Re: March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

by Guest Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:36 am

I don't know if it means anything, but I was just checking out the HRRR 2m temps for the buildup and they're showing a bit warmer than the NAM has predicted. Is this a potential problem?

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:37 am

TheAresian wrote:I don't know if it means anything, but I was just checking out the HRRR 2m temps for the buildup and they're showing a bit warmer than the NAM has predicted. Is this a potential problem?

I think after today's 12z run we'll have a better idea of temps. We need to nail down the final track.

by **SNOW MAN** Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:38 am

How much have I got done at work today. ZERO !

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:39 am

Frank_Wx wrote:GEM-LAM, another good model, shows 40-50mm of snow over a large area and a swath of 50-75mm of snow over doc/CP land.

In comparison, total rain.

by Guest Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:40 am

I know it means nothing but stil......The rain panel of the GEM-LAM shows no rain over my house and a ton over Red Sox Suck. party

by **mikeypizano** Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:45 am

You know... If you have no work to do, you have nothing to worry about Wink

Now, if it snows like this, then I will be working!

by Guest Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:46 am

I wonder if Cantore is considering changing travel plans.

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:48 am

What's the consensus on a video production accompanying my first calls? Yes, no, maybe?

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:50 am

rb924119 wrote:What's the consensus on a video production accompanying my first calls? Yes, no, maybe?

Do it or you're fired.

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:51 am

rb924119 wrote:What's the consensus on a video production accompanying my first calls? Yes, no, maybe?

I mean, you're just gonna show a NEPA jackpot anyway.... Rolling Eyes

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:52 am

Expect this morning's SREF's to come in hot. Check out the SREF ARW mean

by **lglickman1** Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:54 am

Is there anything on the current upper level maps to suggest if this will trend east or west on the next runs?

by **mikeypizano** Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:54 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Expect this morning's SREF's to come in hot. Check out the SREF ARW mean

MADDONE!! I like what I am seeing here!

by **Armando Salvadore** Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:58 am

rb924119 wrote:The next frame: MY GOD

NE PA IS NUKED

RB, could you link me to this? Awesome product, and great illustration! The H7 fronto/thermal boundary induced and rapidly cooling of the low levels thanks aided by ageotrophic flow will truly illustrate the power of what a maturing extra-tropical cyclone can do, especially as it interacts and partially is phased with the upper low as well as the STJ. Water vapor is showing our pieces coming together, and believe it or not, but i just compared the 250-400mb potential vorticity on surface analysis with the GFS and EURO, and at this juncture, we have a current deepening shortwave and sharper than what the models had at around this time. The trend has been to deepen the trough and amplify the shortwave, which supports a track similar to what the EURO has, but in the end, i fully support a last minute shift east. Upper level trough axis especially west and not fully phased, does show support for my reasoning as well. Today is the day for last minute preparations and the best part about it all is the true anticipation of the evolution of what a beast, in the process of cyclone development, will do throughout the day!!!

by **SNOW MAN** Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:59 am

rb924119 wrote:What's the consensus on a video production accompanying my first calls? Yes, no, maybe?

How about doing both. Please. Video's won't play at work because our system is so outdated. Mad

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:01 am

I wonder if Cuomo will order any shut-downs. It's an epic storm but it's a fast mover (wish it would stall!)...but 3-4 inch an hour rates are impossible for plows to keep up with or for train tracks to be cleared...?

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:02 am

lglickman1 wrote:Is there anything on the current upper level maps to suggest if this will trend east or west on the next runs?

Hard to say because H5 maps look similar at this juncture, but I believe the tucked in solution the EURO/UKMET show is close to where I think this will track.

by **SENJsnowman** Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:03 am

Armando Salvadore wrote: The trend has been to deepen the trough and amplify the shortwave, which supports a track similar to what the EURO has, but in the end, i fully support a last minute shift east. Upper level trough axis especially west and not fully phased, does show support for my reasoning as well.

