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BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

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Post by SENJsnowman Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:50 am

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Grselig wrote:I keep on waiting for the shoe  to fall and we get rain or nothing.  But based on  last nights Euro and NWS diso etc it seems like the laces are tightening.   Amazing.  
do u really think with Franks level of excitement and confidence tgat tgat is a issue? This storm is coming no dpubt and I am nodding towars all or nearly all snow as are many mets.
I also have that same fear too JMan. Most of us lived through that god awful heartbreak with March 2001 when models were in agreement inside 3 days for a historic event only to fail miserably. That event has taught me too temper my expectations with any snow threat. As each model run commences and we get closer to the event, the tension will rise. Today's 12z suite and more so tonights 00Z runs will be unbearable. In my opinion, if we are able to hold serve by Sunday's 12z suite, we will be good to go.

Not to mention the heartbreak of Jan 2015 for many of us. For 3 days, it was a matter of how many feet. I'll never forget Nick Gregory's final call map. He had this large swath of pure white across the whole NYC metro area: 2-3 feet! And this was at 6 pm the night of! Alas, the storm kicked too far east and the snow bands got destroyed on the way back to the shore. Northern regions (esp. NE) did just fine, but most of our whole area got 6" of backend snow and nothing else.

The moral of the story: It's looking good and it may yet look even better, just don't count them chickens!

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Post by billg315 Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:52 am

The models seem too consistent for this to be a miss. But exact track is still crucial so give it another 24 hours. That said, if this thing misses us after all this (like March 2001 for instance), it will definitely be categorized as a Bustzilla.
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Post by RJB8525 Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:53 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 22 IMG_0244.JPG.bf0e3808b01399222f40df1972f366f7

OY VEY

This took me a few minutes to do from my phone.

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 22 20170311_080541
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 11, 2017 8:11 am

Even accuwx app has already 5 to 11 inches with 40mph winds and often even though they are bullish not that 2 or more days away!
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Post by Grselig Sat Mar 11, 2017 8:16 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Even accuwx app has already 5 to 11 inches with 40mph winds and often even though they are bullish not that 2 or more days away!

I fear the mad rush to Home Depot and the grocery store will begin today. I got my salt from BJ's yesterday!
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Mar 11, 2017 8:16 am

Gefs have corrected and gone to euro look. Also here is the euro mean a lot of left leanersBLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 22 Eps_sl10
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Mar 11, 2017 8:20 am

SREFs are very nice. They lean just inside the BM. Man oh man this will be very close for the coast. Gotta smell the rain to see the heavy snow though. Whoever is just west of the r/s line will see Roidzilla amounts.

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 22 SREFSLPSpread09078.gif.0321af15ca40750253405692e47231f2

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Post by frank 638 Sat Mar 11, 2017 8:26 am

Even AccuWeather has me for 6 to 10 inches of snow for Tues into wed .

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Post by mikeypizano Sat Mar 11, 2017 8:30 am

I vote on naming this storm... Winter Storm... STUGOTS!
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Post by SENJsnowman Sat Mar 11, 2017 8:30 am

Hmmm...starting to look like HIGH risk/HIGH reward for the Jersey Shore... Rolling Eyes

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Post by frank 638 Sat Mar 11, 2017 8:32 am

What a great way to wake up I don't know if I am dreaming or this for real what a great way to wake up I have been checking out maps and post from last night to early this morning to me this feels like christmas week I am very excited for this storm even the two is hyped up

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Post by RJB8525 Sat Mar 11, 2017 8:33 am

@mikeypizano wrote:I vote on naming this storm... Winter Storm... STUGOTS!

STUGOTS
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Post by rb924119 Sat Mar 11, 2017 8:34 am

You know, I'm almost wondering if this could just end up looking more like a juiced up front. Not saying it will, just saying that I can see how it could go to that, and not really ball up with a classic comma-head structure until it reaches northern New England.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Mar 11, 2017 8:44 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:SREFs are very nice. They lean just inside the BM. Man oh man this will be very close for the coast. Gotta smell the rain to see the heavy snow though. Whoever is just west of the r/s line will see Roidzilla amounts.

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 22 SREFSLPSpread09078.gif.0321af15ca40750253405692e47231f2

Many people along the coast think it won't be much here I think they are wrong. Even with mixing issues don't you think its still a big hit?
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Post by Guest Sat Mar 11, 2017 8:44 am

@rb924119 wrote:You know, I'm almost wondering if this could just end up looking more like a juiced up front. Not saying it will, just saying that I can see how it could go to that, and not really ball up with a classic comma-head structure until it reaches northern New England.

What differences are there in terms of sensible weather?

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 11, 2017 8:49 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Gefs have corrected and gone to euro look. Also here is the euro mean a lot of left leanersBLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 22 Eps_sl10
so the euro has moved more towards coastal hugger ehile gefs are a bit further offshore. Switcheroo or a median meetup?
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Post by rb924119 Sat Mar 11, 2017 8:51 am

@TheAresian wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:You know, I'm almost wondering if this could just end up looking more like a juiced up front. Not saying it will, just saying that I can see how it could go to that, and not really ball up with a classic comma-head structure until it reaches northern New England.

What differences are there in terms of sensible weather?

Shorter storm with lower totals, but a true "fast and furious" event. Chances of coastal mixing would also likely be increased.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Mar 11, 2017 8:52 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Gefs have corrected and gone to euro look. Also here is the euro mean a lot of left leanersBLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 22 Eps_sl10
so the euro has moved more towards coastal hugger ehile gefs are a bit further offshore. Switcheroo or a median meetup?
No I think euro is just inside benchmark GFS is coastal hugger but like frank I think mentioned the GEFS ensembles were east in other words GFS is in its own camp.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 11, 2017 8:53 am

Wow upton has up to 6 to 8 just by 8am tues barely into the storm wowee. That's their potential for map less as I go east.
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Post by SENJsnowman Sat Mar 11, 2017 8:53 am

@frank 638 wrote:Even AccuWeather has me for 6 to 10 inches of snow for Tues into wed .

WOW...I just checked Accu for my local forecast: 8-12"! I think I'd give up some of the higher end potential for some certainty as to all snow...

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Post by Guest Sat Mar 11, 2017 8:56 am

Every map and site I've seen has a minimum 10" for here, except for AccuWeather which has a total of 3-6".

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Post by Armando Salvadore Sat Mar 11, 2017 8:57 am

Simply mesmerizing that now a single member of the 0z EPS has a SLP of > or equal to 1000mb within that mean! Going to be one of the strongest storms seen during this century thus far.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 11, 2017 8:58 am

@SENJsnowman wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:Even AccuWeather has me for 6 to 10 inches of snow for Tues into wed .

WOW...I just checked Accu for my local forecast: 8-12"! I think I'd give up some of the higher end potential for some certainty as to all snow...
Its early 8 to 12 is high at this juncture it will go up. Posdibly way up.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:00 am

@Armando Salvadore wrote:Simply mesmerizing that now a single member of the 0z EPS has a SLP of > or equal to 1000mb within that mean! Going to be one of the strongest storms seen during this century thus far.  
what was the lowest and where do u feel it will b at when it hits the area?
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:01 am

Wasn't sandy the lowest?
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