March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

There are two important trends I am following at this time:

1) It seems models are inclined to track this storm JUST inside the 40/70 BM. How far west, or inside, the storm tracks will determine the precipitation type for NYC on south and east. NW NJ, Eastern PA, and NW NYC are in line for a Godzilla. No questions asked. And if the system does take the further west track you will see a Roidzilla with ratios. The GEFS, EURO Suites are more on the BM rather than inside the BM track. How much separation between the northern and southern energy there is will ultimately dictate the track.

2) Some models have it snowing over 24 hours, while others really hurry this system along. IF H5 CLOSES OFF AT OUR LATITUDE, then the system will slow down (especially with blocking HP's to our north) and snow over a long period of time resulting in greater snowfall amounts. If it does not close off, then there will be less dynamics and more of a STJ driven coastal low that delivers a quick 1-2" QPF in a short time period. I also fear this scenario would keep the coast mainly warm.

I think some people forget we have 3 full days of model runs left. I know it seems like we've been tracking this forever, and I went into Godzilla Storm Mode early (for good reason), but stay patient and watch trends. Do not take any one model run seriously. We have a long way to go before we nail down this track. I remain confident in an area-wide Godzilla. But of course I would love to see this turn into a area-wide Roidzilla. We still have time to get there. Something tells me we will. I just really like the way the blocking preceding this event configured the atmosphere.

I will be off most of today. Will try to come back tonight for some 00z model analysis. Tomorrow I plan on being here most of the day, especially mid to late afternoon. Then the chat at 9:00pm Sunday night. I may have another one on Monday.

Great thanks for this frank. Hopefully it does trend above a Godzilla i like u saying u think it will.

RPM getting into range

I admit that one reason I'm not overly concerned about mixing issues is that I'm far enough N and W that it would be minimal for me even if it's a problem at the coast. I've always thought mixing along the coast was a possibility and still do. I just don't think it prevents this from being a major storm even if it does. Some models with an inland track still give the shore several inches (except Cape May which could miss out if it was truly interior instead of offshore). I still believe this thing stays offshore enough to be predominately a snow event even for the coast, even with mixing. At the end of the day Frank and sroc are correct: too far out to panic or have agita over ANY individual model run.

In terms of nowcasting I can definitely see people within 20 miles of the coastline having to watch that rain-snow line's progression - or non-progression - like hawks midday Tuesday.

GFS running

that's understandable from Lee

Wunderground has issued a special statement that I could not link. They talked about the snow of course, but had a lot of emphasis on the extreme cold and wind. I'm getting excited.

12z GFS looks amazing. More separation between both branches of energy.

Incominggggg

[quote="SoulSingMG"]Coastal concerns via Lee Goldberg...

[/quote

Even after all pieces are over land and properly sampled, if the track is inside the BM, the margin of error would still lend itself to extreme caution on forecasting amounts for the immediate coast. I think its pretty safe to say north and west of I-95 will remain all snow as currently modeled...

Starts snowing by hour 66

Frankzilla verbatim for eastern PA...this is a cave to euro

I wonder if we will see a Frankzilla banner...

This CCB is insane

Awesomeness...

GFS is still fast and has some CF, but the track was fantastic. Madonne

Toss this run?

Step in the right direction for those at the coast!

Our leader has done what ever good leader does in time of nervousness and impatience- RIGHT THE SHIP.

I too have such a feeling this block that Isotherm and Armondo have been harping on for weeks now has come to fruition this bad boy is reminiscent of other major blocks and  storms with such ala 2010, 2011, etc.

I am doing to get my goods now son don't have to battle the silver heads.

Didn't love that run but that's why will drive myself nuts watching each run.