward Earth, and it is spewing a stream of fast-moving solar wind toward our planet. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed the giant fissure on April 21st:

Long Range Thread 14.0 - Page 14 Ch_strip

This is a "coronal hole" (CH) -- a vast region where the sun's magnetic field opens up and allows solar wind to escape. Gaseous material flowing from this coronal hole is expected to reach our planet on April 23rd or 24th and could spark moderately-strong G2-class geomagnetic storms. NOAA forecasters say the odds of a magnetic storm is 75%.


So Mugs does this correlate to warmer temps coming?
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Post by amugs Fri Apr 21, 2017 12:58 pm

For the sun activity yes hence which the maps/models are showing the warmth at the end of the month.

The top maps of the Pac Waters (20C Anomaly) show how the ocean in this area has cooled in a cross section view (like slicing a 7 layers cake and seeing all teh layers before yuo eat them LOL!) This is stating that the EL Nino will not be what we experienced by any stretch with this occurring UNLESS something major occurs in teh next few months but not going to happen (1% chance).

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by algae888 Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:33 am

Long Range Thread 14.0 - Page 14 C9KXu9LWAAA27kc.thumb.jpg.7d01c86cb47771388804439990b3bf02
nice west based nino coming. very early but some indicators looking positive for 2017-18 winter. low solar (positive). can we get the qbo to flip and has the +ao run it's course (4 consecutive years). time will tell. only 6 more months of warmth to get through!
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Post by amugs Wed Apr 26, 2017 1:26 pm

Where teh H was this in Jan and Feb ?? A strong based -NAO - ARRGHHH!!

Long Range Thread 14.0 - Page 14 C-V_-jeVwAAPbyy

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Snow88 Wed Apr 26, 2017 5:14 pm

^^^ Always happens
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Post by frank 638 Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:48 pm

Has anyone checked out AccuWeather for the summer outlook . They were saying we won't see extreme heat which is a good thing because I hate when it's very hot and humid and we will see more thunderstorms esp for June and July. For the tropical Outlook they never mention anything on that

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Post by amugs Thu Apr 27, 2017 8:59 pm

NAO gping to be temporarily but will bring cooler temps for the post warm spell we have in early May

Long Range Thread 14.0 - Page 14 Img_2031

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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