March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

ABC 7 JUST UPDATED THERE WEB SITE WITH AN AREA WIDE 1-2 FEET ZONE

heres Frank's email for those that arent signed up for newsletters:

NJ Srong Members -

I hope you're having an enjoyable Sunday. If you have spare time, I suggest getting a head start on preparing for Tuesdays winter storm.

This afternoons weather models showed outputs I have not seen many times in my lifetime. The short range models and foreign models show a powerful storm capable of paralyzing the area. The trend I'm seeing in the upper levels is for the sub tropical jet stream to be stronger, which means a stronger southern energy, and the mid level trough is sharper. The combination of the two develops a dangerous surface low pressure system, likely under 980mb, found off the coast of NJ. Snow rates could be anywhere from 3 to 5 inches an hour at times. Sustained winds of 30-40mph with gusts in excess of 70mph from NYC and points S&E. Snow accumulations ranging from 18 to as much as 36 inches (the 30+ snow amounts are confined to Eastern PA, NW NJ, and SW NY on latest guidance). NYC and points S&E could see some sleet or rain mix at times, but accumulations will remain well over a foot of snow. Power outages are a concern of mine, especially for NJ and NYC Metro.

Now, there's still a full day of model runs to digest and changes in track could lessen impacst. However, this is a very dynamic set up and I think the EURO, CMC, UKIE, AND short range models are showing these types of conditions for a reason. This evening I will have a synopsis and 1st call snow map on the forum. Please prepare yourselves and inform friends and family of what we could possibly be dealing with on Tuesday.

gambri wrote:heres  Frank's email for those that arent signed up for newsletters:

NJ Srong Members -

I hope you're having an enjoyable Sunday. If you have spare time, I suggest getting a head start on preparing for Tuesdays winter storm.

This afternoons weather models showed outputs I have not seen many times in my lifetime. The short range models and foreign models show a powerful storm capable of paralyzing the area. The trend I'm seeing in the upper levels is for the sub tropical jet stream to be stronger, which means a stronger southern energy, and the mid level trough is sharper. The combination of the two develops a dangerous surface low pressure system, likely under 980mb, found off the coast of NJ. Snow rates could be anywhere from 3 to 5 inches an hour at times. Sustained winds of 30-40mph with gusts in excess of 70mph from NYC and points S&E. Snow accumulations ranging from 18 to as much as 36 inches (the 30+ snow amounts are confined to Eastern PA, NW NJ, and SW NY on latest guidance). NYC and points S&E could see some sleet or rain mix at times, but accumulations will remain well over a foot of snow. Power outages are a concern of mine, especially for NJ and NYC Metro.

Now, there's still a full day of model runs to digest and changes in track could lessen impacst. However, this is a very dynamic set up and I think the EURO, CMC, UKIE, AND short range models are showing these types of conditions for a reason. This evening I will have a synopsis and 1st call snow map on the forum. Please prepare yourselves and inform friends and family of what we could possibly be dealing with on Tuesday.

Thank you. Your a life saver.

amugs wrote:RPM NOT WAVERING HERE - THIS SI WHAT JEFF SMITH ON ABC IS SUING SINCE YESTERDAY

                                                    Jumping Jehosaphat
                                                         

BGM UPDATE!!!

Taffy in toms river every model has me with at least 12 with crazy winds. The nws is just a terrible organization

EPS this afternoon give NYC Metro a 99% chance of seeing a foot or more of snow. This is the reason I pulled the trigger on Godzilla in advance. I can't believe the dynamics with this.

NWS New York is deciding where to put the Blizzard Warnings, I think they will soon post !!

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Frank will u also make a wind map. I think with the euro output it would b helpful to see what u think. I was spot on with the big windstorm and euro winds aren't that off this close in.

Yes.

Everyone please check your emails. I sent a newsletter. If you did not receive one...check your settings and make sure you're set up to receive my emails.

got ur email assuming winds of the magnitude u wrote of would b surround areas within nyc metro too like me. I want prepare elderly fsmily. The euro also showed those winds way inland. This is just crazy ex item and nervous same time. Looks like I'll miss chat tomorrow but ill.b check in.

"track17"]Taffy in toms river every model has me with at least 12 with crazy winds. The nws is just a terrible organization


I took a look and your NWS is out of Philly. You do have high wind watch and a storm watch in effect. Your winds seem to be pretty much in alignment with mine (Upton) but they are a bit less. I'm not at all good at this at all so it is confusing that they haven't issued a blizzard watch for you.

CHAT my students will have to participate!!

Blizzard warnings will shortly be issued by the NWS for over 18 inches of snow. I wonder where theyll place the warnings

Frank_Wx wrote:

EPS this afternoon give NYC Metro a 99% chance of seeing a foot or more of snow. This is the reason I pulled the trigger on Godzilla in advance. I can't believe the dynamics with this.

That is nothing short of sick Frank. Look at those area wide 12"+ amounts.....

amugs wrote:CHAT my students will have to participate!!

Have them register

Frank why such a low warning for me when all the runs showed up good for the coast?

The 15Z SREFs for LGA.  As Frank would say: MADONNE!

WeatherBob wrote:NWS New York is deciding where to put the Blizzard Warnings, I think they will soon post !!

NWS can SMD. Sorry, just sayin'....

NAMS up and running - can't wait to see what the PARA and HI RES have to show!!!

I'm guessing the warnings will b where watches are maybe more added.

Math23x7 wrote:The 15Z SREFs for LGA.  As Frank would say: MADONNE!

JUNO AND NEMO ??????

JUST SAYING - COUGH COUGH!

Hide your kids; Hide your wives; And hide your husbands too. Because it's going to be a blizzard everywhere around here.

nujerzeedevil wrote:

WeatherBob wrote:NWS New York is deciding where to put the Blizzard Warnings, I think they will soon post !!

NWS can SMD. Sorry, just sayin'....

careful man rules no bashing pro met I'm guessing frank will b talk u on tgst one.

Latest forecasts.

880 am radio 6-12 NYC east. 12-18" NYC west
Fox News 6-12 NYC east 12-18 nj 18-24 easternmost PA

Useless trash

NAM PARA HAS A MOISTURE FETCH FROM SNJ INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE GOM - HOLY SHT!!

syosnow94 wrote:Latest forecasts.

880 am radio 6-12 NYC east. 12-18" NYC west
Fox News 6-12 NYC east  12-18 nj 18-24 easternmost PA

Useless trash

No one is take seriously the met need go with wcs better safe than sorry.

Yes, please no bashing pro Mets or organization. Bash me

I have my WSW. No blizzard. I guess too far west.