That's all I needed to hear! A climatological, atmospheric reason for hope from an acknowledged upper-air all-star!

by **aiannone** Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:06 am

Looking good here in Binghamton! I'm excited! Don't often get to cash in on these coastal storms. Upton seems to be keeping North Shore of LI mostly snow with possible mix with sleet and the south shore and east end with a change to rain

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:08 am

WOW - CHECK OUT THE NEW SREFS. CAUTION: They may be warm for coast. Waiting on temps.

NEW SREFS

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 14 SREFNE24Precip09039

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 14 SREFNE24Precip09039

Compared to last run

March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis - Page 14 SREFNE24Precip03045

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:09 am

SNOW MAN wrote:How much have I got done at work today. ZERO !

At least you're getting paid. I've had my own business the last 20 years and bill my clients hourly, for the last 5 days all invoices going out have the same amount $0.00. When we can't pay the mortgage this month I'll just point outside and tell my wife and kids yeah but look at all that beautiful snow.

by **docstox12** Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:12 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:How much have I got done at work today. ZERO !

At least you're getting paid. I've had my own business and bill my clients hourly for the last 5 days all invoices going out have the same amount $0.00. When we can't pay the mortgage this month I'll just point outside and tell my wife and kids yeah but look at all that beautiful snow.

LOL, hey, look at the bright side!! If those bands set up, you can build a family igloo and throw the keys at the bank!!

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:12 am

Armando Salvadore wrote:
rb924119 wrote:The next frame: MY GOD

NE PA IS NUKED

RB, could you link me to this? Awesome product, and great illustration! The H7 fronto/thermal boundary induced and rapidly cooling of the low levels thanks aided by ageotrophic flow will truly illustrate the power of what a maturing extra-tropical cyclone can do, especially as it interacts and partially is phased with the upper low as well as the STJ. Water vapor is showing our pieces coming together, and believe it or not, but i just compared the 250-400mb potential vorticity on surface analysis with the GFS and EURO, and at this juncture, we have a current deepening shortwave and sharper than what the models had at around this time. The trend has been to deepen the trough and amplify the shortwave, which supports a track similar to what the EURO has, but in the end, i fully support a last minute shift east. Upper level trough axis especially west and not fully phased, does show support for my reasoning as well. Today is the day for last minute preparations and the best part about it all is the true anticipation of the evolution of what a beast, in the process of cyclone development, will do throughout the day!!!

Sure man! Here:

http://www.wxcaster.com/isentropic.htm

It's great to get a large sense of moisture transport and an idea of where the best lower-level forcing will line up, in my opinion. Also, here's his snowfall page:

http://wxcaster.com/regional_snowfall.htm

by **SNOW MAN** Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:13 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:How much have I got done at work today. ZERO !

At least you're getting paid. I've had my own business and bill my clients hourly for the last 5 days all invoices gong out have the same amount $0.00. When we can't pay the mortgage this month I'll just point outside and tell my wife and kids yeah but look at all that beautiful snow.

You can come to my house after the storm and shovel. I'll give you a dollar and if you do a really good job I'll make 5.00. What do think ? Good deal right.

by **mikeypizano** Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:14 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:How much have I got done at work today. ZERO !

At least you're getting paid. I've had my own business and bill my clients hourly for the last 5 days all invoices going out have the same amount $0.00. When we can't pay the mortgage this month I'll just point outside and tell my wife and kids yeah but look at all that beautiful snow.

Take your snow blower and blow off driveways like I do in winter! Wink

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:15 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:What's the consensus on a video production accompanying my first calls? Yes, no, maybe?

Do it or you're fired.

Well.............I guess I don't really have a choice in the matter ahaha

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:16 am

The SREFs are very warm. They have learned warm for the entire storm though. I mean, the 850mb line gets into CT which is kinda extreme. Let's see what the 12z packages say today. SREFs contain data from early morning.

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